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Andrew Shapiro  

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  • Real Industry: A Little Known Investment Firm Riding Aluminum's Coattails Higher [View article]
    Nice article. I am also impressed by management's approach to investor relations
    Jul 7, 2015. 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMC Entertainment: Undervalued On Overblown Concerns [View article]
    Sorry I don't agree with your assessment that AMC is undervalued.

    1) When I refer to under-valued and over-valued I don't mean on an absolute basis as all theater exhibitors have cheap multiples vs. many industries and stocks perceived to have higher growth profiles. However, within the publicly traded exhibitors AMC is not cheap. Reading Int'l (RDI) and Marcus (MCS) are cheap. Its no coincidence that they both have hard real estate asset ownership far greater than the AMC exhibitors who have enormous non-owned lease liabilities. (Disclosure : As theater exhibition industry's fortunes go with the quality of film product, I am short many of these names in the sector as a hedge to my very large long on RDI ( http://bit.ly/xhUDRE) . All these exhibitors use the same "raw material", as Reading, but RDI, having no sell-side analysts whatsoever, owning substantial real estate that is being converted to highest alternative use as well as foreign diversification both going unvalued public investors, is far lower (adjusted for Real estate) EV/EBITDA multiple than any of these other companies, even including MCS.

    2) AMC's multiple may be smaller than its two other large "partners in crime" but that is a function of both those companies having stronger dividend support to their also industry over-valued shares.

    3) Sorry to burst your bubble but the clearance practices that you think AMC is wrongly accused of most definitely take place. See one of my earliest articles, entitled "Small Cinema's Antitrust Win: Big Implications For Large Exhibitor Chains" http://seekingalpha.co... on a case that has wound through the courts for many many years and is still live.

    Regardless how this case turns out (it also utilizes some unique California law) The anti-trust issue is will this current regulatory enforcement regime choose to interpret the law to scale back the clearance practice. If they do it will be bad for all of AMC, RGC and CNK (and possibly 4th largest CKEC) and good for 11th largest RDI and maybe 5th largest MCS. The advantage will be to be a chain large enough for substantial economies of scale, but not so large as to be exerting market power to put the little guys out of business as the big 3 have been aggressive at doing.
    Jul 2, 2015. 10:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In A Year Of Major Events For Reading International, Wanda's Purchase Of Hoyts Turns Our Head [View article]
    Vending machines outside of supermarkets renting DVD’s at a discount price is dying business, especially with streaming and download sales. Present value of future cash flows to Hoyts. If I recall, Reading was a bidder for Val Morgan 5-8 years ago and it was a small business with not too much cash flow. So IMO both these businesses portion of $800MM transaction value is deminimus.

    Overall conclusion of my article outlining substantial and increased value from Cinema cash flow that is growing, enhanced NY real estate values and favorable landmark approval to expand developable sq ft at Union Square and a valid comp (and possible highly synergistic acquirer) for RDI's Aus/NZ cinema segment still holds enough water that $14/share price for RDI bargain.
    Jul 2, 2015. 01:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In A Year Of Major Events For Reading International, Wanda's Purchase Of Hoyts Turns Our Head [View article]
    While the CEO might want to increase the empire, if the kids are not interested in bulking up on non-cash flow producing raw land like Sr., we need not worry about that risk.

    On the other hand, an outsider as CEO would be optimal for all concerned. He/she is most likely to be compensated and incentivized in a manner more aligned with shareholder's interests than the family was/is. Similarly, he/she would pursue closing the valuation gap more than past history too. At least that is what I would want and do as CEO.

    Agree, no likely sale in the near term, though the prospect of that has greatly increased due to the estate fight. Whichever sibling is outside of the power sphere, is more aligned with us shareholders.
    Jun 29, 2015. 10:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In A Year Of Major Events For Reading International, Wanda's Purchase Of Hoyts Turns Our Head [View article]
    True. But I note Wanda's history of paying big multiples for a large share platform and that Hoyt's size is the biggest they could get with antitrust authorities still allowing them to buy the next biggest market share player - Reading. There was a distinct possibility of these two platforms merging when Hoyt's was privately held by LBO firm PEP and was having troubles going public due to its "small" size.

