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Andrew Shapiro

 
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  • Big Defense Budget Boost For Sonobuoys To Grow Sparton's 'Razor Blade' Business [View article]
    Lots of very good things and growth have occurred for Sparton's fundamental business, including several substantially accretive acquisitions. Sparton's stock price has also risen substantially, reflecting Sparton's growth and favorable prospects. The valuation multiple (at least historical multiple) on Sparton's shares has expanded as the stock price has exceeded the historical growth of Sparton's financial results so far.

    Over the course of the past year, as Sparton's valuation multiple has expanded, we have made Sparton a smaller portion of our portfolio. As of earlier this year, Sparton no longer is one of our largest investment allocations and in fact is one of our smallest, though we continue to own some shares.

    I view the company's prospects not only not diminishing but increasing, especially with respect to sonobuoy sales prospects and also recent acquisition synergies in all of Sparton's segments. As a result of SPA's recent sizable decline in share price, the valuation multiples are getting interesting. Though we have some more compelling and better risk/reward situations on our plate right now, including some companies I have written about on SA in addition to Sparton. (e.g. RDI)
    Apr 8 09:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • I Will Short Pandora Furiously Until The Letter 'P' Key Falls Off My Keyboard [View article]
    yes and progressive sale of OTM puts would help offset the cost of the vol premium
    Mar 23 01:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora gains on Microsoft acquisition rumor. Albert Fried skeptical. [View news story]
    DJ Overriding Reason Microsoft Wouldn't Buy Pandora -- Market Talk

    12:17 EST - Pandora (P) hits fresh record highs amid chatter
    Microsoft (MSFT) could be considering a buyout. But Albert Fried calls
    that prospect "a fairy tale," with the reasons starting with who's
    running the Internet radio outfit--Brian McAndrews. He was CEO of
    aQuantive, an ad exchange MSFT bought in 2007 for $6.3B and which was
    the subject of a $6.2B write-down in 2012. McAndrews stayed at MSFT
    until 2009 and then did some venture-capital work until September's
    hiring by P. The investment bank suspects aQuantive is one of the
    reasons both Steve Ballmer gave up the CEO's post and that McAndrews
    wasn't a potential successor. "We think the Microsoft board is likely
    to refuse a transaction with Brian McAndrews." P rises 3.8% to $39.28
    while MSFT is flat. (kevin.kingsbury@wsj.com)
    (END) Dow Jones Newswires
    02-26-14 1217ET
    Feb 26 12:57 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora gains on Microsoft acquisition rumor. Albert Fried skeptical. [View news story]
    Why does SA editors provide a link to a twitter feed that is closed to viewing. That doesn't provide ANY support to their editorial comment.
    Feb 26 12:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • HCI Group: Inadequate Reinsurance Coverage Poses Potentially Catastrophic Risks To Shareholders, Policyholders And Taxpayers [View article]
    @stopprintin - see my comment 30419293 with q's to you above (SA won't let me repost here)

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Feb 25 09:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HCI Group: Inadequate Reinsurance Coverage Poses Potentially Catastrophic Risks To Shareholders, Policyholders And Taxpayers [View article]
    when is OxRe going public? Has is filed S-1?

    If OxRe gets bigger capitalization from infusion by public investors, what do you see as the positive/negative implications for HCI?
    Feb 24 02:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is A House Of Cards On The Verge Of Collapse [View article]
    You greatly overestimate addressable US market. Its not all households but only those households that have appropriate speed broadband, which, according to US Govt reports is much smaller - in the 80MM range. Domestic saturation and slowing subscriber growth in US will come sooner than your analysis.

    With net neutrality now up in the air, and higher costs for appropriate bandwidth likely rising (eg. payment deal with CMCSA), either NFLX's margins have to compress for payments to ISP's or costs have to be passed along to consumers, which has to impact subscriber growth/attrition or subscriber acquisition costs.
    Feb 24 01:59 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goodrich Petroleum Corporation declares $0.6719 dividend [View news story]
    SA editors - These are dividends on several classes of GDP preferred shares and NOT GDP common stock! There is no 17.58% yield. Bad reporting.
    Feb 20 09:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Regal Cinemas: The Only Way To Invest In Movies [View article]
    there is a sizable demographic and population that prefers new release entertainment and out-of-home. When you and your fiancee have kids - 'date night' might become quite a bit different.
    Feb 18 09:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Private Market Value Strategy: Part 1 - Discounted Assets [View article]
    Also - for a company like Reading International (RDI) combining your EV and asset value approach help confirm considering RDI and companies like it as very undervalued.

    Taking Reading's Enterprise value of $305MM (market cap of around $170 plus net debt of $135) and subtracting out reasonable conservative real estate value on Reading's developable real estate parcels that do not YET generate any meaningful cash flow (they are to be developed into cash flow or sold) provides an adjusted Enterprise value less than $100MM and perhaps even negative for Reading's substantial cinema exhibition business which is the #3 movie business in New Zealand, #4 in Australia and #12 in the US (with sizable market share in Hawaii, San Diego, and NY City) With $36MM in cinema cash flow we are talking about less than EV/EBITDA of less than 3x on this operating business.
    Feb 15 06:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Latest Data Confirms That Pandora's Business Model Is Broken [View article]
    Be careful what you throw your conviction to. - Their soft guidance could also be under-promise and over-deliver. Apple became quite good at it.
    Feb 10 09:05 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Latest Data Confirms That Pandora's Business Model Is Broken [View article]
    It will take many many years before P profits/cash flow MIGHT grow into present valuation. If author is correct, what do you think P stock price goes to. Bottom line - Is P the best risk/reward play you can find in this market?
    Feb 9 07:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Pushes Closer To The Edge [View article]
    Amazon's profits have not grown with surge in revenues. Substantial growth in costs below gross profit are not fixed either. Neither NFLX or AMZN can shut off essential s,g&a costs without torching their revenues.
    Feb 7 09:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Pushes Closer To The Edge [View article]
    Revenues does not equal cash flow or profits. Ask Amazon.
    Feb 6 04:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora: User Base Grows But No Profit In Sight [View article]
    @tenplustwo - >$6 BILLION worth of profits?
    Feb 6 04:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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