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Andrew Shapiro

 
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  • Sparton: Ready to Cash In on the Naval Arms Race [View article]
    New article on the subject

    Towards stealth and sea denial - submarine arms race in East Asia
    http://bit.ly/1EhnggV
    Oct 5, 2014. 02:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mace Security: Prominent Brand At Fire Sale Price [View article]
    They have many assorted distribution channels including direct internet.
    Sep 22, 2014. 05:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mace Security: Prominent Brand At Fire Sale Price [View article]
    Mace Security Int'l to Supply Cleveland Police Department with Pepper Spray http://bit.ly/1rhDYr4
    Sep 22, 2014. 10:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carmike Cinemas: It's Time To Revisit The Movies [View article]
    I think you valuable comment here could have or should be an article in its own right.

    The attributes you cite that attracted you to in the first place (hidden assets, low relative multiple) and some you cite now (strong balance sheet, favorable 2015 prospects) all still exist and even more so in geographically diversified exhibitor Reading International (RDI).

    Check out its recent 10-Q http://1.usa.gov/1lYpxYS

    Strong results and debt paydown show RDI at an an unadjusted EV/EBITDA of only 6.8X. Furthermore if you net out the over $58MM of VERY high quality receivables listed as "land held for sale" in both Current assets and LT assets, net debt of Reading and adjusted EV is even lower and the adjusted multiple become only 5.7X!

    Note, despite being classified as 'land held for sale', the Moonee Ponds parcel sale to huge Leighton Properties has satisfied all contingencies and is in escrow and the Burwood sale has already closed and title transferred to huge property player, Australand, which BTW has now been acquired by even larger Frasers from Singapore.

    Further to this undervaluation, RDI has substantial additional developable real estate long held on its books that has appreciated in value sizably above book value. These parcels are being migrated into development or monetization.

    With the patriarch of the Cotter family that controls RDI recently resigned from all positions (including the board) due to health reasons, the migration into development and/or monetization of these assets will take priority over any new property acquisitions which Cotter, Sr, directed.
    Sep 11, 2014. 02:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carmike Cinemas: It's Time To Revisit The Movies [View article]
    I think you valuable comment here could have or should be an article in its own right.

    The attributes you cite that attracted you to in the first place (hidden assets, low relative multiple) and some you cite now (strong balance sheet, favorable 2015 prospects) all still exist and even more so in geographically diversified exhibitor Reading International (RDI).

    Check out its recent 10-Q http://1.usa.gov/1lYpxYS

    Strong results and debt paydown show RDI at an an unadjusted EV/EBITDA of only 6.8X. Furthermore if you net out the over $58MM of VERY high quality receivables listed as "land held for sale" in both Current assets and LT assets, net debt of Reading and adjusted EV is even lower and the adjusted multiple become only 5.8X!

    Note, despite being classified as 'land held for sale', the Moonee Ponds parcel sale to huge Leighton Properties has satisfied all contingencies and is in escrow and the Burwood sale has already closed and title transferred to huge property player, Australand, which BTW has now been acquired by even larger Frasers from Singapore.

    Further to this undervaluation, RDI has substantial additional developable real estate long held on its books that has appreciated in value sizably above book value. These parcels are being migrated into development or monetization.

    With the patriarch of the Cotter family that controls RDI recently resigned from all positions (including the board) due to health reasons, the migration into development and/or monetization of these assets will take priority over any new property acquisitions which Cotter, Sr, directed.
    Sep 11, 2014. 02:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mace Security: Prominent Brand At Fire Sale Price [View article]
    Very good article
    Sep 9, 2014. 01:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mace Security: Prominent Brand At Fire Sale Price [View article]
    A reverse stock split prior to the return of MACE to sustained profitability would not be a productive exercise.

    After such a successful return to profitability achievement, a reverse split would be great to execute in conjunction with initiation of some sell-side research coverage and return to a more favorable public listing
    Sep 8, 2014. 09:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Birks Group: The Other Famous Jeweler Known For Its Blue Boxes And Poised For A Turnaround [View article]
    As long as the Count controls the voting shares of this company, there will never be real reform and sustainable growth and profits.
    Sep 6, 2014. 01:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sparton Has Momentum, Just Not In Sales [View article]
    Exactly
    Sep 5, 2014. 08:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Box office debate: Secular decline or smashing 2015 on tap? [View news story]
    just one of many big franchise movies in 2015
    Aug 28, 2014. 08:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Important Events In Front Of Reading International Q2 Report [View article]
    your question answered itself - yes. upwards. Actual $ value, no.
    Aug 28, 2014. 08:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Box office debate: Secular decline or smashing 2015 on tap? [View news story]
    There is a difference to the volatility of success on brand new franchises, which require greater up-front P&A expenditures to drive audience. However, once a franchise hit has been created or a blockbuster is made. Sequels have much higher chance of success. This summer's slate didn't contain as many sequels or premium 3D sequels, all creating headwinds vs. Summer 2013's record numbers.

    2015 has already slated more sequels and next stage sagas of past blockbuster franchises than in years past. If nothing else, next year's box office has a huge tailwind.

    Bottom line, - Movie exhibition is a stable cash flow business that is modestly (with a near-term add-on from adding 3D into the mix) growing per unit. Overall worldwide movie attendance has been and remains stable to up. US Movie attendance has been fairly stable, averaging between 1.2 billion and 1.4 billion admissions annually since 1994. (Source: National Association of Theatre Owners [NATO]) Over the same period of time, international admissions have grown decently. During a >15-year stretch since 1994, there has not yet been secular decline in movie attendance, despite higher ticket prices, higher concession prices, the initial advent of home video technology and its several technological 'breakthroughs' migrating from tape to dvd and now digital streaming.

    Going out to a movie remains one of the least expensive forms of out-of-home entertainment available. Compare a pair of movie tickets + concessions to same at football, basketball, broadway, comedy club or other form of entertainment. "Date night" is not going away in the long run and it is the quality of movie product is what drives attendance in the short run.

    The digital commoditization of video media via excessive shortening of the exhibition 'window' is not a replacement for movie theaters either, its just another form or way accessing in-home entertainment. The out-of-home box office first release is essential to create buzz and demand for SUBSEQUENT in-home video use. Studios receive 45-65% of the box office revenue as film rents. They are not going to kill the golden goose that gives both up front and drives back-end home video cash flows.
    Aug 28, 2014. 09:16 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cinemark: Still The Best Bet In Movie Theatres? [View article]
    read much if not all of those articles. RDI remains my pick for best risk/reward and margin of safety with hard tangible real estate assets, should the exhibition space suffer more than periodic wave of bad quality movies.
    Aug 28, 2014. 09:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Important Events In Front Of Reading International Q2 Report [View article]
    While Cotter Sr. had already slowed the pace of raw land acquisition down and boosted development of existing parcels into cash flow and sale monetizations, the kids aren’t dad and they know it. I think the kids eye will be on developing and monetizing undeveloped real estate vs more land acquisition. Furthermore, IMO cinema 123 has an increased probability of being a JV or complete sale to enable direct development of Union Square.
    Aug 28, 2014. 02:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tuesday: A Good Day to Short the Cinema [View article]
    Reading International (NASDAQ:RDI) appears to me to be best risk reward in the industry. Here are some articles http://bit.ly/xhUDRE

    Most conservative balance sheet (Net of RDI's recent sale of two non-cash flowing development parcels, RDI's balance sheet is even stronger), substantial owned rather than leased real estate, far lower adjusted EV/EBITDA multiple and huge embedded unrealized gain and real estate development upside in several Reading parcels, particularly NY City.
    Aug 27, 2014. 06:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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