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Andrew Shapiro  

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  • Netflix: Stock Run Ends as Amazon Enters Streaming Market [View article]
    DM - yes there is some value to consumers for access to old movies and TV re-runs. But then again your talking about the AMC network then and not HBO or Starz or current new release VOD. That's not worthy of NFLX $11 Billion valuation or expected growth of subscribers from 20MM to 50MM. Just aint going to happen. NFLX has to acquire additional content and with the new Facebook direct distribution portal that price for the good content just went up even more than when AMZN entered the fray.
    Mar 8, 2011. 01:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Just One Stock: Come for the Real Estate; Stick Around for Popcorn and Flicks [View article]
    Hollywood goes global | Bigger abroad
    The Economist - Feb 17th 2011
    Mar 8, 2011. 01:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Stock Run Ends as Amazon Enters Streaming Market [View article]
    This is a win-win for both Facebook and the studios who own and generate the content and a big lose for Netflix.

    The studios have just found a portal of really no cost to them to directly monetize its content to 500 million users rather than a flat fee sale for a specified time period to Netflix who may or may not successfully leverage that purchased content to its 20 million (they hope 50 million in 5 years) users during this purchased window. If the studios can make more money going direct than selling the content to Netflix they are going to do it. Studios likely will monetize the good stuff, while fresh, directly via a facebook or other distribution portal (this is what Google/YHOO/MSFT ought to consider doing too). Netflix is going to get the old stuff unless they pay up. The price for Netflix to obtain fresh desirable content just went up.

    Facebook is not purchasing the content. It is acting as distributor and processor and getting a fee as well as millions of more clicks and viewing activity on its site and the incremental revenues that come from it. In some respects as this activity expands, it MAY very well force the migration of Netflix into lowered margin distributor with alot of platforms but 'only' a 20MM subscriber base that will be less likely to get to the expected 50MM.
    Mar 8, 2011. 11:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Whitney Tilson: Why We Covered Our Netflix Short [View article]
    KL, I Completely agree with your point. US market saturation that NFLX will run into (sooner if AMZN and other competitors strongly emerge) is exactly why NFLX is unlikely to achieve the high expected subscriber growth without huge influx of int'l subscribers. Those subscribers won't come as easily as US subscribers and certainly not as cheaply as
    1) NFLX has little brand equity in int'l markets.
    2) There is competition in Int'l markets (in Europe, its Lovefilm - soon to be Amazon; and in Aussie its quickflix);
    3) There is no net neutrality internationally so video streaming and bandwidth hogging will cost either the service or the subscriber additional money;
    4) Netflix hasn't purchased the content for int'l yet (NFLX content for canada is not same as it offers in US).
    Mar 7, 2011. 04:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More support for tapping into the U.S. strategic oil reserve comes from Robert Reich, as "Americans are still trying to get out of the gravitational pull of the great recession." But he doesn't pin all the blame for rising prices on Middle East unrest: "Developing nations all over the world... are coming out of the recession much faster... so they are also putting pressure on oil prices."  [View news story]
    The reserve is for a material "shock" to prices. Price impacts from increased demand from world wide economies rebounding from recession should not trigger use of the reserve. Rise in price right now is more from speculators attaching a "risk" of shortage premium to price of oil. There isn't even a supply shortage at this time. Market forces should be allowed to play out and reallocation of purchasing and supply decisions should not be interfered with.
    Mar 7, 2011. 11:32 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMC Theatres® and Regal Entertainment Group® Raise the Curtain on Open Road Films [View article]
    How does exhibitor owning distribution co not violate Paramount and other Supreme Court cases that separated the studios from exhibitors decades ago?
    Mar 7, 2011. 08:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Stock Run Ends as Amazon Enters Streaming Market [View article]
    It has not been announced. But my substantial experience tells me its inevitable. It can be in the form of an offering with a syndicate of brokers (who are all now fawning/auditioning for the assignment) or via the acquisition of assets using stock instead of netflix's precious cash.
    Mar 7, 2011. 08:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Stock Run Ends as Amazon Enters Streaming Market [View article]
    Just as love films and its first mover advantage in europe was combined and bought by amazon. Here is another company emerging in Australia.

    Quickflix ready to ride wave of online movies

    The 50MM subscribers expectation for NFLX is too close to market saturation to be done in US alone. Its not going to be easy pickings for NFLX in the international market. That secondary offering better come soon or it may come at a lower valuation.
    Mar 7, 2011. 12:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Stock Run Ends as Amazon Enters Streaming Market [View article]
    Perhaps the buying was just on the headline of the Piper Jaffray report and when investors with access read the the Piper report they discover it had MANY flaws.

    The report wrote: "few, if any, competitors have the resources to make the necessary investment in content to compete with Netflix". but then the report cited five potential competitors Apple, Amazon Google, Hulu and Coinstar. While I accept the argument that Hulu and Coinstar may have fewer resources presently available than Netflix, this is simply not true of the other much larger three.

    In particular, the Piper analyst cites NFLX's need (and ability) to spend $1.3-1.6 billion on streaming content. But then also cites AMZN's $2.7 BILLION of pro-forma net income as an IMPEDIMENT to AMZN spending $1 billion on content. Yet, according to Netflix recent 10-K filing NFLX has trailing net income of only $160 MILLION

    The point I am making is that Piper Jaffray's report and other sell side analyst's cheerleading exercises need to be seen for what they are - self-serving hype to attract and facilitate the inevitable secondary stock offering Netflix will have do to raise necessary capital to acquire content and subscribers to meet growth expectations.
    Mar 6, 2011. 02:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sparton: Ready to Cash In on the Naval Arms Race [View article]
    Chinese defence spending to rise to £56bn
    Increase of 12.7% likely to fuel rivals' concerns about growing military strength of China
    Mar 5, 2011. 01:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • United PanAm Financial: How MBO 'Take-Unders' Freeze Out Shareowners [View article]
    You should have received a ballot but likely didn't like so many other shareholders. This was due to the fact the company paid for only snail mail and your shares were probably held in street name and your broker (or your broker's service) took its sweet time in sending the proxy through.

    What is most outrageous about this is the following. This long delay is a common occurrence on wall street with proxy delivery. Hence the the normal obligation for registered public companies to post such items on EDGAR. But because UPFC was deregistered by Bron and the board a few years ago, 8-k and proxy filings with SEC did not take place.
    Bron knew [by his insistence in the negotiations of the unique exclusions in definition of calculating the "minority"] and the Board should have known that there would likely be many shareholders in your shoes, who would get their proxy late, either after the meeting and most assuredly without sufficient time to make an informed vote decision. These would all be non-votes and/or abstains. Normally in most company deals, those shares would have counted in the Minority (denominator) and thus the majority threshold needed to cram down this 'take-under' would have been higher. In the instance of UPFC the Bron demanded and the Board agreed to exclude all these shares in the count and made the majority of the 'minority' vote easier to achieve.

    Had these 'votes' been included the denominator, you can bet there would have been more time allowed for proxies to arrive and be voted and greater effort made that votes were collected. While the voting tally is being subpoenaed by the class action attorneys, IMO the deal barely passed and would certainly have failed if the definitions of "minority" were what a normal person would expect.

    That is non-votes and abstains would be counted in the minority and the votes of mgmt and other participants in the successor private company would not be included in the minority and toward cramming the deal down. (yes amazingly management's shares were not treated the same as Bron's and were counted!)
    Mar 3, 2011. 09:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Amazon's Prime Streaming Will Disrupt Netflix [View article]
    Dish Network is trying to secure rights from its content partners to offer its own over-the-top video services.
    Mar 1, 2011. 12:31 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is Cooked; Get Out of Amazon and Coinstar As Well [View article]
    Blo - if those numbers are indeed correct (and I am not sure that many will really cancel rather than maintain both subs) then, while relatively small 'dent' in total subscribers is quite a large blow to number of expected net NEW subscribers - the key number for current expectations on NFLX.
    Mar 1, 2011. 08:55 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is Cooked; Get Out of Amazon and Coinstar As Well [View article]
    I think we share the same sentiment, not differing ones. I was just making the point that CSTR MUST find a partner in order to survive the squeeze from both sides - a better capitalized buyer of Blockbuster kiosk business and - the growing market share of view-it-now options of streaming and VOD
    Mar 1, 2011. 08:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Reasons Why Netflix Will Soundly Beat Amazon in Online Video [View article]
    Amazon does not have to 'beat' Netflix for NFLX stock price and market valuation to become more rationale. The emergence of any competition from such a large competitor either slows down Netflix subscriber growth or compresses Netflix margins or a combination of both. Neither were baked into NFLX valuation. IMO the full ramifications or 'cost' of this emerging competition is not yet fully priced into NFLX stock price either. Various scenarios vs Amazon, IMO none of them good for NFLX valuation give present stock price levels and analyst expectations.

    1) AMZN announces expanded content offerings above their small current offerings.
    2) NFLX pays up and further expands its offerings, further compressing NFLX margins.
    3) Subscriber price competition emerges
    Feb 28, 2011. 02:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment