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Andrew Shapiro  

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  • Birks Group: The Other Famous Jeweler Known For Its Blue Boxes And Poised For A Turnaround [View article]
    As long as the Count controls the voting shares of this company, there will never be real reform and sustainable growth and profits.
    Sep 6, 2014. 01:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sparton Has Momentum, Just Not In Sales [View article]
    Exactly
    Sep 5, 2014. 08:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Box office debate: Secular decline or smashing 2015 on tap? [View news story]
    just one of many big franchise movies in 2015
    Aug 28, 2014. 08:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Important Events In Front Of Reading International Q2 Report [View article]
    your question answered itself - yes. upwards. Actual $ value, no.
    Aug 28, 2014. 08:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Box office debate: Secular decline or smashing 2015 on tap? [View news story]
    There is a difference to the volatility of success on brand new franchises, which require greater up-front P&A expenditures to drive audience. However, once a franchise hit has been created or a blockbuster is made. Sequels have much higher chance of success. This summer's slate didn't contain as many sequels or premium 3D sequels, all creating headwinds vs. Summer 2013's record numbers.

    2015 has already slated more sequels and next stage sagas of past blockbuster franchises than in years past. If nothing else, next year's box office has a huge tailwind.

    Bottom line, - Movie exhibition is a stable cash flow business that is modestly (with a near-term add-on from adding 3D into the mix) growing per unit. Overall worldwide movie attendance has been and remains stable to up. US Movie attendance has been fairly stable, averaging between 1.2 billion and 1.4 billion admissions annually since 1994. (Source: National Association of Theatre Owners [NATO]) Over the same period of time, international admissions have grown decently. During a >15-year stretch since 1994, there has not yet been secular decline in movie attendance, despite higher ticket prices, higher concession prices, the initial advent of home video technology and its several technological 'breakthroughs' migrating from tape to dvd and now digital streaming.

    Going out to a movie remains one of the least expensive forms of out-of-home entertainment available. Compare a pair of movie tickets + concessions to same at football, basketball, broadway, comedy club or other form of entertainment. "Date night" is not going away in the long run and it is the quality of movie product is what drives attendance in the short run.

    The digital commoditization of video media via excessive shortening of the exhibition 'window' is not a replacement for movie theaters either, its just another form or way accessing in-home entertainment. The out-of-home box office first release is essential to create buzz and demand for SUBSEQUENT in-home video use. Studios receive 45-65% of the box office revenue as film rents. They are not going to kill the golden goose that gives both up front and drives back-end home video cash flows.
    Aug 28, 2014. 09:16 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cinemark: Still The Best Bet In Movie Theatres? [View article]
    read much if not all of those articles. RDI remains my pick for best risk/reward and margin of safety with hard tangible real estate assets, should the exhibition space suffer more than periodic wave of bad quality movies.
    Aug 28, 2014. 09:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Important Events In Front Of Reading International Q2 Report [View article]
    While Cotter Sr. had already slowed the pace of raw land acquisition down and boosted development of existing parcels into cash flow and sale monetizations, the kids aren’t dad and they know it. I think the kids eye will be on developing and monetizing undeveloped real estate vs more land acquisition. Furthermore, IMO cinema 123 has an increased probability of being a JV or complete sale to enable direct development of Union Square.
    Aug 28, 2014. 02:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tuesday: A Good Day to Short the Cinema [View article]
    Reading International (NASDAQ:RDI) appears to me to be best risk reward in the industry. Here are some articles http://bit.ly/xhUDRE

    Most conservative balance sheet (Net of RDI's recent sale of two non-cash flowing development parcels, RDI's balance sheet is even stronger), substantial owned rather than leased real estate, far lower adjusted EV/EBITDA multiple and huge embedded unrealized gain and real estate development upside in several Reading parcels, particularly NY City.
    Aug 27, 2014. 06:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cinemark: Still The Best Bet In Movie Theatres? [View article]
    Don't disagree with the factors you cite favoring internationally diversified exhibitors vs US-only ones. In fact, I think there additional benefits that you did not mention.

    However, with your observation that Cinemark is a total return opportunity of 10% for the next 12 months, Reading International (NASDAQ:RDI) appears to me to be much better risk reward. Here are some articles http://bit.ly/xhUDRE

    Similarly solid balance sheet (Net of RDI's recent sale of two non-cash flowing development parcels, RDI's balance sheet is even stronger), substantial owned rather than leased real estate, far lower adjusted EV/EBITDA multiple and huge embedded unrealized gain and real estate development upside in several Reading parcels, particularly NY City.
    Aug 27, 2014. 09:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Important Events In Front Of Reading International Q2 Report [View article]
    revaluation process from Burwood being a sold just being discovered in the 6/30 balance sheet. What was strong just became much stronger.
    Aug 20, 2014. 12:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Important Events In Front Of Reading International Q2 Report [View article]
    thanks - appreciate the feedback and sharing/tweeting, etc the articles
    Aug 15, 2014. 08:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Important Events In Front Of Reading International Q2 Report [View article]
    Reading International just made the surprise announcement that Chairman and CEO James J. Cotter, Sr. has resigned immediately due to health reasons.

    Mr. Cotter’s children, who have been involved in Reading’s businesses, have been elected to lead the company.  

    Reading’s CFO, Andrzej Matyczynski, has also agreed to extend his current September 1, 2014 retirement date for three months, until December 1, 2014.

    The company’s 10-Q, which provides substantial detail on Reading’s assets and business operations, should be filed in the next few days

    Reading International Announces 2nd Quarter 2014 Results
    Resignation of James J. Cotter, Sr. as Chairman and CEO, and the Election of His Successors
    http://bit.ly/1kPjyVM
    Aug 8, 2014. 05:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Important Events In Front Of Reading International Q2 Report [View article]
    PICO has owned their Class B forever and accumulated over time. Mark Cuban bought pieces in the open market including my former 13D position, which I sold to him for a huge premium to the greater # of RDI shares I bought with the proceeds.
    Aug 7, 2014. 03:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Important Events In Front Of Reading International Q2 Report [View article]
    DCX - Thanks for your comments. There are mixed views as to the reason for a trading discount. Some believe Cotter never will sell his undeveloped property and wants to develop it all, sometimes to the detriment of IRR. Few have the belief that he makes investments that lose money.
    Reading did NOT lose money on Burwood as I will highlight below.

    First, as to the value estimates. I was at the annual meeting where he opined the parcel was worth $75MM. This was a reasonable number in light of the appraisals he had in hand from RDI's initial attempt sell 40 of Burwood's 51-acres (residences and comm'l/residential tower) and imputing appraised values to the portion he planned for RDI to keep and develop into an entertainment-themed retail center (ETRC) with a large Reading Cinema multiplex as the anchor. The AUD is about 15% lower vs US$ than at the time of these estimates. So adjusted for the currency move, Cotter was slightly high ($64MM) and I was right in the range ($51MM-$76MM). As for the deferred date for the receipt of the money. The Burwood site is a former rock quarry and there has always been an soil environmental remediation contingent liability to deal with. Reading has annual cash outlays towards removing bad soil, accumulating clean dirt and would have increased outlays to fill in the pit properly. See the press release with the deal's details at http://bit.ly/1oJlbSa

    Australand's quick close, in a matter of weeks, transferred RDI's increasing cash outflow remediation obligations from Reading immediately. That "savings" got negotiated in the price and the deal's installment payment terms.

    Also note, that 2017 is the back-end date for final payment. RDI is to be paid 90% of whatever Australand pro-rata develops and sells prior to that date. From this article http://bit.ly/1s87UVz it appears that Australand will likely be building and selling new homes or other portions of the parcel in 2016 or early 2017. They would also have to pay RDI should they sell or JV part of the parcel rather than directly develop it.

    RDI's book value already included AUS$23.3MM of non-cash mark-up on the parcel reflecting non-cash step-up in basis in connection with the 2001 TAXABLE merger of Reading Entertainment, Craig Corp and Citadel Holdings that created Reading International plus IMPUTED capitalized interest expense during Reading's development of the parcel. There has never been any debt encumbering the Burwood parcel and thus no direct interest expense outlays. Yes money is fungible so there is an 'opportunity cost' on the long period Reading held it. This impacts IRR, but RDI's cash outlay on the investment was approximately $27MM.

    I have written extensively on RDI's NYC properties and the rejection of the $100MM bid for Cinema 123 and Union Sq. See http://seekingalpha.co... specifically and http://bit.ly/xhUDRE generally. IMO the cost to develop these properties into higher value and the SUBSTANTIALLY higher value to be achieved as developed justified rejecting Capstone's low-ball highly conditional bid.

    Cotter has always stated and proved disciplined to comm'l/retail development competence I think the company has - he doesn't directly develop residential and has and will continue to sell or JV residential development. If cinema 123's eventual development plan falls outside Reading competency, RDI will sell or JV it. Union Square will be in RDI's competency and be directly developed. As for Coachella Valley - always will be residential developed and sold by RDI. I have been critical of the distraction but the price was a pure steal and RDI will make a great IRR on this VERY small investment.

    Hope this helps.
    Aug 7, 2014. 12:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Important Events In Front Of Reading International Q2 Report [View article]
    Thank you very much for appreciating the work I put into providing all those links and support information. That part and formatting seems to take as long as writing the text. One main reason I don't publish SeekingAlpha Pro, which puts archives back behind the 'pay-wall' after 30 days, is to be able to link to prior articles and save on repeating past detail. Though for many readers who don't click through the links, they miss out on the extra detail. Probably why RDI still suffers a wider-than-deserved discount.
    Aug 6, 2014. 10:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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