Andrew Bowden

Long/short equity, long only, growth, growth at reasonable price
Andrew Bowden
Long/short equity, long only, growth, growth at reasonable price
Contributor since: 2012
Company: Bowden Web Design
SSYS $117/share!! Bet you are loving me if you bought when I told you to :)
$18 a share right now!
Thank you for the article, very elaborate!
$3.60 today
Excellent article, thank you :)
I would sell 1/3 of your onvo and initiate a long position in SSYS at a solid pullback under $60. DDD is a good buy as well, I haven't done as much research into this company, but it is definitely on my watchlist. I wanted to go long at $23 earlier this year, but lack of funds prevented it. I am waiting for a pullback under $35 to go long.
Thanks for the informative article. Was long cxs , took profits looking to go long agnc at $31
thank you, I got in at $35 and $49, took some profits at 73 by selling half. hoping the high p/e gives me a good buying opportunity
Thanks for the article. Interesting heads up on FB, the fundamentals are so weak I thought we might see them at least trade at 50x earnings. That chart looks ready for a bounce if it stays over $20
Nice title
Your revenue growth model for ATVI is obsurd.. What is your video game sector stock play? They topped estimates and will bring back some users with the new expansion as usual. Margins squash all competition as well a promising dividend with plenty of space to gain. black Ops 2 is supposed to be the most innovative cod yet, and I am positive we see a new all time record. Many also forget how limited ATVI's presence in the mobile market is. They have many untapped revenue streams which they will continue to expand to.
Thanks everyone for the supportive comments, I appreciate it! I am hoping for another drop to $1.60. I'll triple my position this time around, that bounce came quick!
@Mathias - I have the link embedded in one of the paragraphs near the chart.
@Andrew - Microsoft would acquire Nokia before betraying them. Management has a strong interpersonal relationship, they are both highly reputable businesses that will prosper simultaneously on Windows Phone.
Thank you for the informative article.
@ illuminati ... Activision definitely has a stronger name that must be a joke. Agree with your other points
Ok I did misunderstand you on the console transition. If competition is on the decline and Activision weathers the storm the best, this is another reason to own the stock. A company with 0 debt, consistent growth and several different games to choose from is going to go up with time.
While for some people Free-to-play isn't a FAD, for me it was. I tried several f2p MMORPGS the majority out of Asia; which were lackluster. I have also tried many pay to play series like Warhammer, Aion, Star Wars and none of them have managed to retain their user base like World of Warcraft has. Many people go try these f2p games to try and save money, and end up going back to WoW. I didn't mention the declining subscriptions because I believe that is already accounted for in the share price. According to the shareholder q1 conference call, management thinks the decline has bottomed and they started regaining users this year. The Diablo 3 pre-order package should aid this idea. Q2 Earnings are in a couple of days, and we should see evidence of that.
@ Bane - Thank you for the critique, although I disagree with you on a variety of your statements. I do agree that they are the best Video Game Publisher!
1.Please source your evidence for on the end of the console industry? The fact that there are still Xbox 360's selling and a 720 in the near future disagrees with you. The console may evolve to more a home entertainment system, but that won't hurt the game industry.
2. I personally like Diablo and the Auction house, maybe you are just bad that's why you don't like the game. No offense, it just seems the kids that can't beat inferno get angry and quit.
3. Battlefield was O.K, not the game-changer EA spoke of. You can look at sales volumes and active users to see the decline since the release. Call of Duty has grown substantially since inception, please link your source for the overall user decline.
4. Free to play games are FAD's. Those games can't afford to evolve and develop more content like Activision does. Even Runescape had to become pay-to-play to support its expansion. Not to mention in World of Warcraft it is now free to play up to level 20.
5. Social gaming is not a meaningful source of revenue for Activision as of yet. Further more, these games (Zynga Words with Friends, etc..) are a whole different game style. They are not stealing gamers from Activision, (except maybe for an hour so I can take my turn in Draw Something against a few friends.)
6. I actually included the potential sale in my draft article, it took a bit to get this published so I may have submitted a different draft on accident. For which I apologize.. Vivendi is also trying to sell another one of their businesses' because they may be strapped for cash. If they were to be acquired by Microsoft then it would be a positive for Activision. I list the reasons above in a comment responding to another seeking alpha user.
@Artful - Thanks, I will look more into (PWRD) Off the top of my head, I like the margins and expected growth rate!
