Andy Abraham

Contemplating the Deepest, Most Synchronized Recession of Our Lives

Very thought out... interesting... thanks for updating us..


On Apr 03 03:07 AM perceptions_now wrote:

> It still surprises me that there is little comment on why this is
> so Synchronized and so deep.
>
> Think about it, there have been many Recessions, but usually some
> nations are down, whilst others are up?
>
> Why is it so, I hear asked?
>
> There are 3 major factors, if I can start in reverse -
> 3) Climate Change.
> 2) Peak Oil.
> 1) Demographics.
>
> With Climate Change & Peak Oil, being largely caused and re-inforced
> by Demographics.
>
> All three of these factors have come together, around the same time
> (2005-2007) and the result is a Perfect Global Economic Storm.<br/>
>
> Whilst the worst effects of Climate Change &amp; Peak Oil, may not
> be apparent for some time yet, the lead time required to change some
> of those worst effects requires the urgency for change starts now.
>
>
> However, the Demographic issues have already impacted, stating around
> 2005, the Baby Boomer Bust started as the usual end of business cycle
> Bust got underway.
>
> The Baby Boomer retirement cycle was always going to result in a
> Synchronized Global Bust.
>
> As the bulk of the huge Baby boomer Generation, which dates back
> to the midst of the Great Depression, finished their Peak Earning
> &amp; Spending years, they started into their thrift years around
> 2005.
>
> About the same time, Greed assumed that the status quo would continue,
> as housing &amp; real estate values would continue.
>
> The start of the Baby Boomer change, from Spending to Thrift, stopped
> Greed in its tracks.
>
> The Baby Boomer generation started the great economic expansion from
> 1945-2005, with higher birth rates and dramatic population increases.
>
>
> Over the next 20-30 years, an economic reversal will follow, with
> the dramatically lower birth rate in generations X &amp; Y, plus
> the retirement &amp; eventual passing of some 2 Billion Boomer era
> people.
>
> In short, the massive DEMAND that led to the 1945-2005 BOOM, is dissipating
> and the ECONOMY will find a New &amp; Lower level.
>
> Longer term imperatives involving Climate Change &amp; Peak Oil,
> will ensure that another Baby Boom will not happen.
>
> So, even with all the Effort &amp; Good will put into the Economic
> Stimuli's in the US and around the world, GROWTH WILL NOT RETURN,
> to what it has been.
>
> Regrettably, there will be many who will be badly affected, but I
> think it would be better to allow those new levels to be found quickly,
> rather than drawing out the process.
>
> And then, those affected, could assisted back on their feet, with
> the real money that would otherwise have disappeared into bottomless
> blackholes, without being of any use!