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Andrew Noland  

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  • Follow Buffett's Lead And Divest From Exxon Mobil [View article]
    "He greatly likes companies where he has substantial influence [ good for the ego ]"

    This is wrong. He generally does not try to influence companies he buys, but he leaves management in place.
    Mar 6, 2015. 03:29 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: Attractive Entry Point Despite Weak Earnings And Guidance [View article]
    "Only issue is: if debt is taken out, shouldn't you use an unleveraged FCF figure (i.e. interest payments added back to FCF) since you are assuming full repayment of debt?"

    Booya, this is correct. If you subtract net debt to get to Intrinsic Value, you should add back interest payments to Free Cash Flow before taking the present value of FCF for firm value. Otherwise you are getting hit for debt twice.

    "Thanks to the author for a good article, which shows what I believe is one of the strongest reason to consider being long IBM here: even if the future is miserable for IBM (0% growth for ever, 10x FCF exit multiple with all debt taken out), IBM delivers a return! If the future is anything better than mediocre, IBM will deliver a strong return. The odds are strongly in favour of longs here - unless of course you are betting IBM is toast. "

    Be careful, that's what I said about BlackBerry and I got burned. I have some IBM now, but I've found that investments based on low multiples only, without thinking about the business itself, can hurt you. A miserable future would actually involve negative FCF growth. So we need the company to do better than miserably.
    Jan 22, 2015. 10:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile - $44 Price Target = 300% Upside From Here [View article]
    Looks like you should have paid attention to the share dilution.
    Jan 21, 2015. 05:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: Attractive Entry Point Despite Weak Earnings And Guidance [View article]
    It looks like you are subtracting net debt from your PV of free cash flows to get Intrinsic Value. If this is the case you should not do this as free cash flows already include interest payments on the net debt, so you are effectively subtracting debt twice.
    Jan 21, 2015. 05:07 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Long Case For Consolidated-Tomoka: 45-55% Upside [View article]
    It seems the basis of this investment thesis is that a bunch of land in Florida will sell for more than the market currently thinks it will. It would have been nice if you had spoken to a Daytona commercial real estate broker or developer who could confirm your hypothesis. Although you have looked at some comparable sales in public records, one plot of land is not always comparable to another - there are many unique issues to raw land including access to roads, access to sewer and water lines, elevation, potential for flooding, and more. There is no way to know the quality of land that CTO holds without further analysis. I think this could be a good investment but it would take more research to be sure.
    Dec 7, 2014. 10:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barnes & Noble Revenue Down, Nook Deal With Microsoft Ends, Investors Flee [View article]
    Liberty no longer has a board seat as they sold their convertible shares in early 2014
    Dec 4, 2014. 11:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GameStop After Earnings: Value Play Or Value Trap? [View article]
    I think your discount rate of 11.25% is too high and your projected earnings growth of 15.35% through 2019 is also too high.
    Nov 24, 2014. 11:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xinyuan Real Estate - The Real Story [View article]
    Any article about XIN that doesn't mention Chinese stock fraud around 2008-2012, XIN's past CFO troubles, and XIN's debt financing at 13% a few years ago, and XIN's selling additional convertible notes to TPG while it claims to have plenty of cash, I cannot take seriously. I am not saying this company is a fraud, and it could be completely legitimate, but if you don't at least mention these things you are not really analyzing the company. That's why this stock is so cheap.
    Oct 3, 2014. 10:04 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Reasons Why Rackspace Is A Sell [View article]
    I think this article is well reasoned and makes a lot of sense. The cloud market is a non-differentiated, capital-intensive market, like producing textiles or selling warehouse storage space. To expect RAX earnings to grow at 19% per year seems a stretch.
    Mar 17, 2014. 07:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett gets TV station as he trims Graham stake [View news story]
    You should clarify that the Berkshire shares are currently held by Graham and being transferred back to Berkshire.
    Mar 12, 2014. 11:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ModernGraham Quarterly Valuation Of Garmin Ltd. [View article]
    If MG values this stock at $15, MG is wrong.
    Mar 7, 2014. 05:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Bother Diversifying, Just Buy Berkshire Hathaway [View article]
    Briar, yes, I did not have my coffee this morning and I was doing a 15-year CAGR over a 20-year term.
    Jan 15, 2014. 05:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Bother Diversifying, Just Buy Berkshire Hathaway [View article]
    Larry, my mistake.
    Sorry about that. I am the one with the wrong numbers.
    Jan 15, 2014. 09:56 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Bother Diversifying, Just Buy Berkshire Hathaway [View article]
    Your numbers are wrong.

    Berkshire A in January 1993 was 11500
    Berkshire A in January 2013 was 140800

    That is about an 18.5% compound annual growth rate, far better than any of the funds you list in your article.

    I am not sure where you got 6.4%.

    That being said, the sub-premise of your article is a good one - past performance usually does not predict future returns.
    Jan 15, 2014. 08:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett more than doubles stake in USG [View news story]
    BRK owned about $280 million of convertible notes, callable by the company. By converting, Berkshire received 87 shares of USG stock per $1,000 of convertible notes. 87 shares of stock is worth about $2,500 while the notes would have been called at 105%, or $1,050. This was a no brainer.
    Jan 2, 2014. 12:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment