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Andrew Crowder
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Over the last few years I have worked diligently towards refining several of my favorite and most successful stock options strategies. My hard work and diligence have proven to be a success and now I want to share my ideas and strategies with a limited group of like-minded investors. My options... More
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  • Short-Term High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Indicator. QQQQ – Short-Term Fade?

    First of all I would like to apologize for the short reprieve. I have been ill for several weeks now, but things got worse last week as I fell ill with the flu. After being reminded just how awful the flu can make you feel I think I might consider actually getting a shot next year.

    Also, as an Oregon Duck alum and long time fan, I was certainly not enthused by the result of the game last night. It is great to see just how far the program has come over the years. Just like my High-Probability, Mean-Reversion strategy, patience and persistence pays. We will be back. Go PAC-10 and Go Ducks!!!

    Okay, now with QQQQ pushing into “very overbought” territory with the eighth day of trading in January behind us could the following occur: going back over the last seven years if you purchased QQQQ on the 8th trading day of January and held until the end of the month, you would have had returns of -2.3%, -3.1%, -2.3%, -2.7%, -4.1% ,-1.6% and -7.7%.  The median maximum gain during those trades was +0.7% compared to a median draw down of -5.3%.

    As most of you know I have been stating this for several weeks now and as a result, I could potentially take a position in the Q’s early tomorrow if the price action is right at the open. The middle of January is historically weak, particularly for the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ). So far my indicators have not led me astray and I have a feeling they will not this time around. Of course, as we all know, Mr. Probability can tease us on occasion, but as traders all we have is probabilities and with everything lining up for a short-term reprieve I think I like my chances at the moment. Subscribers, stay tuned for a possible alert tomorrow.

    If you haven’t already, don’t forget to sign-up for my Free 30-day trial. Also, for those of you who live on Facebook. You can access my daily info there as well. Just click on LIKE

    Short-Term High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Indicator – as of close 1/11/10

    Benchmark ETFs

    * S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) – 70.2 (overbought)
    * Dow Jones (NYSEARCA:DIA) –58.9 (neutral)
    * Russell 2000 (NYSEARCA:IWM) – 59.3 (neutral)
    * NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ) – 85.1 (very overbought)

    Sector ETFs

    *Biotech (NASDAQ:IBB) – 70.5 (overbought)
    *
    Consumer Discretionary (NYSEARCA:XLY) – 48.8 (neutral)
    * Health Care (NYSEARCA:XLV) – 76.0 (overbought)
    *
    Financial (NYSEARCA:XLF) – 56.7 (neutral)
    * Energy (NYSEARCA:XLE) – 71.0 (overbought)
    *
    Gold Miners (NYSEARCA:GDX) – 44.5 (neutral)
    * Industrial (NYSEARCA:XLI) – 84.2 (overbought) / RSI (2) – 95.3
    *
    Materials (NYSEARCA:XLB) – 70.8 (overbought)
    *
    Real Estate (NYSEARCA:IYR) – 42.5 (neutral)
    * Retail (NYSEARCA:RTH) – 38.4 (neutral)
    * Semiconductor (NYSEARCA:SMH) – 81.4 (very overbought)
    *
    United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USO) – 63.3 (neutral)
    * Utilities (NYSEARCA:XLU) – 50.4 (neutral)

    International ETFs

    * Brazil (NYSEARCA:EWZ) – 55.6 (neutral)
    * China 25 (NYSEARCA:FXI) – 57.1 (neutral)
    * EAFE (NYSEARCA:EFA) – 45.9 (neutral)
    * South Korea (NYSEARCA:EWY) – 60.6 (neutral)

    Commodity ETFs

    * Gold (NYSEARCA:GLD) – 49.0 (neutral)

    Ultra Extremes

    * Small Cap Bear 3x (NYSEARCA:TZA) – 38.7 (neutral)
    * Small-Cap Bull 3x (NYSEARCA:TNA) – 59.8 (neutral)
    *UltraLong QQQQ (NYSEARCA:QLD) – 86.1 (very overbought) / RSI (2) – 95.0
    * Ultra Long S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SSO) – 70.3 (overbought)
    * Ultra Short S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SDS) – 28.1 (oversold)
    *
    UltraShort 20+ Treasury (NYSEARCA:TBT) – 53.5 (neutral)

    I work hard to bring you my latest views, opinions and research on a daily basis. If you are a loyal reader and find my thoughts useful please show your support by joining my newsletter service. For the first time, I am offering a 30-Day Free Trial.

    Watch and learn firsthand how I implement my options strategies.

