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Andy Abraham

 
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  • Greece and Japan in Focus [View article]
    t is very scary when govts can default on their debt. People defaulted but govts...very scary
    by the way there is a site where you can actually win prizes for your opinions
    opinion.ezwingame.com
    Apr 30, 2010. 10:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Did Natural Gas Spike? [View article]
    When do you know where there is an imbalance... over bought..over sold... What about imbalances in stocks such as GE..Citi...or Bank of America last year... they were cheap and cheap got cheaper...the way I have made money over the years is a plan that includes what to buy or sell...how much of it...and when to exit with either a profit or loss...this is what systematic trend following is... The idea is last year...Abraham trading..( not me..but I am an investor...was up double digits...and T Boone Pickens basically imploded... Abraham trading is a trend follower... no opinions... will equally go long or short... and he is a systematic trader...


    On Oct 05 11:40 AM Elliott wrote:

    > No big mystery. We've seen this movie many times before in stocks
    > and futures markets -- there was an imbalance of way too many traders
    > on the short side playing the "obvious" UNG monthly rollover. When
    > there's an imbalance all it takes is for a few bulls to light the
    > kindling, then shorts buy to cover, the fire gets bigger, setting
    > off more stop losses on the way up. The market never tolerates an
    > imbalance and always finds a way to restore equilibrium.
    Oct 6, 2009. 05:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Did Natural Gas Spike? [View article]
    It is very easy to look at Warren Buffet overtime and think one should have invested with him... However there have been severe bumps ( 50% draw downs ) along the way..More so... his teacher Ben Graham blew up in the Great Depression.. I do not know many Commodity trading advisors that have a thought out money management plan...and risk plan that have 50% draw downs.. ( however anything can happen).. The fact is one needs a plan...one needs risk and money management plans... Fundamental analysis.. does not tell me how many contracts or shares to buy... where the trade does not work... and it would be prudent to exit...


    On Oct 05 09:27 AM coastside wrote:

    > >> Trend followers have a plan and follow it with discipline.
    >
    > So you're saying fundamentalists don't have a plan and don't follow
    > it with discipline? I would say Warren Buffett has a plan and he
    > follows it with more discipline than anyone on the market.
    >
    > Natural gas went up because fundamentalists know that the rig count
    > is hovering near its lows. Trend followers reacted when reports
    > that gas storage was almost at capacity - and when the prices started
    > going down they all jumped on board. The fundamentalists know that
    > lower production will eventually cause a rapid drain down during
    > the winter. And they will patiently wait for it.
    Oct 6, 2009. 05:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Who Else Has Been Buying Gold? [View article]
    You are 100% right. The move started years ago... it all depends on your timing..I honestly do not know any trend followers who have been long since the early 2000 periods...but when there is a price breakout... trend followers take their shots...all the best
    Andy


    On Sep 14 08:43 AM doubleguns wrote:

    > The hedge funds and Einhorn are late to the game and are trying to
    > catch up. Where were they 8 years ago. I appreciate them finally
    > getting to the game but remember.......
    >
    > They are tail end charlies. They have missed 100's of % in this ongoing
    > move. A push to $2000 will only get them a double.
    Sep 15, 2009. 05:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What to Expect When You're Expecting Inflation [View article]
    No opinions... I have yet to meet anyone who can predict the future..look at Michael Covel's books... Trend following.. good stuff..

    Easiest thing to do... but the hardest emotionally...
    Apr 6, 2009. 06:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What to Expect When You're Expecting Inflation [View article]
    IF or when the US dollar devalues... Commodities will move up as they are priced in US dollars... the same potential scenario as what occurred in the Great Depression could repeat itself... the key is not demand..but rather the dollar..commodities are a dollar hedge.
    Apr 5, 2009. 03:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did the ECB Save COMEX from Gold Default? [View article]
    Fantastic post.. this is what is great about SeekingAlpha.com

    Apr 3, 2009. 06:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Contemplating the Deepest, Most Synchronized Recession of Our Lives [View article]
    Very thought out... interesting... thanks for updating us..


    On Apr 03 03:07 AM perceptions_now wrote:

    > It still surprises me that there is little comment on why this is
    > so Synchronized and so deep.
    >
    > Think about it, there have been many Recessions, but usually some
    > nations are down, whilst others are up?
    >
    > Why is it so, I hear asked?
    >
    > There are 3 major factors, if I can start in reverse -
    > 3) Climate Change.
    > 2) Peak Oil.
    > 1) Demographics.
    >
    > With Climate Change & Peak Oil, being largely caused and re-inforced
    > by Demographics.
    >
    > All three of these factors have come together, around the same time
    > (2005-2007) and the result is a Perfect Global Economic Storm.<br/>
    >
    > Whilst the worst effects of Climate Change &amp; Peak Oil, may not
    > be apparent for some time yet, the lead time required to change some
    > of those worst effects requires the urgency for change starts now.
    >
    >
    > However, the Demographic issues have already impacted, stating around
    > 2005, the Baby Boomer Bust started as the usual end of business cycle
    > Bust got underway.
    >
    > The Baby Boomer retirement cycle was always going to result in a
    > Synchronized Global Bust.
    >
    > As the bulk of the huge Baby boomer Generation, which dates back
    > to the midst of the Great Depression, finished their Peak Earning
    > &amp; Spending years, they started into their thrift years around
    > 2005.
    >
    > About the same time, Greed assumed that the status quo would continue,
    > as housing &amp; real estate values would continue.
    >
    > The start of the Baby Boomer change, from Spending to Thrift, stopped
    > Greed in its tracks.
    >
    > The Baby Boomer generation started the great economic expansion from
    > 1945-2005, with higher birth rates and dramatic population increases.
    >
    >
    > Over the next 20-30 years, an economic reversal will follow, with
    > the dramatically lower birth rate in generations X &amp; Y, plus
    > the retirement &amp; eventual passing of some 2 Billion Boomer era
    > people.
    >
    > In short, the massive DEMAND that led to the 1945-2005 BOOM, is dissipating
    > and the ECONOMY will find a New &amp; Lower level.
    >
    > Longer term imperatives involving Climate Change &amp; Peak Oil,
    > will ensure that another Baby Boom will not happen.
    >
    > So, even with all the Effort &amp; Good will put into the Economic
    > Stimuli's in the US and around the world, GROWTH WILL NOT RETURN,
    > to what it has been.
    >
    > Regrettably, there will be many who will be badly affected, but I
    > think it would be better to allow those new levels to be found quickly,
    > rather than drawing out the process.
    >
    > And then, those affected, could assisted back on their feet, with
    > the real money that would otherwise have disappeared into bottomless
    > blackholes, without being of any use!
    Apr 3, 2009. 06:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bear Market Over? Not So Fast [View article]
    How about...lets not predict... but look on rate of change basis or relative strength.. buy strength ...sell weakness ..but only with low risk trades...


