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Andrew Butter
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Operates a consulting business in Dubai
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  • Facebook IPO Was A Disaster: Do The Math...Anyone For 309 Million Shares…Going Cheap!!

    Let me get this straight:

    1: Friday 18th May Mark Zukerman rang the Bell

    2: There was a SNAFU for a few hours and nothing happened

    3: Then the underwriters (mainly Morgan Stanley with a little held from Goldilocks and JP Morgan) sold a load of shares in what was left of the morning, at $38 a share or thereabouts.

    4: In the afternoon either they bought a lot back.

    5: At the end of the day they had 309 million shares left out of the 421 million they started with.

    6: Umm...A-B = 112 down out of 421 = 26%

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/facebook/9276699/Facebook-IPO-fight-back-begins-share-price-implausible-says-analyst.html

    http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-why-facebook-never-fell-below-38-per-share-2012-5#comments

    And now Bono is a billionaire?

    Perhaps someone can run that one by me again?

    I'm sorry I'm at little slow today what with the traditional Irish support for the luck of one of their-own that I got inadvertently mixed up in.

    And here's to you Bono, you deserved it!!

    All I can say is you'd better spend it while you can mate, because when Facebook hit's $15 you won't be a billionaire any-more. But for-sure it couldn't have happened to a nicer bloke.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    May 19 4:07 PM | Link | 8 Comments
  • January Jobs Spike Was So Predictable Unless You Are Bloomberg: But Will It Last?
    I noticed an article by Bloomberg where they said that the January jobs spike exceeded even the most optimistic forecast of their panel of forecasters.

    Oh well, that Bloomberg's panel get's it wrong is...predictable.

    There was one forecaster who predicted that from now, for the foreseeable future, on average, USA will add 270,000 new jobs a month, so 240,000 was marginally lower than that "optimistic" forecast.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/312066-bubbleomix-predicts-u-s-employment-will-climb-by-5-million-over-next-18-months

    Putting aside the grumbles about the quality of jobs, and the fact that BLS may revise those numbers up and down for the next couple of years, just because as they make clear, it's hard to measure things that are moving, more jobs are better news than less jobs.

    And as a country slowly digs it's way out of the hole that crazy lending created, unless the world is going to end, there has to be a reversion to the mean line defined as nominal GDP divided by wage inflation.

    Nominal GDP is going up slowly (what part of that is inflation is irrelevant), and wage inflation is muted, that means more jobs.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Feb 05 9:22 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Don't Worry Bottom's In For S&P 500 And US Treasuries Are Headed Up
    I got chastized by SA editors for not writing "actionable stuff".

    But they don't publish my "actionable" stuff:

    Like "Oil is going down": 30th April - then Brent was $127 - now it's $105...that was an actionable call wasn'e it?

    Then on 4th August I wrote, "Bottom on the S&P 500 = 1150".

    OK right now it's 1,140 , but that's intra-day, I work closing.

    Actually I wrote that in June, but they didn't piblish that either, what I'm wondering is what sort of "action " SA editors need.

    Like....err the wrong answer  - two years ago they didn't publish an article I wrote trashong tyhe hypeinflation idea, instead they published hundreds of posts on that idea.

    Err..so where is it then.

    I got it - what SA editors are looking for is the wrong answer.

    Don't worry - be cool, time to buy US Stocks - blood on the streets.



    Aug 08 2:28 PM | Link | 5 Comments
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  • Facebook underwriters still own $11.72 billion of shares so they only sold 25% net after buybacks to support $38...$15 here we come?
    May 19, 2012
  • Oil tanker "attacked" (??) in Straights of Hormuz ... minimal damage (but then it's hard to sink a tanker)....spike in oil coming?
    Jul 28, 2010
  • Can't seem to post on my Instablog, just published "US House Price Forecast 2010-2015" on http://bit.ly/dchHAX
    Jul 23, 2010
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