Andy Abraham

Why Did Natural Gas Spike?

When do you know where there is an imbalance... over bought..over sold... What about imbalances in stocks such as GE..Citi...or Bank of America last year... they were cheap and cheap got cheaper...the way I have made money over the years is a plan that includes what to buy or sell...how much of it...and when to exit with either a profit or loss...this is what systematic trend following is... The idea is last year...Abraham trading..( not me..but I am an investor...was up double digits...and T Boone Pickens basically imploded... Abraham trading is a trend follower... no opinions... will equally go long or short... and he is a systematic trader...


On Oct 05 11:40 AM Elliott wrote:

> No big mystery. We've seen this movie many times before in stocks
> and futures markets -- there was an imbalance of way too many traders
> on the short side playing the "obvious" UNG monthly rollover. When
> there's an imbalance all it takes is for a few bulls to light the
> kindling, then shorts buy to cover, the fire gets bigger, setting
> off more stop losses on the way up. The market never tolerates an
> imbalance and always finds a way to restore equilibrium.

Why Did Natural Gas Spike?

It is very easy to look at Warren Buffet overtime and think one should have invested with him... However there have been severe bumps ( 50% draw downs ) along the way..More so... his teacher Ben Graham blew up in the Great Depression.. I do not know many Commodity trading advisors that have a thought out money management plan...and risk plan that have 50% draw downs.. ( however anything can happen).. The fact is one needs a plan...one needs risk and money management plans... Fundamental analysis.. does not tell me how many contracts or shares to buy... where the trade does not work... and it would be prudent to exit...


On Oct 05 09:27 AM coastside wrote:

> >> Trend followers have a plan and follow it with discipline.
>
> So you're saying fundamentalists don't have a plan and don't follow
> it with discipline? I would say Warren Buffett has a plan and he
> follows it with more discipline than anyone on the market.
>
> Natural gas went up because fundamentalists know that the rig count
> is hovering near its lows. Trend followers reacted when reports
> that gas storage was almost at capacity - and when the prices started
> going down they all jumped on board. The fundamentalists know that
> lower production will eventually cause a rapid drain down during
> the winter. And they will patiently wait for it.