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Andrei Tratseuski
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Andrei Tratseuski currently works as a Currency Analyst at Forex Club LLC. Andrei was a key speaker at 2011 New York and Dallas Trader's Expo, his work appeared in variety of publication both online and print. Recently Andrei's commentary appeared on WABC Radio,, MarketWatch,... More
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  • Labor Market is Looking Rosier for USD and the economy
    The Euro has been all over the place as of late, unable to find any type of momentum on either side. Staggered in the range trading zone, the Euro is anticipating more information to come to the market place. Currently retail traders are net short the Euro, according to the latest Commitment of Traders report. Nonetheless, the picture might be changing in the upcoming future as latest US government extended tax cuts as well as a probability of QE2 being extended past initial $600 Billion has intensified. Overall, the fiscal and monetary actions by the US authorities put a negative notion on the future prospects of US Dollar. Nonetheless, the Euro is continuing its slide to the downside as rare positive data in the United States has pushed the greenback to the upside. Unemployment claims has slid to the lowest level since August 2008. Unemployment claims have been on the downtrend projections for considerable time now. This bodes well for the US economy which has seen labor prospects in shambles.

    Fed Chairman Bernanke has commented that in order to gain all of the lost jobs during the latest downturn of the economy will take approximately 4 to 5 years. Furthermore, the latest NFP figures did not paint a rosy picture as merely 39,000 jobs were added while unemployment escalated to 9.8%. Bearing the negative notions about labor market, a drop in unemployment claims is the first positive notion for the US economy, allowing a steady rally in the greenback. Nonetheless, a negative notion still persists in the market place as wholesale inventories rose to 1.9%, suggesting that the upcoming Holiday shopping season might be in trouble. Slow or negative growth in retail sales can be detrimental to further US Dollar weakening.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
    Dec 09 1:06 PM | Link | Comment!
  • US Government is throwing a Hail Marry
    The Euro has escalated on risk appetite flows as traders beginning to turn their attention to problem in the United States. The sovereign debt issues are certainly fading out of traders’ minds for the time being. In reaction, the United States Dollar is becoming underperformer during this week. The United States Dollar was further influenced by fiscal concerns. The US government chose to extend “Bush-Era” taxes, in the cost of $900 Billion. Currently, US authorities are throwing “Hail Marries” in order to spur the economy. With tremendous amount of funds going into securing a robust recovery of the economy, traders are becoming weary of inflation risk and possible downgrade of credit ratings. The tide has slowly begun to shift to trouble in the US once again. The following situation would increase US debt by $1 Trillion in 2011, clearly a negative notion for the currency in the long run. Currency tends to lose value whenever the government is running a huge fiscal deficit. Making the situation worse, California Governor and a long time cinema star Arnold Schwarzenegger announced California to be in a state of emergency. California being one of the most desperate and biggest states supports a negative outlook for credit of the country. Leading into 2011, with fiscal and monetary policy running its current course, we might see a substantial weakening in the currency. On economic side, we had seen a rise in German Factory Orders coming in at 1.4%, rising from a contraction of 4% in the previous month. On technical aspect of the picture, we believe that yesterday’s resistance level will continue to hold.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
    Dec 07 11:04 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Bernanke's Pessimism Does Not Matter for Dollar Rally
    In the midst of low volatility, the EUR/USD continued its downward movement. Spurred by the lack of economic events for the remainder of the day, the currency market will without a doubt have low volatility until the Asian Session. The United States Dollar rally against its Euro counterpart came as European data continued to show progress to the downside. With sovereign debt issues still lingering throughout the region, the investments flowing through the region are slowly coming down. Sentix Investor Confidence, a gauge of investing activity in the Euro-zone, slipped to 9.7 from 14.0 printed in the previous month. The United States Dollar failed to weaken after Federal Reserve Chief Ben Bernanke signaled that Quantitative Easing 2 will be in excess of $600 Billion previously allocated. Bernanke appearing on an interview yesterday warned that the United States economy is near levels on which it can no longer support itself. Continuing with his pessimistic rhetoric’s, Fed’s Governor pointed that it will take at least 4 to 5 years for the United States to gain all of the jobs lost during the recent downturn. Approximately, 8 Million jobs were lost during the recent recession, only over 1 Million jobs were added back since then in a cost of QE1 and QE2. Friday’s Non Farm Payroll figures did not paint a rosier picture as merely 39,000 jobs in November. However, the United States Dollar remains in relative uptrend outperforming against all other counterparts. Bearing a downtrend in mind, we turn to technicals to derive desired levels of support and resistance. Currently, lower1st Standard Deviation of the Bollinger Bands will act as a strong support level which is lingering at 1.3200. In the mean time, 20-day Simple Moving Average will act as a strong resistance level placed at 1.3400 as EUR/USD failed to clear that level for 3 consecutive sessions.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
    Dec 06 10:42 AM | Link | Comment!
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