Seeking Alpha
  • Andreas Hopf
    $ALU profit taking in "boring" run-up stock increases in Europe. Bubble stocks, in comparison, still seen as enticing.
    3/17/14
    Reply (29)
    • MWB1: AH u always cry over $NOK dead money and NOk back 31 OCT...ALU is exactly 2nd OCT price ...:) i expect some comments from you or at least ..
      3/18/14
    • MWB1: ...stop crying over NOK :P ...... don't be angry i just follow your comments for long so i want some explanation as your reader :P
      3/18/14
    • Andreas Hopf: European reporting consensus seems that ALU, ERIC, NOK suddenly face very difficult times because of Russia, China, South America...
      3/25/14
    • Andreas Hopf: ...whereas the outlook in November/December seemed that the entire sector is poised for tremendous growth. Hence, big investors unload...
      3/25/14
    • Andreas Hopf: ...stock, having enjoyed outrageous profits since late 2012. Understandably so. I will, cash permitting, buy ALU, ERIC and NOK when...
      3/25/14
    • Andreas Hopf: ...fully beaten down due to the world situation, because one thing is certain: data traffic volume is ever increasing, faster and faster.
      3/25/14
    • Andreas Hopf: Eventually, maybe not as soon as predicted in 2013, carriers all over will have to further upgrade, enhance and speed up their networks.
      3/25/14
    • BruceLee1984: alu if it drops to 3.50 I may nimble on some, difficult times in china? dont think so china mobil just handed out 4g licenses recently.
      3/25/14
    • BruceLee1984: i think alu stock is being illegaly manipulated. there has been nothing but good news from the company....
      3/25/14
    • Andreas Hopf: No. The majority of ALU is traded in Europe. And here, the China drama and emerging markets drama make investors take profits. Look at...
      3/25/14
    • Andreas Hopf: ...what will happen in China this year - very bad. Look at Brazil, or Thailand or Vietnam, all seeing extremely hard times ahead.
      3/25/14
    • Andreas Hopf: Carriers will now rather delay network build-out, hence almost no new contracts have emerged during the 1st quarter. That's bad news.
      3/25/14
    • BruceLee1984: alu does not need new contracts the goal of the shift plan is to improve profitability which the company can due regardless of new contracts
      3/25/14
    • BruceLee1984: which combes has been doing, this stock is 40 cents lower then they reported earnings its unfair and total b.s. the company is not going awa
      3/25/14
    • BruceLee1984: people are still using there smart phones at a record pace and data is being consumed more then ever the fears are way overblown.
      3/25/14
    • BruceLee1984: and all the anylasts price targets are much higher then where alu is trading.
      3/25/14
    • BruceLee1984: and they have announced new contracts did you not see the mobil world congress...they announced back in february something with telfonica
      3/25/14
    • BruceLee1984: also back in february a announcment to boost verizon LTE network, and read this recent article from combes http://bit.ly/1fXUKBA
      3/25/14
    • BruceLee1984: one final point if thats the case that spending has been curved why is alu the only stock suffering ericsson, and NSN have been holding up.
      3/25/14
    • Andreas Hopf: I think, investors rationale is simply: less contracts, China less contracts in the near future, South American carriers won't pay timely.
      3/25/14
    • Andreas Hopf: As for ERIC, I said in December: the world leader is not dead, only sleeping : )
      3/25/14
    • BruceLee1984: fair enough andreas where do you see alu by end of year in your opinion, it started the year at 4.40 its now 3.71.
      3/25/14
    • Andreas Hopf: If the network build-out really stalls as it looks in most regions (each with its own problems, political or economical), I expect €2.60...
      3/25/14
    • Andreas Hopf: ...despite Michel Combe's valiant efforts. Big investors probably look elsewhere now. My HPQ and other "old man" stocks just rise and rise.
      3/25/14
    • BruceLee1984: thats about where its trading roughly now well actually its at 2.70 euro. What I dont like is everyone forgets about the shift plan the
      3/25/14
    • BruceLee1984: company should improve on its financial metrics no matter what with the job cuts, asset sales and other cost cuts, that to me should make
      3/25/14
    • BruceLee1984: alu a little bit more valued then where it is. it only trades at about 0.5 times sales.
      3/25/14
    • BruceLee1984: not to mention recently two weeks ago or maybe last week alu got upgraded with a 5.50 target price, sure would be nice to see that!
      3/25/14
    • Andreas Hopf: Here €2,72 today, so you see how the €/$ FX is distorting things, especially for us investors in U.S. stocks. The € gained 7.8% in one year.
      3/25/14