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Andrew Butter  

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  • BUBBLEOMIX Says Oil Will Bottom At $60 Brent And Won't See $90 Until 2018: Meanwhile The Saudi's Are Saying 'Thank You Very Much' [View article]
    I disagree about shale oil - they are short-term players see my previous article, they will be fine - just go on holiday for a few years
    Dec 12, 2014. 10:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BUBBLEOMIX Says Oil Will Bottom At $60 Brent And Won't See $90 Until 2018: Meanwhile The Saudi's Are Saying 'Thank You Very Much' [View article]
    FOOT = 3.3% x TOAD/OIK ....read the links
    Dec 12, 2014. 10:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BUBBLEOMIX Says Oil Will Bottom At $60 Brent And Won't See $90 Until 2018: Meanwhile The Saudi's Are Saying 'Thank You Very Much' [View article]
    You are correct about J.M. Keynes quote - I was predicting this route in 2012, and I have to admit, I didn't see it coming - I knew it was, just when?
    Dec 12, 2014. 10:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Saudi Arabia: Do The Math [View article]
    Correct on what it "costs" the Saudi's - they are already "under-producing" traditionally they do 13% now they are about 10%.

    Incorrect on the idea that they have a "PLAN" to break US shale or anyone...if everyone decides to jointly cut back the 2 million b/d that will be needed to bring prices even to what they say is the "Fair Price" - that's everyone cutting back 2.3%. I'm sure if everyone said...let's do that, the Saudi's would agree.

    By why in Heaven should they cut 20% so everyone else can make more money?

    It's not a "war" - it's just the Saudi's believe that eventually everyone else will cut. So let them.
    Dec 5, 2014. 11:51 AM | 25 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shale Oil War Breaking News: November Permits Down 40% [View article]
    Took SA two days to post it
    Dec 5, 2014. 09:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Shale Oil Is The New Swing-Producer: Output Forecast To 2020 Will Make Saudi Arabia Very Happy [View article]
    I don't know - I'm a long way away. But the idea of a Ponzi is for me if there is no value - in this case there is value. My impression is that the shale oil operators are small guys working on leverage to the hilt - that's not Ponzi, that's life. Good luck to them.
    Dec 3, 2014. 10:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Shale Oil Is The New Swing-Producer: Output Forecast To 2020 Will Make Saudi Arabia Very Happy [View article]
    Nah - I think there is a learning curve here, I really do not expect that Saudi will be bombed any time soon...Iran is of course always a possibility
    Dec 3, 2014. 09:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Shale Oil Is The New Swing-Producer: Output Forecast To 2020 Will Make Saudi Arabia Very Happy [View article]
    A story I heard was that the 2008 oil-spike was caused in part by George Bush Junior going into the market and buying oil at silly prices, because someone told him "The Terrorists Are Coming"

    Shale oil IS America's strategic oil reserve
    Dec 3, 2014. 09:08 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Shale Oil Is The New Swing-Producer: Output Forecast To 2020 Will Make Saudi Arabia Very Happy [View article]
    You clearly thought harder about this than I did - of course the financing is not well-by-well, but you give an aggregate to the bankers and they say..."OK but we want you to hedge X or we won't play".

    Don't see the bond market turning hostile - in fact I'm surprised people tell me these guys are priced at junk - they should let me pitch their story line, I'll get 'em 7% on ten years no sweat.
    Dec 3, 2014. 09:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Shale Oil Is The New Swing-Producer: Output Forecast To 2020 Will Make Saudi Arabia Very Happy [View article]
    You are right - but all I was trying to do was say "it's a good model" - when you start putting up links, explanations, and "proof", you start sounding like a Prima Donna...I figured, let them join the dot's.

    OK you joined the dot's

    Thank you
    Dec 3, 2014. 08:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Shale Oil Is The New Swing-Producer: Output Forecast To 2020 Will Make Saudi Arabia Very Happy [View article]
    You are absolutely right
    Dec 3, 2014. 08:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Shale Oil Is The New Swing-Producer: Output Forecast To 2020 Will Make Saudi Arabia Very Happy [View article]
    Yeah - someone else said that.

    HEY I'm dyslexic, that's a DISABILITY, didn't you know it is politically incorrect to make fun of people with disabilities!!! One of these days I'm going to get myself a disabled parking permit - then who will be laughing!!!

    Thank you
    Dec 3, 2014. 08:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Shale Oil Is The New Swing-Producer: Output Forecast To 2020 Will Make Saudi Arabia Very Happy [View article]
    You are correct, just the big problem they got is dealing with the Canadian Government. What those guys need to do is buy a couple of nuclear reactors - sell the electricity in the winter for heating, and in the summer, use the heat to distill out the oil. The cost of oil sands is the cost of distillation - crazy to do that with fossil fuels.
    Dec 3, 2014. 08:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Shale Oil Is The New Swing-Producer: Output Forecast To 2020 Will Make Saudi Arabia Very Happy [View article]
    Quite so - shale-oil folks eat pizza and they don't care if it's thin and crispy or the other one, BIG OIL guys spend three weeks deciding what they want for lunch, three more weeks deciding what they want to pay for it, and then another three weeks getting someone to sign it off - AFTER doing the HSE risk analysis.

    Don't agree oil price will go down. I'm good on bottoms (pretty lousy on tops), I put out $67 Brent in June 2012 and I'm STILL sticking with it:

    http://bit.ly/12lQCfU

    You make a good point that high oil prices are REALLY BAD for the world economy - this latest bubble has done no-one any favors, except for the U.S. shale oil folks - who have made silly money all on leveraged plays. But it's helped finance a kind of pathological irresponsibility...ISIS is a good example, there are others. You can criticize the Saudi's as much as you like ...actually I spent lot of time there in the 90's - and it's a great place with great people, if perhaps a little "excitable" if they take a dislike to you. I been in jail in Jeddah, Riyadh and Damman...and there is always one onery SOB want's to take you out the back and shoot you - but at heart very generous and hospitable...and at least they behave like grown-ups with the money they got.

    I absolutely don't agree with you that $90 oil let alone $100 is on the cards for at least four years. If you didn't look at it, have a look at the article I wrote in 2010 about, amongst other things, feeding Ritalin to six year old's

    http://bit.ly/1vmyGgr

    I bet you will find it amusing

    Thanks
    Dec 3, 2014. 08:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Shale Oil Is The New Swing-Producer: Output Forecast To 2020 Will Make Saudi Arabia Very Happy [View article]
    OK...OK. But look at your source - Reuters!!! They have a bee-in-their bonnet about Saudi Arabia.

    USA is by far the biggest customer for Saudi Arabia, what they are saying is like saying a farmer sells 60% of his production at "X" to Wall Mart and sells down at the local market at "X x 2" and that's a "conspiracy". Selling at a higher price to the smaller buyers is a way of cutting back production, without saying you are doing it. Don't get the logic of why USA should complain it's getting a preferential price

    Here's another "conspiracy" theory - Saudi is selling oil more expensive to others so that it can support the cause of ISIS who are selling oil at $30!! That way ISIS can get more money to fund their cause!!!
    Dec 3, 2014. 08:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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