    On Apr 03 02:53 AM Eric in IL wrote:

    > Let's face it, this is all a big house of cards. Don't get me wrong,
    > I'm a bull, not a bear. At some point it makes no sense to put value
    > on anything that you can't eat, wear, or live in. What makes gold
    > have value? Nothing, other than your own belief. What makes paper
    > currency have value? Nothing, other than your belief in a government.
    > Who is going to pay you if you buy puts on the Dow and it goes to
    > Zero? No one, because if the Dow goes to zero, then we return to
    > hunting and gathering. I mean, when you step back and really think
    > about making a living on the stock market, it is really funny. Your
    > only value is that you contribute to the function of a big confidence
    > game.
    > Now seriously, I think Roubini and Taleb have had their day in the
    > sun. I do not intend to chase them down the black hole. Although,
    > I would argue that Taleb's black swan now should be Dow 14000, because
    > it is the exact opposite of where we are right now. And I think
    > he would agree.
    > And as I have said a lot on this site, buy Platinum instead of Gold.
    > Platinum will outperform Gold this year.
    Apr 3, 2009. 05:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Contemplating the Deepest, Most Synchronized Recession of Our Lives [View article]
    And I thought I was somewhat pessimistic.. Hopefully at the G20 they will fix it... doubt it.


    On Apr 02 11:16 AM fireball wrote:

    > i have not seen anything that makes me want to be an invester again.
    > trading is working.
    > i see lots of confirmations that savings should be in gold and silver.
    >
    > i see indicaters that one should prepare to be self sufficient for
    > an extended period if the need arises.
    > govt. broke it. they won't fix it.
    Apr 2, 2009. 11:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Contemplating the Deepest, Most Synchronized Recession of Our Lives [View article]
    Thank you for qualifying the exact.. NBER is a great tool... I am very happy you brought that out... all the best


    On Apr 02 05:34 AM ciel wrote:

    > Just caught a few tiny errors in your #7 worth mentioning:
    >
    > 7. The U.S. has been in an official recession 17 months which is
    > one of the longest since the Great Depression of 1929.
    >
    > So far, the U.S. has only been in official recession for 16 months.
    > We have just entered our 17th, but have not yet been in it for a
    > full 17 (That will presumably come to be on May 1st)
    >
    > The other part of #7 has to do with the comment: "which is one of
    > the longest since the Great Depression of 1929"
    >
    > According to NBER, the official arbiter of recessions in the U.S.,
    > there has been no longer recession than 16 months since the Great
    > Depression's first recession (1929-1933). www.nber.org/cycles/cy...
    >
    >
    > Should NBER conclude the the current recession persisted until at
    > least the end of April, it would officially become the longest recession
    > since August 1929- March '33.
    Apr 2, 2009. 06:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Contemplating the Deepest, Most Synchronized Recession of Our Lives [View article]
    Too funny... great comment...


    On Apr 02 04:06 AM Roger Knights wrote:

    > "Who will be left to bailout the those who Bailout?"
    >
    > The bailiff?
    Apr 2, 2009. 06:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Will the G20 Summit Really Accomplish? [View article]
    Very well put... I especially like the line... it is not what they will solve... but what they will cause investors to be concerned about.
    Mar 30, 2009. 04:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is China Really Trying to Create a Global Currency? [View article]
    China needs to sell to their domestic economy...but before they can do that ...they need to enhance their middle class ...and take steps to eradicate poverty...


    On Mar 26 10:24 AM Tony Daltorio wrote:

    > I do agree with your comments about the gold standard. However, your
    > comments about China show the typical arrogance and ignorance of
    > Americans about the rest of the globe. China is rapidly moving away
    > from being an export economy. And it does matter what they think
    > because of the US need for "suckers" to buy our debt. If China even
    > slows down their purchases a bit, the Fed will have to print billions
    > more dollars to buy Treasuries and that will simply accelerate the
    > dollar's move into the history books. We should do all we can to
    > keep China happy, and not insult the biggest "investor" in the US.
    >
    Mar 26, 2009. 04:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Credit Card Crunch: Creating a New Generation of Subprime [View article]
    All of the dominoes will fall ...student loans.. commercial loans... credit cards... Just think of the implications of the implosion of credit in our daily life as you stated. Truly unbelievable times.
    Mar 26, 2009. 10:05 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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