    Until this time, for many valuing the parts of RDI was too onerous, especially i Aus/NZ with a US based company and stock. So much undeveloped non cash-flowing real estate, no comp for Aus/NZ cinema segment. Now, many of the real estate parcels down under have been or are being turned into cash. No better comp for cinema segment there. Also other big undeveloped real estate development here also being moved forward.

    Also I included links to two other "parts worth more than the whole" analysis done before Wanda purchase multiple.

    Take any haircut you want for Wanda's purchase. At present RDI prices, conclusion still stands.
    Jun 29, 2015. 09:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Willbros Group - Opportunity Strikes In This Beaten-Down $2 Oil Stock [View article]
    BTW this dumping by index funds is mandated and emotionless. It will take place no matter the stock price nor any fundamental positive or negative news. Russell Recon has always served as a great entry and exit window for fundamental research active investors like ourselves.
    Jun 25, 2015. 09:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Willbros Group - Opportunity Strikes In This Beaten-Down $2 Oil Stock [View article]
    I don't know why anyone gives credence to the self-serving red herring argument entrenched managements and boards constantly claim that activist investors are short-term and move in/out of their investments (even if we could).

    We just had an outstanding victory in a huge vote (despite 30% of WG shares held by related parties KKR and Tenaska) to recommend de-staggering WG's board.

    Perhaps its not common knowledge but WG is getting dropped from Russell 3000 and its sub segment russell 2000 index. Funds have to dump on or around this friday's index reconstitution date.
    Jun 24, 2015. 05:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Willbros Group - Opportunity Strikes In This Beaten-Down $2 Oil Stock [View article]
    No disclosure on the sale price of these two smaller units of the segment. The rest of the segment's sale is still TBD. Note there was some disclosure at the last conference call and earnings announcement of what remained of the professional services segment after the sale of some larger units a few months ago.
    Jun 15, 2015. 12:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Willbros Group - Opportunity Strikes In This Beaten-Down $2 Oil Stock [View article]
    What we eventually receive in value for this company is completely mutually exclusive of what we may have paid for it.
    May 22, 2015. 01:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Small Cinema's Antitrust Win: Big Implications For Large Exhibitor Chains [View article]
    So the case in my old article above was a Cal Appellate decision that sent disposition back to the trial court. I would have thought the matter would be done by now but I revisited in light of the new compelling suit against AMC in Texas. The wheels of justice are indeed slow. I am trying to pin someone down to discuss status and remaining issues.
    May 7, 2015. 03:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Small Cinema's Antitrust Win: Big Implications For Large Exhibitor Chains [View article]
    $RGC $AMC $CNK $CKEC Clearances going away? - DOJ probes major theater chains over antitrust claims http://bit.ly/1Ps17iW

    Elimination of clearances would be good for mid-size exhibitors like $RDI $MCS
    May 7, 2015. 01:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: The Situation Worsens [View article]
    Doesn't anyone read threads correctly here? Upatnite, I made the same point as you. And that point was in response to my questioning the author who contended in the article that additional debt would be issued, increasing interest expense and lowering profits further.
    Apr 29, 2015. 04:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: The Situation Worsens [View article]
    You miss the point to which I was responding. It was asserted that debt would be issued because to issue new shares would cause the stock price of AMZN to drop.
    Apr 28, 2015. 05:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taser, Digital Ally rally following Baltimore riots [View news story]
    What is being missed is all the pepper spray and tear gas being CONSUMED both on the protest/riot lines and in increased police training. $MACE Mace Security International remains totally under investors radar vs. $TASR and $DGLY which makes one-time sale of a camera.
    Apr 28, 2015. 05:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: The Situation Worsens [View article]
    AMZN shares are at risk of falling any given day. To issue stock at these levels is far far lower cost of capital than to issue more debt that would further increase losses. These same very losses you separately argue that should take the shares down on their own.
    Apr 28, 2015. 04:03 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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