Long HAL as well, sold SLB a bit early. Thanks for the article
Above is a link to a synthetic larynx that has been succesfully transplanted! I think with the world as competitive as it is, we could see the full thing in 5 years. Don't forget how smart we are making A.I
I don't doubt human innovation, every other thing you may have seen as Sci-Fi is already in the works.
Below is a link to some of the dream projects for 3D printing in the near future.
I don't see it going below the initial offering price, if it does I will be buying a lot!
Thank you for the solid, informative article! Long (NOKIA)
@Hass - I apologize you are right, I just found it funny that you really thought I was paid by Activision to write this article. I suppose I'll take that as a compliment.
@Haas - You aren't worth the effort in debating. Moron..
Thanks Jason
I know you did not buy it because Seth did. I also bought Vivendi prior to finding out he bought shares, I was agreeing that it was good confirmation in our investment. The Call of Duty franchise has been growing every release. Revenue from the series has continued to grow tremendously and the game is becoming more popular every sequel. Now, it is true that some game publishers are seeing drops in profitability, however Activision is not. They continue to have an onslaught of blockbuster games which they monetize in several ways besides game sales. They are just stepping into China with Call of Duty, so a whole new revenue stream is incoming.
I agree that Sony's Playstation is in danger of failure, however I think Microsoft is doing the right things with Xbox. Kinect was a hit, and the Xbox 720 will surely do well. Microsoft has the right idea by making the Xbox console a multi-use entertainment system, that can now act as a computer! If Microsoft acquires (ATVI) they will have an immense control over the video game industry - and its future profitability. It's hard to dispute that Microsoft doesn't know how to make money.. I am long (MSFT) as well.
Thank you for the article as it only bolsters my confidence in my investments. I agree with your consensus on Activision and EA completely. In my article below I explain my bullishness for ATVI with detailed descriptions on why the company is so profitable and in depth coverage on its game portfolio. Thought you might be interested in reading it as I elaborate on (ATVI) beyond fundamentals.
Thank you for the comments, I am glad to see many investors long ONVO for the long-haul. I have doubled my position today at $2.15
@ Delta - I am also concerned with Vivendi's sell of (ATVI) They would not be selling this amazing company if they weren't in dire need for cash. I am also concerned on how France's socialist regime may hurt the companies growth (Immense corporate taxation) may hurt its telecom company.
@ Jason - I enjoyed reading your article and agree with your consensus on Vivendi being undervalued. I also have read the Margin of Safety by Seth Klarman and have been a fan of his investment ideals. Many investors prefer to steer away from Guru choices, but assuming Klarman bought into Vivendi (Between $20-22) according to his time of purchase, I think we are O.K following in his footsteps. I do not believe the gaming industry has hit a peak, especially Call of Duty. Call of Duty : Black Ops 2 will be a smash hit, as many gamers prefer this series over Modern Warfare. Blizzard has events like BlizzCon and tournaments that no other game publisher can boast. Starcraft 2 and Diablo 3 are also evidence of a booming PC game market. I don't agree with the assumption that they will not continue to do well, once the company reports earnings for Q2 you will agree with profitability. Diablo 3 is also torturing players by postponing Player vs Player content which for me and many others was the biggest draw for Diablo 2.
@Monchito - I know that mobile gaming is nowhere near full monetization, and while ATVI may be a laggard in this industry; they have the resources and strong customer loyalty to make a strong presence when they release a mass appeal game. Activisions problem in the mobile industry may also be accredited to the lack of computing power to handle their game titles. I would LOVE to have Starcraft on a tablet one day, Moore's law has held strong so this is a possibility one day.
@Dividend - So what do you suggest as a good video game investment? I see no viable threat to Activision nor Blizzard, please go in more depth on your critique..
@Stock Jackal - Thank you, I enjoyed your bearish article on ATVI as you were correct on your analysis (temporarily). It goes without saying that a company that has no debt and dominant market share will go up with time. I also think that in the future when gaming goes to new levels (3D , Virtual, etc.) that Blizzard will be at the forefront. I see a future where Call of Duty becomes so realistic we could see regulation!
@Artful - Thank you
@Mkablo - I fully disagree with your assumption. EA is no Activision and this is evident by the first chart in my article. You can also look at a 5 year chart, margins, global presence - to see why.
@McConicle - Those industries cannot be compared to ATVI.. Blizzard and Activision have dominated the gaming world since the 90's and this isn't going to change. They have the experience and money to innovate more than any of their competition.
I did as well Shane, agree 100%. I am a buyer under $3.50 though, even as depressing as it was watching share prices tumble over the span of a few hours.
@ Goman - very interesting article. If they can print organs with their methods i'll be astounded and become an investor haha. Organovo has already got veins printed out and is probably working on prototype organs already. I find it hard to imagine that the method described in the article is anywhere near fruition with more complicated cell structures like Organs. Certainly I don't think they are ahead of Organovo. It is possible that they accomplish it first, however without huge funding, a stellar management team, and innovative lab technology I don't see them beating Organovo to the punch.
@Maj - Here is some more info on Keith Murphy's experience at Amgen
Some interesting links discussing Keith Murphys relationship with Amgen. I am not sure how to value this as a possible buy-out candidate as I hope they are a long-term name and don't sell out.
I agree that fundamentally Organovo (ONVO) doesn't add up. However, it goes without saying that speculative bio-techs are often subject to this kind of frenzy trading. Shorting ONVO might not be a bad play for a limited time and is an opportunity to go long when shares get to a good buy level around $4. In my article where I write about (SSYS) and (ONVO) it was not in comparison, it was meant to be informative. I am long both companies and consider Stratasys a better play short term due to their rapidly growing revenue streams and new merger with Objet so I now have $40 buy target. I also wrote that Organovo is a long term investment that I plan on holding for a while before taking gains. I credit the huge burst in share price to new awareness to the company and its patented break-through 3D bio printer. Organovo started off as a micro-cap and has yet to be discussed on CNBC; when they gain more publicity more shareholders will be driven to the stock. So while I agree it is early to make this more than a speculative play; you could end up regretting not getting in this one for the long run. The implications of a printer replicating live cells and soon hopefully organs, can't be held lightly. If Organovo can manage to create replacement organs (they are already perfecting tissues) then they could end up as one of the biggest companies of our generation. Organovo already has many partnerships in the line-up with an experienced management team. They have made great strides to hire new strategic and financial officers who have experience operating publicly traded companies. The CEO Keith Murphy has a long standing relationship with Amgen which could be another source for funding. Amgen could be a future buy-out prospect too (although I think Organovo knows their bio printers can't be valued right now.)
Thank you for the correction on that IPO fact Alexandre.
Fundamentally it is overvalued no doubt, but the potential far exceeds ANY other technology I've ever heard of. Correct me if i'm wrong. We Saw $10 yesterday as well. I've had some extremely impressive returns already as well; but selling now could be the worst mistake of your life if they accomplish the "Impossible".
So Alexandre, my answer to you is, 1. Bio-Tech Speculation-. 2. Organ Transplants!? 3. 3D BIO PRINTING? 4. Contract with Pfizer? 5. A thousand dollar investment in February would have you sitting with almost 10K right now. Wait ten years, what if it's 100k? I can't bring myself to sell it, and any chance I get under $5 I'm a buyer. I wouldn't recommend buying at $10 a share of course, fundamentally you would be a fool. On the other hand, you sit around holding the bag on a dip, you may live to regret it.
Also, fundamentally the stock is a SELL right now, but I want to invest in the company not to make a quick buck, but to help them succeed too. The new capital they have received from the public attention is going to help them accelerate their tech even faster!
Thank you for the article Shane, some good points you made in particular about HPQ's need to be involved in 3D printing. Ten years down the road if they don't have a 3D printer operation going, they won't be doing very well. I agree that they should try and buy (DDD) or ( now before the companies boom and have no desire to sell. There are companies also using massive 3D printers to build infrastructure for real estate, the benefits and future implications of 3D printing outweigh the costs no doubt.
Objet is a smaller scale printing company. I believe the merger with Stratasys will help both companies as they will now have a small scale printer and an industrial sized. They also now have global presence with a new headquarter located in Israel. 3D systems is a solid company as well, one I would buy at $22-23. The company is still pretty new and has a high debt to equity of 53 while Stratasys has 0 debt. There is a growing demand in both markets, just because small scale growth is high demand, doesn't mean large scale isn't. Large scale may actually prove even more useful in the long run, there is already housing projects underway using 3D printers to build the infrastructure.
They went public at the low entry cost because it is still a speculative investment, this allows for retail investors to get in at low risk. Look at the stock today. $5.25, This is the kind of investment you hold long term, the technological implications of Organovo's 3D bio printer can't be overlooked. I'm long with this company for at least 5-10 years unless things go south.