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Andrew Shapiro  

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  • Do Netflix Shares Deserve a $270 Valuation? [View article]
    How does one get from 20MM subscribers to GS estimates 60MM subscribers and not trigger revolt from bandwidth providers

    Analyst: Cable will likely mimic AT&T's usage-based broadband pricing plans
    March 16, 2011 — 11:50am ET | By Sean Buckley
    www.fiercetelecom.com/...

    Netflix sees the threat and the pig is beginning to squeal about it.

    Netflix rails against AT&T's proposed data cap plans
    March 17, 2011 — 12:10pm ET | By Sean Buckley
    www.fiercetelecom.com/...
    Mar 17, 2011. 07:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is Cooked; Get Out of Amazon and Coinstar As Well [View article]
    Netflix rails against AT&T's proposed data cap plans
    March 17, 2011 — 12:10pm ET | By Sean Buckley
    www.fiercetelecom.com/...

    Analyst: Cable will likely mimic AT&T's usage-based broadband pricing plans
    March 16, 2011 — 11:50am ET | By Sean Buckley
    www.fiercetelecom.com/...
    Mar 17, 2011. 07:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Movie Theaters: Predictable Businesses, Favorable Outlook, Reliable Yield, Cheap Stocks [View article]
    While, I think Netflix is off topic with this article's focus, as long as this side discussion is being continued. - The NFLX investment allocation behavior you speak of is much riskier than buying proven content. Just as companies with highly leveraged balance sheets, thus carrying higher risk, get lower valuation multiples, NFLX making such 'investments' in unproven content ought to shrink its multiple.
    Mar 17, 2011. 06:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Movie Theaters: Predictable Businesses, Favorable Outlook, Reliable Yield, Cheap Stocks [View article]
    mje - The cinema industry is evolving as you suggest; different auditoriums for different audiences and film product. For example, Reading Int'l (RDI) has "Gold Lounges" with large plush chairs, tables and dining with liquor and age limits. CNK, RGC, CKEC and RDI all are rolling out their versions of 'IMAX-clone' big screen and big sound auditoriums. 3D is a differentiator to some movie goers, while Art/indie product is another.
    Mar 17, 2011. 05:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mercer: New Record Q3 EBITDA Accelerates Debt Reduction [View article]
    I do think there will be an opportunity to return to this investment in the common stock when the risk/reward is improved. That could mean at this price down the road with an upwardly sloping commodity price curve or it could mean at lower stock price levels.
    Mar 17, 2011. 03:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One of CenterPoint Energy's (CNP -0.8%) natural gas pipelines exploded in south Minneapolis this morning, starting a fire and forcing emergency responders to shut down parts of two highways. There were no injuries involved, and CenterPoint says it's investigating.  [View news story]
    The dangers are incomparable. There is no hidden insidious slow death from radioactivity involved.
    Mar 17, 2011. 01:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Breaking: UNSC vote on U.S. resolution to authorize military force in Libya likely to take place at 3:30PM ET (Reuters). Update: Reuters now reports the time for the vote as 6PM ET.  [View news story]
    Not saying US should be proposing such actions or even supporting someone else's resolution to propose such military actions, but If we were going to propose or support such actions, shouldn't this have taken place at least a week or more ago, when the rebels had loyalists on the run and momentum?

    To come now is like putting in the closer in the ninth inning when the team is down by 5 runs.
    Mar 17, 2011. 01:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mercer: New Record Q3 EBITDA Accelerates Debt Reduction [View article]
    Q4 came in great as I expected and further sets the stage for the company to pay down even more debt. However, the stock price run has also reflected much if not all of this. I am not surprised to see the insider selling. Before the downward sloping pulp pricing curve somewhat flattened (its still downward sloping) we closed our entire position, both our deep-in-the-money convertible notes and the much smaller short stock hedge. Did quite well on the investment but left before many of the analyst oft delayed upgrades. Then again pigs get slaughtered.
    Mar 17, 2011. 11:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greater Pain Ahead for Netflix [View article]
    David Pogue NY Times column discusses Zediva offering current movie streams before Netflix- "A Clever End Run Around the Movie-Streaming Gremlins" www.nytimes.com/2011/0...
    Mar 17, 2011. 11:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: New Competition a Threat to the Multiple, Not the Business [View article]
    Indeed, the purchase of a show that hasn't even shown its pilot and to purchase TWO seasons in advance would be a very risky deployment of capital that most experienced networks don't even do. When a company assumes greater risk, whether it be by increased debt/equity leverage or R&D expenditures (thats what this purchase would be) should warrant a valuation multiple contraction not a valuation multiple expansion.
    Mar 17, 2011. 11:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: New Competition a Threat to the Multiple, Not the Business [View article]
    Content, whether it be renewal of Starz at market prices or forays in original programming like this 'House of Cards" (so aptly named) has a cost that has to be paid for with Netflix's precious cash or newly issued shares. This purchase of a series, that hasn't even aired its pilot, is rumored to be around $80-100MM.
    Mar 16, 2011. 05:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: New Competition a Threat to the Multiple, Not the Business [View article]
    "Is Netflix Abandoning Its Business Model Again?"

    moviecitynews.com/2011.../
    Mar 16, 2011. 05:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greater Pain Ahead for Netflix [View article]
    2 articles on new online movie rental service Zediva Targeting Netflix with $1.99 Rentals $NFLX

    www.pcmag.com/article2...

    www.blackbookmag.com/a...
    Mar 16, 2011. 03:23 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix's Streaming Cost per Movie Drops 50% From 2009 [View article]
    Let us not forget that despite the lower cost to Netflix for the streaming, its not just the last mile providers who have problems with all the nflx traffic.

    "Ohio University Blocks Netflix, Backpedals"
    By Janko Roettgers Mar. 15, 2011, 2:26pm PT

    gigaom.com/video/ohio-.../
    Mar 16, 2011. 03:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix (NFLX +0.9%) is reportedly in negotiations to acquire a drama series which would be its first original TV show. Netflix could be looking to cement its high growth by following the strategy of HBO, whose original titles have played a big part in its success.  [View news story]
    Really - GS backing House of Cards production co?? - if correct Wow! Total reversal of investment opinion on no new news and then this potential costly purchase of content to a GS backed production company. - GS seems to be really primping and priming to win the 'beauty contest' to lead an inevitable NFLX secondary to raise funds to buy content like this.
    Mar 16, 2011. 03:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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