Andrew Ling

The Tellurium Supernova Has Erupted

Obviously Jack's March article is his new stance on Te over the old stance from Feb. As I recall back in December you went from short FSLR to long FSLR and now you're leaning short again. Does this cost you your credibility as well? People are allowed to chance their position with new information.

The Tellurium Supernova Has Erupted

Mark, it's irrelevant what Jack's opinions are he's drawing attention to simple important facts. Jack point is not about current tellurium production. It's based on potential output from copper production. It doesn't matter where the Te is produced. He illustrated that the estimates are based on 1/6 of the copper.

msd, his cdte data is also wrong. At 3 micros fslr uses 6.5g/panel. This is calculated by using the density of te. Since we're talking about future supply not current, let's assume FSLR is using 6g/80 watt panel by the end of the year. The gains will mostly be from efficiency gains but thinning the te layer may also be possible. That would be 12 MW production/ton te. With 800 tons te potentially available that would equate to 9.6 GW or $19.2 billion in sales/$6.4 billion in earnings. Even with a growth rate moderated by the growth in te production, these earnings would justify a $200B market cap.

The Tellurium Supernova Has Erupted

According to this article your world production numbers are completely wrong since they are based on the production of only Canada Japan and Peru, which account for 1/6 of total world copper production. Total world production is likely 700-800 tons/year.

www.resourceinvestor.c...

Also, production is increase. Just yesterday new tellurium was discovered

" Mexivada discovers porphyry molybdenum, silver-tellurium, and gold systems at Moly Dome, Nevada; begins tellurium exploration program "

The Tellurium Supernova Has Erupted

ITs really very simple. The only reason to give more information than required is to pump the stock. Any additional information can be used against you. Take Nanosolar's case. If they keep blabbing about how great their CIGS tech is, maybe a large player will get into their industry, such as sharp or fslr. When you strike gold you keep you mouth shut.

The Tellurium Supernova Has Erupted

Judging by how slowly the revenue is climbing it's obvious that you are overestimating VNP's te production at 25 tons a quarter. With Te prices rising according to your chart and the quoted $300/kg price Te would account for about 80% of VNPs revenues. If that were the case you'd see a much greater spike in revenues and profit margins.

The Tellurium Supernova Has Erupted

Well which one is it? .25 grams per watt is actually 15 grams per panel not 8. Remember the old article about Tellurium shortage by Scott Roberts seemingly the only other person in the world concered about te shortage?

seekingalpha.com/artic...

For some reason I tend to trust his annual production estimates of 400 tons/year over yours. He also has te costs at 1 cent per watt or 1% of overall costs.

BTW FSLR also does not allow any non authorized personel in their plants including media. Does that mean they're murdering people in there? In case you didnt notice FSLR management is the complete opposite of Nanosolar. More average people have probably heard of Nanosolar than FSLR. They don't hype constantly they just deliver. A good strategy considering before you know it they'll have silently dominated the market.

The Tellurium Supernova Has Erupted

Yup he's not even smart enough to realize he can't cause panic selling in a $25B stock. The more I look into it the more his 8 grams tellurium/panel number looks made up. I seriously doubt he's the only person outside of the company that knows how much Te is consumed.

The Tellurium Supernova Has Erupted

Mark's entire argument hinges on the fact that FSLR consumes 8 grams Te per panel. I have no clue where he obtained this fact from since I have read every word from every official FSLR release and never heard any mention of the amount of Te consumed per panel, per plant, per quarter, or otherwise. I wouldn't be surprised if he just pulled the number out of thin air.

The Tellurium Supernova Has Erupted

Mark, where did you get the info stating that FSLR consumes 8 grams tellurium per panel? I was unable to come up with that info anywhere. FSLR's tellurium consumption isn't stated in any of their filings.

The Tellurium Supernova Has Erupted

FSLR didn't respond to you? What a shock. Maybe you should go straight to George W. for a response then? Most companies aren't in the habit of responding to loons unless they have a team of dedicated customer service professionals located in India to do so.

The Tellurium Supernova Has Erupted

Good response Jack. I've read similar responses from about 10 different people "Marc Anthony" just ignores them all and continues to blab. As you said FSLR has stated that Te supplies are not a constraint issue and that there are adequate supplies available for terrawatts of production. Marc Anthony responds by calling them liars. I think I'll trust FSLR management over some guy that shorted FSLR at $80 and covered at $250.

The Tellurium Supernova Has Erupted

The other problem is there is virtually no info available on 5N Plus. I dont even know how many shares are outstanding.

The Tellurium Supernova Has Erupted

About time you came up with a better idea than shorting FSLR Mark, lol. I've been following 5N Plus since it's IPO and would probably buy some if not for the fact that I'm not allowed to buy stocks on the CAnadian exchange on margin. 5n Plus would have to appreciate twice as much as FSLR for me to make the same amount as I'm still fully margined on FSLR.