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Andrew Shapiro  

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  • Reading International reports Q4 results [View news story]
    Very good results, especially considering the currency headwinds encountered during the period. Note, in particular, the subsequent events. How much is 23,000 sq ft of additional 'upper floor' space worth in Union Square, Manhattan NYC? THIS WEEK, Reading just got redevelopment plans that included such additional rentable space approved by Landmarks Commission.
    Mar 13, 2015. 10:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Premier Exhibitions: No known reason for recent decline [View news story]
    Further proves implementation of reverse splits best done when accompanied by good news.
    Mar 11, 2015. 09:19 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Updating My Bullish Thesis On AMC Entertainment [View article]
    LGF is no cinema exhibitor, its a studio. Big difference.

    For a cinema exhibitor, 10X proj EBITDA is very outlandish. Its why no private equity deal for Regal could be had. If you feel such multiples are good then why limit yourself to the names AMC, CKEC, CNK and RGC that are already trading at such multiples because of sell-side analyst coverage an sponsorship?

    Consider an exhibitor that has no analyst coverage and sponsorship - yet. Reading International $RDI Just like the analysts take out value of NCMI or screenvision in calculating eV/EBITDA multiples on these widely followed exhibitors, if you reduce eV for any conservative value for the non-cash flow generating developmental real estate (or even just the two Melbourne Aus parcels already sold for which proceeds are to be collected) and you are getting the 11th largest exhibitor in US, 3rd largest in New ZEaland and 4th largest in Australia all for no more than 2x-4X EV/EBITDA multiple. The upside % to your 10X EV/eBITDA "fair value" is compelling.
    Mar 5, 2015. 03:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Updating My Bullish Thesis On AMC Entertainment [View article]
    6.5x-7.5x if you are using 'projected' ebitda and already assuming growth. another point, maybe, if not projecting higher ebitda.
    Mar 4, 2015. 02:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Updating My Bullish Thesis On AMC Entertainment [View article]
    I have invested in Theater exhibition sector for over 2 decades, that you use a 9+X multiple of EV/projected EBITDA wipes out all credibility on the rest of your analysis.
    Mar 4, 2015. 01:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Qihoo higher after announcing $200M buyback is finished [View news story]
    No opinion or view whatsoever. Just commented on the illogical comment and conclusion posted by the author. Was once short QIHU long ago. Didn't make the return we should have had we stuck around.
    Feb 28, 2015. 05:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Qihoo higher after announcing $200M buyback is finished [View news story]
    The stock price was being partially propped up with company purchases. Often when company buyback exists well above company's book value/share or modest P/E multiple, buyback's purpose leads to purchases insensitive to price as well. If $QIHU buyback exhausted then that buyer is no longer present.
    Feb 28, 2015. 04:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Qihoo higher after announcing $200M buyback is finished [View news story]
    Why would the elimination of a buyer (and a price insensitive one at that) be considered a positive??
    Feb 27, 2015. 07:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mercer EPS of $0.05 [View news story]
    Thus consensus GREATLY exceeded. Yet the stock down for the day. Illustrates how little research the bulk of investors conduct these days.
    Feb 15, 2015. 12:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mercer EPS of $0.05 [View news story]
    Net results definitely not comparable. New quarter includes non-recurring charge to prepay expensive debt and replace with much lower costing debt.
    Feb 12, 2015. 05:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Taser To Protect Your Investment [View article]
    @jeffrey Yes its true that companies like that spend billions overpaying for companies. But again that is speculating and not investing. Arguably then we all should buy and bid up every smaller company because some larger company will gobble them up.

    Was just trying to further educate and help a layman be more than that.
    Feb 1, 2015. 03:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Taser To Protect Your Investment [View article]
    That is not a 'buyout.' That is being the target of a strategic acquisition. I understand being sold to a strategic partner, means current shareholders are being cashed out of their shares like a leveraged buyout. But the sales multiple and ramifications are very different. Presumably the strategic partner has synergies that would provide greater value to the buyer than to anyone else. However, unless there are TWO or more strategic bidders there is no reason for the first strategic buyer (in your example, Google, which IMO is no fit at all vs others) to share with selling shareholders any of the synergies this buyer is bringing to the table. You are HOPING for someone (and presumably two or more someone's) to pay an even more ridiculous valuation on expected future growth than the current market values TASR's future EXPECTED growth already. What you are HOPING for is the Greater Fool Theory to play out and Google and others like it to participate in the game. That is speculating not investing. Investing is to find the companies in the sector addressing needs where the markets have NOT YET valued such growth already. There are several in the space. My favorite is $MACE
    Jan 31, 2015. 01:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Taser To Protect Your Investment [View article]
    A buyout? Are kidding me? Is that just a word to you? PE buyouts are predicated on making a leveraged return. You would have to be crazy to slap a lot of debt onto this company and its present business model. Perhaps AFTER and IF many many more large recurring revenue contracts are put in place. But not before.
    Jan 30, 2015. 09:52 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Amazon Is Expanding Original Content To The Big Screen [View article]
    @Krusty,

    Respectfully I disagree. There is nothing different today with streaming vs the VCR and then DVD, etc. of old. People seek out-of-home entertainment and despite the cost of a ticket and concessions today, movies provide that entertainment cheaper than almost anything around.

    People seek to be part of the buzz and conversation and the experience of movie-going. Frankly without either the huge P&A (promotions/ads) budget and media buzz of a box office opening or the incredibly rare North Korean hacker experience, all movies direct to DVD or direct to streaming will fall mostly on 'deaf ears' and die on the vine.

    Exhibition not going away. Is it evolving to continue to be the go-to for 'date night' absolutely. Cushy chairs, dine-in theaters, immersive sound, motorized/rocking seats, reserved seating, theaters that encourage tweeting on screen, etc are coming. However, the general demand and associated inter-relationship between studios, exhibitors and the consumer not going to change.

    Unless there is a communicable disease or other factors that pose serious risk of people gathering together for a shared audio-visual experience.
    Jan 23, 2015. 09:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did Amazon.com Choose The Best Model For Movie Production [View article]
    The Interview was not a "success" The controversy created enormous marketing and distribution power that would have cost at least $100MM. I can only imagine what little it would have generated at box office and secondary distribution had the N Koreans not acted.
    Jan 22, 2015. 09:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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