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Andrew Heyl

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  • Why A Precise Fair Value Estimate Of ConocoPhillips Will Always Be Conceptually Wrong [View article]
    All your calculations are really for naught, when you ignore the spin-off of Phillips66, which was a major restructuring. It is no accident that after the spin-off the capital expenditures doubled. Where do you think they got the cash, why did they substantially increase the CapX, and what will be the future CapX. Those are the questions that need to be answered? You will notice that assets, liability and assets went down substantially after the spin-off, but you're using number's back to 2010, which are completely irrelevant to the newly restructured company. Sometimes looking strictly at number gives a distorted view. You first need to know what's going on in the company.
    Mar 4 03:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-Mart's Problem And The Market Today [View article]
    You reap what you sow. Do you think they will ever learn that low paid workers can't buy the junk in their stores.
    Feb 20 06:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: Will The Stock Take Off Now? [View article]
    Bankers with economic/investment backgrounds are who got us in to this mess.
    Feb 20 06:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliffs Natural Resources Has Immediate Upside Potential [View article]
    Why not buy the convertible preferred shares and collect a 9% dividend while you wait to see what happens?
    Feb 13 05:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Market Liked The Buckle's January Sales Numbers [View article]
    The difference between BKE and the other apparel retailers is that BKE is debt free and better able to weather a downturn for a year or two. Even in the worst years, like 2013, they have positive earnings although their growth has slowed, and comp's are down. They also can grow by continuing their conservative expansion program of opening a few new stores a year.
    Feb 10 08:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Casablanca Wants To Split Cliffs Natural Resources, The Bloom Lake Project And The Future Of Iron Ore [View article]
    The analysts have been dead wrong all year on the price of ore. I'm always skeptical of analysts from firms who may be trading in the companies analyzed. I feel more comfortable with the predictions of the ore companies. Nobody knows what China is doing, its a complete guessing game. Also if production is going up why is Joy Global down. CLF recapitalized last year with convertible preferred stock and will be fine. All it has to do is stay profitable profitable until another shortage of iron ore occurs, and don't forget its long term contracts with US steel producers.
    Feb 8 07:52 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Decoupling Of Oil Companies And Oil Prices Redux [View article]
    Thanks for catching the error. I made the correction.
    Feb 8 07:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Two Birds With One Stone: Baxter Will Make Your Pockets Heavier And Heal The World In 2014 [View article]
    BAX's main source of growth over the last few years has been acquisitions. Do you have any figures on its organic growth?
    Jan 31 04:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron Dividend Stock Analysis [View article]
    Looks like you've done a lot of work in your intrinsic value analysis. It would be nice however, if you gave a little more detail on your methods, or maybe just show the formulas your using. I do a lot of similar models, such as Graham's formula for growth stocks, Value = Current Earnings X (8.5 plus twice the expected annual growth rate), and my calculation was somewhat different from yours. Same with your DCF calculations. In the end we were pretty close on the final fair value figure. I suppose it might have a lot to do with how you're computing earnings and cash flow. I also notice that you indicated analysts were estimating a 6.5 future growth rate, and that's exactly the growth prediction on Fast Graphs. I just recently recently started exploring Fast Graphs, and was wondering if you use it for some of your work. If so what do you think of it.
    Jan 26 07:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ideas For 2014: Long GCVRZ [View article]
    Here's a link to a article about Lemtrada that might be of interest to you. It indicates that it is really just a repackaging of Campath.
    Jan 16 12:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Bother Diversifying, Just Buy Berkshire Hathaway [View article]
    So the question is do you want Warren Buffet, or do you want to guess what index fund out of dozens are going to out perform him.
    Jan 15 06:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T: More Growth Drivers Ahead? [View article]
    I'ts not the growth, but the capital expenses, that is keeping the profits down, and the price.
    Jan 11 07:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Peter Schiff Wrong About Wal-Mart? [View article]
    How about ending this with a quote from Adam Smith.

    What improves the circumstances of the greater part can never be regarded as an inconveniency to the whole. No society can surely be flourishing and happy, of which the far greater part of the members are poor and miserable.

    The Wealth Of Nations, Book I Chapter VIII, p.96, para. 36.
    Jan 5 07:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Peter Schiff Wrong About Wal-Mart? [View article]
    If they can find a better job let them go. I'm sure they can be replaced. But since minimum wages affects all employees, all companies will be in the same boat. I know it will be tough for the executives to take a little cut in their wages, but in the long run the big box stores will benefit, in that the increase in wages will come right back to them, since this is where minimum wage workers shop. Believe me, executive bonuses don't get spent at Wal-Mart. It's the trickle up theory.
    Jan 5 06:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Peter Schiff Wrong About Wal-Mart? [View article]
    Why don't they just cut the bonuses of management by 15%?
    Jan 4 06:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment