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Andrew Shapiro

 
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  • Netflix: Transparency, Accessibility and Corporate Responsibility [View article]
    The Q4 earnings call was a case in point supporting my contention made above that Netflix "'conference call' questions pre-screened, filtered and answers pre-scripted and no chance of real time follow-up is NOT Transparency nor Accessibility."

    I submitted questions for today's "conference call" and they were not presented nor answered. This despite some 'questioners' having a 2nd round of questions 'presented' at the back end of the conf call.

    Perhaps the author of this article, having the playing field so "level" now for himself, could answer the questions I presented below:

    Marketing costs are way down in Q4 from prior quarter. Can you discuss this sizable decline, especially in conjunction with the sizable subscriber growth? Is this reduced rate of marketing expected to continue and such subscriber growth sustainable with continued lower marketing expense?

    Even at 'dog and pony' show, investor can ask unscripted questions and can point out or follow up when answer given aren't really answers.
    Jan 26 07:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Whitney Tilson Is Wrong About Netflix [View article]
    Just read the detailed financial statements for Q4 provided on NFLX's website. Marketing costs were way down in Q4 from prior quarter and are primarily the reason for offsetting an actual gross profit decline. Ignoring the costs of additional content, which will come when it comes, is Netflix' reduced rate of marketing expected to continue and is such subscriber growth sustainable with continued lower marketing expense?
    Jan 26 07:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whitney Tilson: Why We're Short Netflix [View article]
    Read the detailed financial statements provided on NFLX's website. Marketing costs were way down in Q4 from prior quarter and are primarily the reason for offsetting an actual gross profit decline. Ignoring the costs of additional content, which will come when it comes, is Netflix' reduced rate of marketing expected to continue and is such subscriber growth sustainable with continued lower marketing expense?
    Jan 26 06:57 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The SEC approves "say-on-pay" rules granting institutional investors a vote on compensation packages for top execs. New regulations provide a temporary exemption (until January 2013) for smaller publicly traded corporations, though GOP commissioners wanted a permanent exemption.  [View news story]
    Again - an attempt by same 2 commissioners to permanently exempt small public companies from improved corporate governance where it is most needed. Frankly there is no excuse or justification for even the 3 year deferral small companies obtained before implementing this proxy vote. See my article at seekingalpha.com/artic...
    Jan 25 03:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Glass Is Finally Half-Empty: Sell NFLX in Front of Earnings [View article]
    No real substantive content purchases during quarter to add to the costs. Plenty of free subscription promotions during the holidays so I would bet subscriber # grows well. migration of dvd subscribers to streaming will lower avg rev/subscriber but also costs/subscriber from lower delivery costs. Not sure this is the quarter NFLX misses. But it will come. Put purchase should be accompanied with sale of out of money strikes as well.
    Jan 25 01:05 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Whitney Tilson Is Wrong About Netflix [View article]
    Not only does Amazon have similar experience with algorithms for recommendations, they also have greater toehold and market share in Europe and resources to come into US. Not saying that they grab market share from netflix anytime soon but it is just one example of the impediments to the growth expectations built into NFLX market price. Increased costs of dealing with bandwidth capacity constraints are another hurdle that will affect subscriber churn and growth. Increased costs of content purchases necessary to attract subscribers similarly will affect subscriber churn and growth offsetting some of the subscriber growth that content is intending to attract.
    Jan 24 12:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Transparency, Accessibility and Corporate Responsibility [View article]
    I respectfully disagree with your points. Think of the conference call as a trial and the investment community the jury. A preordained and filtered list of questions and answers reveals less truth. While not perfect, the back and forth between the attorney and witness is essential for the jury to ascertain many facets of fact finding and conclusions. The issue is also not 'leveling the playing field'. The importance is that the hard and tough questions get asked and real time followup questions are allowed that let investors get deeper based on answers given. Note, if you read any transcripts of calls I have been able to ask questions on, you will know that the answers don't just benefit me but all those on the call listening.

    Conference call questions pre-screened, filtered and answers pre-scripted and no chance of real time follow-up is NOT Transparency nor Accessibility.
    Jan 22 12:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Transparency, Accessibility and Corporate Responsibility [View article]
    Conference call questions pre-screened, filtered and answers pre-scripted and no chance of real time follow-up is NOT Transparency nor Accessibility.
    Jan 18 09:11 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Coinstar Is a Better Short Than Netflix [View article]
    Nice article and fairly balanced. You highlight the point that I have made in Alan's and other's articles: The current quarter's pre-announcement doesn't seem to be the end of the growth train here, just a misestimation that has compressed multiples. If CSTR gets things back on track, that multiple will expand again for the grand denouement. That will be when location growth hits the wall from saturation. Then multiple compression will be permanent at the same time earnings growth vanishes. I don't think the core of this business goes away - a cheap and convenient way to rent movies that satisfies a portion of the movie watching public, with or without the growth of streaming. But it will be a cash flow milking LBO candidate then and not a growth vehicle.

    Investors ought to also keep an eye on the convertible which matures only in 2014.
    Jan 17 03:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Coinstar Destined to Become Pocket Change? [View article]
    The current quarter's pre-announcement doesn't seem to be the end of the growth train here, just a misestimation that has compressed multiples. If they get things back on track that multiple will expand again for the grand denouement. That will be when location growth hits the wall from saturation. Then multiple compression will be permanent at the same time earnings growth vanishes.
    Jan 17 02:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Would Any Investor Buy Coinstar? [View article]
    I agree with your points re saturation of the kiosk market.
    Jan 15 04:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Would Any Investor Buy Coinstar? [View article]
    I think there is a market for both streaming movies and kiosks. The kiosks in great part serve a market that will exist for some time that doesn't desire to stream for many reasons (technology, quality, and stream speeds, recurring subscription model, etc). There are those that make an 'impulse' rental while at the market. But CSTR's price multiple imputed growth that was not sustainable. I had anticipated CSTR would hit the earnings momentum wall from site saturation and location growth slowdown. This miss came earlier than I expected and unfortunately we weren't yet short for this "event."
    Jan 15 04:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Would Any Investor Buy Coinstar? [View article]
    Alex - Its Feshbach Brothers and I think, while some of the brothers, remain in the investing business, the Feshbach Bros firm closed shop more than 10 years ago.
    Jan 15 03:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Play on Salesforce.com [View article]
    The deferral of tax profits in this instance is a matter of hours - your 12/31 trade vs next trading day 1/3.
    Jan 2 11:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IMAX Climbs on Rumors of Potential Bid but Investors Remain Doubtful [View article]
    Such a price and valuation is so ridiculous that it reduces credibility of the year end rumor. Could rumor have been planted by long PM's wanting a short squeeze at year end to goose their portfolio returns?
    Jan 2 01:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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