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Andrew Colburn  

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  • Amarin: The Peaks And Valleys Of Vascepa Sales Growth [View article]
    Despite their best efforts, Amarin's cash balance will require them to raise cash before R-IT interim analysis. Here is a graph I made using their reported cash balances: http://bit.ly/1LEssOK
    The R^2= 0.9997 which is about as close to a perfect linear line as you will see. Forecasted forward I show about the same 55M balance end of 2015. However, Reduce-It interim results are not expected until Q2'16+, which means the low cash balance will put the company at risk if results are sour (which I highly doubt). That means Amarin will HAVE to raise before R-IT interim due to fiduciary duty. The only way this does not happen is if sales drastically pick up. They need to reevaluate their marketing strategy and use their right of free speech for the Anchor indication (of which the FDA has guidance already: http://1.usa.gov/1LEssON )
    Feb 24, 2015. 09:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What MannKind Investors Can Learn From The Sanofi Conference Call [View article]
    @360/share, Afrezza would have to be doing >140B in sales/yr or ~4x the TOTAL global insulin sales est of 2016. Good luck trying to reach that. Lol. Also, simple math would say Sanofi shares would be better (for more than the obvious reasons) as they get 65% of the net profit from Afrezza.
    Feb 6, 2015. 01:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ARNA Management And Investors Underestimating The Potential Of Belviq And Phentermine Combination [View article]
    @Jim, the vast majority of patients are paying more than $25-45. To be honest, I have no clue where you pulled this number from since there is a very wide angle of insurance plans. A bunch of insurance co's don't have this on Tier 2 so the co-pays are large. Even their coupon is $50 co-pay up to a max of $75 off (implying some are paying well over $125 co-pays).
    Nov 13, 2014. 11:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ARNA Management And Investors Underestimating The Potential Of Belviq And Phentermine Combination [View article]
    The trial would be cost prohibitive and unnecessary. Leaving the pills independent provides greater adjustment on a patient by patient basis. Investors, myself (previously) included, put too much expectations into the "obesity race." The fact is, most docs are still scared of weight loss pills after the whole Phen-fen ordeal. The few docs I know around my area even mentioned their apprehension to prescribe anything of the sort, except as an absolute last resort. Add to that the giant co-pays for these drugs and you have something that won't achieve blockbuster status. I realized this, and I hope others like the new OREX investors see this too. ARNA needs to focus on the rest of their GPCR pipeline and avoid sinking more into Belviq.
    Nov 13, 2014. 04:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retrophin: Additional Red Flags Signal Extreme Caution For Investors [View article]
    I will say BRB, I think you slid over the whole FAST Generics Act a little too fast given its significant risk to the RTRX business model. All of their meaningful income is derived through hiking prices on old drugs, then blocking generic access via closed distribution system. Any meaningful hit on revenue puts them at risk of defaulting on their loans given the remaining status of their pipeline. According to FDA, ANDA applications are to take about 15 months to process starting October 1st, 2014. Since RTRX has removed their "planned" CTX trial and any exclusivity for Thiola would require an additional trial, they are running out of time to combat any potential entry (all assuming the Act passes as it is currently written of course).

    FDA Law Blog on FAST Generics Act: http://bit.ly/1rmfJcy
    Sep 28, 2014. 12:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retrophin: Additional Red Flags Signal Extreme Caution For Investors [View article]
    Normally yes, but as I pointed out while he was doing it, Martin uses these purchases to pump his stock. He bought stock in quick succession from Feb. 6th to April 4th and then dumped all of his purchases at a loss. Coincidentally his purchases nearly matched the number of shares his hedge fund (MSMB Capital) liquidated in the same period. Also, unsurprisingly, he dumped those shares on the heels of the Thiola licensing, but only after telling shareholder that it created $10/share in value (that is on top of the 10/share RTRX said Chenodal created at 10.68 = 20.68 + Thiola 10 = 30.68/share). He sold at 15.14 or less than 1/2 the value he has touted to shareholders.
    Sep 26, 2014. 01:29 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: MannKind Q2 Earnings - Stock Sent To The Woodshed [View article]
    Paul, +Discount for time. These are peak est. sales in 2020 (5.4 years out)
    Aug 14, 2014. 11:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: MannKind Q2 Earnings - Stock Sent To The Woodshed [View article]
    that is applying a 5X multiple...

    ~4B*0.388*0.35*5=2.7 (so they'd actually need 4.XB in sales, but I rounded down for simplicity)
    Aug 13, 2014. 09:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: MannKind Q2 Earnings - Stock Sent To The Woodshed [View article]
    If I used Sanofi % Net Profit(-R&D & -Taxes) of 38.8% Mannkind would need to do ~4B in sales to justify current market cap.
    Aug 13, 2014. 03:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: MannKind Q2 Earnings - Stock Sent To The Woodshed [View article]
    **Sigh** I know that.
    As I said above, Novo Nordisk is the global leader in insulin sales. Achieving their level of Net Profit Margin on Afrezza would be a best case scenario, 50.1%(which includes a subtraction of taxes and R&D spending).
    Aug 13, 2014. 03:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: MannKind Q2 Earnings - Stock Sent To The Woodshed [View article]
    You are correct in that I was wrong about the 175M down, it was 150M down, my mistake, I had the two backwards in the my mind (which actually would've benefited Mannkind :P). The cost of the post marketing studies is not entirely covered by Sanofi. They are split (presumably 65/35) like everything else.
    Additionally, the 775M in milestones represents worldwide milestones and sales thresholds. I'm not sure where you get 1yr to 18Months for the majority of these payments. If management said this, if you could provide a link I'd appreciate it.
    Aug 13, 2014. 11:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: MannKind Q2 Earnings - Stock Sent To The Woodshed [View article]
    Not sure I get what you're trying to say...
    All of what I think you are saying will go toward Net Profit margins (aside from milestones of course), of which Mannkind will get 35%. As I said the pie in the sky, ideal net profit margins are those of Novo Nordisk(NYSE:NVO) which stand at 50.1% (-taxes and -R&D [which for MNKD and SNY will be post marketing studies])
    Aug 13, 2014. 11:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: MannKind Q2 Earnings - Stock Sent To The Woodshed [View article]
    $NOV's net profit margin is 50.1% (-R&D and -taxes). Mannkind will get 35% of this very high, ideal 50.1% net profit margin (again -taxes and -post marketing studies) **I don't have a good idea yet of how much these studies will cost, so I have omitted them**

    Also, according to the PR they will share all expenses so MNKD will be paying (presumably) 35% of the costs of the post marketing studies. Until enough revenue comes in to pay for such, that will be a cost for MNKD. I'll have to call IR for better clarification on how this will be done.
    Aug 13, 2014. 11:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: MannKind Q2 Earnings - Stock Sent To The Woodshed [View article]
    The massive drop is not due to the earnings report. It is due to the poor partnership details. After approval and over 2B spent getting approval, Mannkind settles for 175M down and 35% NET PROFIT. All costs will be shared, not entirely covered by Sanofi. This means the expensive post marketing studies required will put a decent dent in MNKD's already cash strapped wallet. Additionally, if we assume outstanding Net Profit margins of NVO (insulin leader), Mannkind will be getting 35% of 50.1% Net Profit (not including tax and post marketing trial expenses). This means MNKD's current market cap needs to be justified by ~3B in sales. With industry analysts expecting peak sales in 2020 to be 1.5B, this means the stock **COULD** fall another 50% to align with Wall St. expectations.
    Aug 13, 2014. 10:33 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Contango And Backwardation Strategy For VIX ETFs [View article]
    UVXY is a better vehicle to do this with as it trades 3x VXX. The main problem however is finding shares to short (both VXX and UVXY). I've modeled a few 'if then"-"else do" statements that would've net significant profit trading UVXY, but I never find the shares to short. If I do find them, when I cover my short position I can't find them again. It creates large gaps in this cycle of trading. Great on paper, hard to do in reality.
    Jul 28, 2014. 11:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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