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Andrew Shapiro

 
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  • Is Carmike Cinemas Climbing Too Fast? [View article]
    acquiring goodwill and intangibles or creating it via acquisition price is a function of payment vs prior book value. Under GAAP, Assets have to be marked at the lower of market or book value, not marked up. If low book value assets generated a boatload of cash flow, an accretive and good acquisition could still be made by paying a low multiple for that cash flow and with cheap capital. It remains to be seen what cash flow really is to come from DCIN's acquisitions.
    Jun 11 01:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Carmike Cinemas Climbing Too Fast? [View article]
    I don't think all the words this author has redundantly written in an attempt to support imputing past price movements per 100 screens acquired will equate to new price movement per 100 screen acquired is worthy of an SA "Pro" designation and paywall treatment.

    1) Many Muvico auditoriums were big state-of-the-art in size and attendance
    2) The DCIN acquisition involves millions of newly issued shares. All future acquisition impacts are now to be divided over a much larger share base and have far lower per share impacts.
    3) The assumed debt of the acquisitions increases not only gearing on upside but also on downside and this increased risk is an argument for reduced valuation multiple on more volatile stream.
    4) What matters is whether an acquisition is made but whether its accretive and accretiveness is based on EV/EBITDA less Cap Ex paid and the cost of financing to buy it.

    I think Carmike's CEO is outstanding and has a good strategy. That he is using his highly valued shares to acquire DCIN only further reinforces my views on his skills. That being said, the high valuation is an impediment for CKEC itself to be acquired for a further premium.

    All and all - a very frustrating and verbose article to read
    Jun 10 07:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Real Estate Progress & Strong Q3 Results For Reading International [View article]
    Australand $AUAOF ups pressure with $65m land purchase from Reading Int'l $RDI
    http://bit.ly/1nUDDuL
    Jun 6 12:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shareholder Activism: Unlocking The Door To Good Governance And Higher Returns [View article]
    all good points. Congrats on this campaign's success so far. Couldn't agree with you more of the opportunities and value to be created via small- and micro-cap activist investing, our focus for over 21 years now.

    To see the possibilities of what value might get created here in the next few years, take a look at the results of our successful 2008 proxy contest at Sparton Corp. Operating performance and $SPA shares have taken off from a low in 2009 below $2/share to over $30/share early in 2014.

    My articles on Sparton can be found at http://bit.ly/1nRZ6V9
    Jun 5 09:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Premier Exhibitions' Titanic Sale Sunk? [View article]
    This will be a tourist attraction- A Chinese co is rebuilding a $160MM full-scale replica of the RMS #Titanic, http://ow.ly/xBeBQ $PRXI
    Jun 4 01:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Premier Exhibitions' Titanic Sale Sunk? [View article]
    Violin played on #Titanic auctioned for $1.46MM; Should play role in appraisers assessment of what 1000's of artifacts recovered from the wreck by $PRXI now worth. http://ow.ly/xBcXb
    Jun 4 12:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Although Small, New Source Energy Partners LP Worth A Look [View article]
    You shouldn't forget the sizable amount of bank credit and borrowing available from Equal's very under-leveraged balance sheet.

    But alas - some other personal interest has kept NSLP mgt from pursuing this transaction so far.
    Jun 2 01:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reading International: Index Fund Selling Presents Unique Liquidity Opportunity [View article]
    The difference in value from 2010 estimates of $80MM reflects several factors:

    1) The auction's due diligence process turned up a decent amount of Environmental remediation cost. As of the closing date this past month, Australand takes on all ongoing environmental remediation costs. This amount is larger for intended residential development vs. Reading's commercial development.

    2) Aussie $ to US $ rates have shifted quite a bit.

    3) Aussie economy has great dependence on the hard commodity demands of China. Those demands and Aussie economy have slowed over the past few years.

    The fact that RDI accepted and quickly closed on the parcel sale at this price, may also telegraph other things going on toward monetizing more assets and finally getting focussed on accelerating development of the others.
    Jun 2 01:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Although Small, New Source Energy Partners LP Worth A Look [View article]
    What raises my concerns regarding the Sponsor and GP's relationship with NSLP is that the clearest and most synergistic acquisition opportunity right next to New Source in the Hunton, that of under-levered and dewatering specialist Equal Energy (EQU) which is on pace to generate $40MM EBITDA BEFORE consolidating public company synergies, is not being pursued.

    Equal is up for sale and its current agreement with Petroflow Energy is subject to only a very low $2MM break-up fee and a "fiduciary out" in the event a higher than $5.43/share proposal emerges. Several large shareholders, including ourselves, have come forth saying they would favor a plan that would monetize part of EQU while allowing continuing ownership in the leveraged stub equity.

    This could similarly be achieved by a combination cash and MLP share interest proposal from NSLP.

    My only guess why this is not being pursued is fear by NSLP management that they would lose control of the conflicted transactions they have been engaging in.
    But I guess if they made their offer more cash and less MLP units, they could maintain control and still complete the highly synergistic acquisition.

    Their time is running out. EQU has scheduled its special meeting to vote on the Petroflow deal on July 8.
    May 31 03:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Real Estate Progress & Strong Q3 Results For Reading International [View article]
    Reading Int'l Announces Closing of Its AUS$65.0MM Burwood Property Sale; Retained first right to place RDI multiplex on parcel should Australand Holdings (OTCPK:AUAOF) desire to include a cinema in this large development. http://bit.ly/1k4C22K
    May 29 01:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reading International: An Asset Play First, Earnings Play Second [View article]
    Reading Int'l Announces Closing of Its AUS$65.0MM Burwood Property Sale; Retained first right to place RDI multiplex on parcel should Australand Holdings (OTCPK:AUAOF) desire to include a cinema in this large development. http://bit.ly/1k4C22K

    In the past, I have provided substantial information on several of Reading's key properties with links even more detail to assist in one's calculation of fair value of these parcels in my many articles written on RDI found here http://bit.ly/xhUDRE
    May 29 01:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Real Estate Progress & Strong Q3 Results For Reading International [View article]
    Reading Int'l annual meeting slideshow Illustrates enormous asset value still not presently reflected in $RDI price http://ow.ly/wVZjG
    May 16 02:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quality Systems Has A 20% Margin Of Safety [View article]
    After we forced cleaning things up here with a successfuly proxy fight in late '90's, the ownership structure and governance has "devolved" into a morass emblematic of an endless middle-eastern war. With the loss of Pat Cline, management here remains a ship lost at sea.
    May 14 04:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Real Estate Progress & Strong Q3 Results For Reading International [View article]
    Well regardless of whether RDI doesn't make the end of May measurement cut or not, then there is over 340K shares short that will be on the buy side covering. If RDI stays in there is no supply. But if RDI gets dropped then supply will be in excess to this buying.
    May 7 11:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Real Estate Progress & Strong Q3 Results For Reading International [View article]
    The fact they are pair trade hedges means I am specifically negative relative to RDI as a play on public exhibitors. There is some foreign currency and international exhibition component in CNK that is unique to both CNK and RDI. CKEC has a real good CEO but, without a dividend for stabilizing floor price, is a bad risk/reward choice at present prices.
    May 7 11:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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