    Kindest,

    Andy




    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a short position in QQQQ over the next 72 hours.
    Tags: DIA, EEM, EFA, EWY, EWZ, FXI, GDX, GLD, IBB, IWM, IYR, OIH, QLD, QQQ, RTH, SDS, SMH, SPY, SSO, TBT, TNA, TZA, USO, VXX, XLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLU, XLV, XLY
    Jan 11 6:54 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Short-Term High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Indicator. Potential Trade Around the Corner?

    What a difference a day makes! Historically, the first few days of December are bullish and today certainly lived up to its historical billing. Of course, a slew of positive economic news didn’t hurt.

    The ADP jobs number, Q3 productivity, November auto sales and the Fed Beige Book were all favorable and as a result the major market benchmarks tacked on 2%. There is no doubt that on a fundamental basis, at least for the short-term, it was a good day.

    However, on a short-term technical basis there are a few bearish signals that could be lining up. First, we have the large gap up today in almost every ETF I follow. Typically gaps after major economic reports, particularly when they push the major market ETFs into near overbought or overbought conditions, lead to gap fills shortly after.

    As for overbought readings in the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Strategy, well, there are several, but none of them have reached an extreme state as of yet. The Materials sector (NYSEARCA:XLB) is actually the most overbought and there are quite a few more that are close behind. Certainly another day of gains would push a few of the ETFs I follow into an extreme state which could lead to a signal in the strategy intraday tomorrow. I would certainly be content with such a move. So, if you are one of my loyal subscribers be on the lookout for a tweet or email for a possible trade alert.

    If you haven’t already, don’t forget to sign-up for my Free 30-day trial. Also, for those of you who live on Facebook. You can access my info there as well. Just click on LIKE.

    Short-Term High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Indicator – as of close 12/01/10

    Benchmark ETFs

    * S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) – 63.8 (neutral)
    * Dow Jones (NYSEARCA:DIA) –64.8 (neutral)
    * Russell 2000 (NYSEARCA:IWM) – 69.6 (neutral)
    * NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ) – 60.8 (neutral)

    Sector ETFs

    * Biotech (NASDAQ:IBB) – 53.8 (neutral)
    * Consumer Discretionary (NYSEARCA:XLY) – 70.1 (overbought)
    * Health Care (NYSEARCA:XLV) – 56.4 (neutral)
    * Financial (NYSEARCA:XLF) – 57.8 (neutral)
    * Energy (NYSEARCA:XLE) – 71.2 (overbought)
    * Gold Miners (NYSEARCA:GDX) – 65.6 (neutral)
    * Industrial (NYSEARCA:XLI) – 72.7 (overbought)
    * Materials (XLB) – 70.2 (overbought)
    * Real Estate (NYSEARCA:IYR) – 58.9 (neutral)
    * Retail (NYSEARCA:RTH) – 60.7 (neutral)
    * Semiconductor (NYSEARCA:SMH) – 70.2 (overbought)
    * United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USO) – 67.6 (neutral)
    * Utilities (NYSEARCA:XLU) – 56.5 (neutral)

    International ETFs

    * Brazil (NYSEARCA:EWZ) – 57.8 (neutral)
    * China 25 (NYSEARCA:FXI) – 54.5 (neutral)
    * EAFE (NYSEARCA:EFA) – 49.5 (neutral)
    * South Korea (NYSEARCA:EWY) – 58.7 (neutral)

    Commodity ETFs

    * Gold (NYSEARCA:GLD) – 67.9 (neutral)

    Ultra Extremes

    * Small Cap Bear 3x (NYSEARCA:TZA) – 29.3 (oversold)
    * Small-Cap Bull 3x (NYSEARCA:TNA) – 69.7 (neutral)
    * UltraLong QQQQ (NYSEARCA:QLD) – 60.4 (neutral)
    * Ultra Long S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SSO) – 63.1 (neutral)
    * Ultra Short S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SDS) – 35.1 (neutral)
    * UltraShort 20+ Treasury (NYSEARCA:TBT) – 56.1 (neutral)

    I work hard to bring you my latest views, opinions and research on a daily basis. If you are a loyal reader and find my thoughts useful please show your support by joining my newsletter service. For the first time, I am offering a 30-Day Free Trial.

    Watch and learn firsthand how I implement my options strategies.

    Kindest,

    Andy




    Disclosure: Short SPY
    Tags: DIA, EEM, EFA, EWY, EWZ, FXI, GDX, GLD, IBB, IWM, IYR, OIH, QLD, QQQ, RTH, SDS, SMH, SPY, SSO, TBT, TNA, TZA, USO, VXX, XLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLU, XLV, XLY
    Dec 01 5:51 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Short-Term High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Indicator. A Few Oversold ETFs, But No Extremes.
    More uncertainty entered the market today. North and South Korea conflict, more allegations of insider trading and continued concerns plagued the market today and one has to wonder if this market can gain any ground as we move closer and closer to the 2011. Fortunately, I do not concern myself with these types of issues in my trading. The so-called noise does not concern me as much as when the ETFs I follow hit a short-term oversold/overbought extreme.

    The High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Indicator was once again successful in pointing out the short-term direction in overbought Retail sector (NYSEARCA:RTH) as well as the Semiconductors (NYSEARCA:SMH). After today's market-wide drubbing, several of the ETFs that I follow have moved into a short-term oversold state, but none of them have yet to display an extreme reading.

    The next two trading days are seasonally bullish. Yes, the day before and after Turkey Day are quite bullish, but the two days after that are overwhelmingly bearish.

    It is my hope that the market is able to defy the historically seasonal bullishness and move lower tomorrow to push a few of the ETFs I follow into a short-term oversold extreme. If this plays out and I see a few of the ETFs move into an oversold extreme I will be sending out a trade alert to all of my loyal subscribers.

    I just wanted to thank all of you for the continued kind words. It seems as though the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion strategy has been a success so far and many of you have been able to take advantage of the indicators that I publish daily. I hope

    If you haven’t already, don’t forget to sign-up for my Free 30-day trial. Also, for those of you who live on Facebook. You can access my info there as well. Just click on LIKE.

    Short-Term High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Indicator – as of close 11/22/10

    Benchmark ETFs

    * S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) – 32.3 (neutral)
    * Dow Jones (NYSEARCA:DIA) –28.9 (oversold)
    * Russell 2000 (NYSEARCA:IWM) – 49.1 (neutral)
    * NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ) – 40.5 (neutral)

    Sector ETFs

    * Biotech (NASDAQ:IBB) – 46.4 (neutral)
    * Consumer Discretionary (NYSEARCA:XLY) – 43.2 (neutral)
    * Health Care (NYSEARCA:XLV) – 30.2 (neutral)
    * Financial (NYSEARCA:XLF) – 24.1 (oversold)
    * Energy (NYSEARCA:XLE) – 42.6 (neutral)
    * Gold Miners (NYSEARCA:GDX) – 53.9 (neutral)
    * Industrial (NYSEARCA:XLI) – 37.4 (neutral)
    * Materials (NYSEARCA:XLB) – 38.2 (neutral)
    * Real Estate (NYSEARCA:IYR) – 35.8 (neutral)
    * Retail (RTH) – 51.8 (neutral)
    * Semiconductor (SMH) – 65.9 (neutral)
    * United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USO) – 31.1 (neutral)
    * Utilities (NYSEARCA:XLU) – 25.7 (oversold)

    International ETFs

    * Brazil (NYSEARCA:EWZ) – 25.8 (oversold)
    * China 25 (NYSEARCA:FXI) – 22.8 (oversold)
    * EAFE (NYSEARCA:EFA) – 25.3 (oversold)
    * South Korea (NYSEARCA:EWY) – 27.6 (oversold)


    Commodity ETFs

    * Gold (NYSEARCA:GLD) – 62.3 (neutral)

    Ultra Extremes

    * Small Cap Bear 3x (NYSEARCA:TZA) – 48.9 (neutral)
    * Small-Cap Bull 3x (NYSEARCA:TNA) – 48.3 (neutral)
    * UltraLong QQQQ (NYSEARCA:QLD) – 40.6 (neutral)
    * Ultra Long S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SSO) – 32.0 (neutral)
    * Ultra Short S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SDS) – 66.9 (neutral)
    * UltraShort 20+ Treasury (NYSEARCA:TBT) – 35.6 (neutral)

    I work hard to bring you my latest views, opinions and research on a daily basis. If you are a loyal reader and find my thoughts useful please show your support by joining my newsletter service. For the first time, I am offering a 30-Day Free Trial.

    Watch and learn firsthand how I implement my options strategies.

    Kindest,

    Andy



    Disclosure: Short SPY.
    Tags: DIA, EEM, EFA, EWY, EWZ, FXI, GDX, GLD, IBB, IWM, IYR, OIH, QLD, QQQ, RTH, SDS, SMH, SPY, SSO, TBT, TNA, TZA, USO, VXX, XLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLU, XLV, XLY
    Nov 23 7:26 PM | Link | Comment!
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