Andrew Hart's  Instablog

That's right folks, the recent selling pressure has the market average closest to the 200 day MA (exponential) since July.  As it stands now we are about 2% above the key trendline, which rests at $104.79 on the SPY.  At first glance it looks longer-term bearish, however, that's not the case if the market holds above this level of support.  Odds are that this will be a solid level for value seekers to enter the market.  

The argument is two-fold, it's trend based and volatility based.  Take a look at both charts below–the S&P500 and CBOE Volatility Index both show that the market has 2-3 percent MORE to lose before finding a short-term bottom.  Of course, if we break below the 200 day for two or three days I'll update the post as it would alter the outlook in a meaningful way.

Click on the images to expand 

S&P500 Daily (200 EMA)

CBOE Volatility Index

Want to know what I think are the four cornerstones of sound options investing? They aren't complicated, yet they seem to be elusive too much of the time. They are...

1. Invest in options that respond well to the underlying stock's movement (high delta)
2. Minimize time decay (the natural erosion of an option's value over time)
3. Buy enough time to capitalize on major moves (you don't have to hold it the whole time)
4. Minimize volatility (since volatility can shake up your confidence and your account balance)

Don't worry - you won't need a PhD in mathematics, nor will you need to be a seasoned options trading veteran, to apply these four principles. All you need is a little willingness.

For details on the 4 Cornerstones, click Read More

1) Invest in options that move well with the underlying stock.

If you've ever heard the term 'delta' as it pertains to options trading, this is what they're talking about. Delta is the degree to which each individual option changes with respect to every $1 change in the underlying stock's price.

For instance, a call option with a delta of 0.30 (30 cents) would increase in value by 30 cents for every dollar's worth of gain for the stock. That would be a relatively low delta. A relatively high-delta call option might move by 90 cents (a delta of 0.90) when the underlying stock gained a buck.

Obviously high-delta options are more desirable if you're making a directional forecast for a stock.

(Note that the delta can change as an option moves deeper in the money or deeper out of the money, and as time passes. For our purposes though, you just need to understand the concept.)

2) Minimize your time decay right off the bat.

Have you ever noticed you pay a little more for options than they're mathematically worth? For instance, a call option with a strike price of $30 on a stock that's trading at $35 is intrinsically worth $5. However, you may have to pay $7 to own the call option.

That additional $2 is considered to be 'time premium'. As time passes - even if the underlying stock's price doesn't change by a penny - an option's time premium will sink. As expiration approaches, the time premium will eventually be whittled away to zero...meaning the option will eventually only have intrinsic value (or what the option is mathematically worth).

Option traders call this time decay 'theta'. Needless to say, keeping theta to a minimum is critical to your long-term profitability.

3) Give yourself enough time to take advantage of a big, drawn-out move.

A quick rhetorical question - Realistically, can a stock move farther in a month, or in six months? Certainly there are overnight-sensation stocks, but those one-day surges are few and far between. By and large, the more time you give a stock to move, the further it can travel up or down a chart.

That's probably not news to anyone, but it's a point we want to make since it's easy to forget...particularly for options traders.

Our longer-term services like SMARToptions and ETF Options Trader are looking for major, macro moves from our universe of optionable stocks and ETFs. That's where the real power is - a company works its way into a profitable situation, and stays there for quite a while....perhaps month or years. (Or, we can buy bearish put options on companies that can't find their bearings and are seeing their stock sink.)

With this in mind, we've found owning options with plenty of time gives us an opportunity for enormous gains. Here's the best part of all though - we don't necessarily have to use that time. If we do get a nice short-term burst and decide to take profits well before the option expires, we always have that choice. You don't have that flexibility if your option expired before a major move.

4) You don't get paid any extra for surviving volatility.

It's a generally accepted idea in the trading world that higher returns are probably going to be accompanied by greater volatility. We don't disagree with the notion - to a point. In our observation though, there does come a time where you do stop getting paid for extra risk and extra volatility you're assuming.

Though we're striving to maximize gains in our more conservative options services, we also seek to minimize swings in a portfolio's value. Part of that effort has to do with remaining psychologically comfortable; another part of it has to do with sheer capital preservation - not losing is more important than a string of monster-sized winning trades. You can always look to the future if you have enough capital. If you wipe all or most of it out though, then you're out of the game.

Final Thoughts

Nothing earth-shattering, but the more I do this, the more attracted I become to simple ideas and strategies.