Hi jse17, I appreciate the kind words and am glad you found the work interesting. For now I do run a blog off my business site where I post newsworthy material with brief comments. I've been on a sabbatical from writing recently due to some guest lecturing that I've been doing. I am pretty overloaded, but that will be ending soon and I do plan on coming up with something - if it is possible to do so.
I got an email from SA's head editor a few weeks ago, and if you believe her, then some people are making an awful lot of money writing articles for this site. I was also encouraged to submit my own exclusive work and the editorial team would let me know if anything needed to be altered to get it up to snuff for paid publication. So obviously, they've taken a free idea exchange site and turned it into something where ideas/opinions are managed.
That in and of itself is a real shame, but goes to show, many people will only stand on their convictions until it costs them to do so.
At any rate, enough rabbit trails. When/if I get something beyond my blog going, I'll be sure to post here. Thanks for writing! Andy
Another Consequence of Zero Interest Rates [View article]
Fabien is right; purchasing power is still shrinking. Stocknerd, I am not sure where you're getting your rationale from, but lowering rates has done almost NOTHING for the consumer - about 70% of the economy - save for lower mortgage rates, and even that hasn't stopped the continued drop in house prices. These 'lower rates' you speak of enabled mega banks to make large profits on the back of the middle class - AGAIN.
And by the way, the creation of that money IS inflation; it doesn't cause inflation. People are happy as long as inflation goes into stocks or house prices, but get anxious when it finds its way into finished goods prices, food, and gasoline. I think you've been watching a bit too much mainstream financial TV.
Unfortunately, a typo that slipped through my editor; should have been 2.8% rather than 28%. Thanks for pointing it out. Seeking Alpha doesn't fix that sort of thing, but I added it on my master copy.
Chris, I used those provisions (HR 3200) since they did an excellent job (in my opinion) of spelling out what is going on here and were much clearer than the Senate bill's counterparts. For example, with regards to who does the checking to make sure you have insurance, the House versions stated specifically the IRS, where as the Senate bill which passed on 12/24 of last year referenced an 'applicable individual', but later talks about how the penalty would be reported on an individual's tax return, so we can only presume that the 'applicable individual' is someone at the IRS or a designee. However, I should have done a better job of making that clear. Understand, I am not a political analyst, nor am I perfect. My only goal in writing the article was to talk about the likely impact of the legislation. ATT, Caterpillar, John Deere, Medtronic, and Valero Energy have already affirmed this by announcing huge charges as a result. It seems logical to assume that more job cuts will be the result since this is essentially an HR issue.
There are a couple of definitions of 'small business'. For this analysis I used the <1,500 criteria; (The SBA criteria is <500, which encompasses around 54% at latest glance). I chose to use 1,500 since, in my experience, these firms seem most likely to be on the bubble as far as being seriously impaired by the legislation.
The numbers certainly were not 'made up' as you allege. They came from the Census Bureau, but your point is well-taken in that the criteria could have been spelled out more clearly.
The intent was to keep the biases of the media in general at the forefront since many folks believe every word that comes out of the MSM. I will readily admit that I have a bias: the best interest of the American people. If my sarcasm towards a particular media establishment was taken as being supportive of another, that was not the intent at all.
European Debt Woes: America Take Heed [View article]
You're absolutely right; I've done a bunch of other articles on the 'padding' you mention, particularly the deflators used and the concept of counting govt. spending (which originates from debt here in the US) dollar for dollar with other unencumbered activity.
The bottom line here is that the real picture is quite a bit worse than the one stated by our government. But even the 'rosy' outlook it provides is horrendous compared to what is going on in Greece et al.
This High Yield Energy Stock Is Fund Manager Andy Sutton's Highest Conviction Pick [View article]
While I was looking at CO2 regulation in terms of emissions and the taxation thereof rather than CO2 as a commodity (which KMP transports), both you and the poster below you are right.
This High Yield Energy Stock Is Fund Manager Andy Sutton's Highest Conviction Pick [View article]
The forecast in a recent S&P Analyst's report was for an increase of $.05/quarter or from $4.20 to $4.40 for the year. $1.25 would be stellar and put the yield up considerably, which would alleviate a big concern about value at this point. AS
Do We Goldbugs Finally Have Your Attention? [View article]
Kitco esentially runs a paper game, yet their head analyst Nadler says coins are his favorite form of ownership.. Things that make you go "Hmmmmm"
-AS
On Nov 12 10:14 PM Gaucho wrote:
> Didn't you guys just love the way Kitco based the price of gold about > 2 weeks ago. It is astounding that the historically largest pumper > of gold would be its biggest basher. I smelled a rat and gold exploded. > They must have bet the wrong way and this subsequent rally cost them > a bundle. I have heard of gold sellers who are trying to manipulate > their clients away from taking possession of the actual metal. They > are in essence saying TRUST ME the gold is safer with us. One firm > after the client agreed to buy backed out after the client demanded > delivery claiming the delivery charges would be exorbitant. If this > rally holds a lot of firms are going to go under. Do not forget > the a German bank and an American bank recently had to rely on their > governments to bail them out after they could not deliver on their > short gold contracts.
I am not sure if this is intentional or not, but the early portion of the article creates the illusion that the Fed is somehow a government entity, which it clearly is not. What actually happens is the the US Treasury prints the money through the Mint, then carts it off to the Fed who in turn lends it back to the Treasury - at interest. The Digital Dollars are created at the Fed and then 'lent' to the Treasury and others - always at interest.
He nails the rest of it perfectly. The necessity of inflation for growth is a massive lie. My apologies to the author if I misunderstood his representation of the linkage between the USFed and the USGovt.
Stimulus Nation: What Are We Getting for Our $3.27 Trillion? [View article]
Very well said!
On Nov 02 07:58 AM User 353732 wrote:
> We got a lot, much more than we imagined we could get, from the Stimulus. > > 1. Enormous expansion in an arrogant and malicious Big Govt > 2. Vast misallocation of national resources from high valued to low, > no or negatively valued resources which has given us this new and > wondrous thing: a "V" economic recovery with no jobs, no income, > no credit and soon no homes for Main St > 3. Euphoria on Wall St, made tangible by those well deserved and > still inadequate bonuses > 4. The triumph of the WashDc-Wall St-MSM Troika over the Middle Class > and the Constitution > 5. Great expansion of the Parasitic Economy where entitlements, instant > gratification, unearned consumption and irredeemable debt are the > geometry of the New Economics > 6. Maniacal growth in public debt and a brilliant new insight that > debt is an asset and financial vapors are economic solids > 7. Demented increase in Fiat Dollars that encircle the world in a > web of deceit and delusion > 8. Impressive increase in unemployment and underemployment and record > Main St bankruptcies and a proclamation that in the New Economy these > things just don't matter > 9. The replacement of facts by Govt statistics as the new norms and > metrics of truth > 10. The end of America as a global hyperpower > >
Barron's argument loses a lot of credibility when they talk about the Fed's pledge to fight inflation. This is laughable. The Fed creates the inflation. Willingly and without pause; moral or otherwise.
There is an awful lot of talking going on right now with regards to oil and the Dollar. Neither is having much of an effect as of June. US demand has not decreased by even a significant amount, and if we were to see a crash in US demand, our problems would be much larger than oil.
The only problem I see with Valero's CEO assessment is that if he is right, then we should be seeing a glut in the producer areas since refineries aren't stockpiling. We aren't seeing that reported anywhere..
Count on an increase of shenanigans, but unfortunately, I'm dubious of a sustained decrease in prices.
Ceasing Alpha [View instapost]
I appreciate the kind words and am glad you found the work interesting. For now I do run a blog off my business site where I post newsworthy material with brief comments. I've been on a sabbatical from writing recently due to some guest lecturing that I've been doing. I am pretty overloaded, but that will be ending soon and I do plan on coming up with something - if it is possible to do so.
I got an email from SA's head editor a few weeks ago, and if you believe her, then some people are making an awful lot of money writing articles for this site. I was also encouraged to submit my own exclusive work and the editorial team would let me know if anything needed to be altered to get it up to snuff for paid publication. So obviously, they've taken a free idea exchange site and turned it into something where ideas/opinions are managed.
That in and of itself is a real shame, but goes to show, many people will only stand on their convictions until it costs them to do so.
At any rate, enough rabbit trails. When/if I get something beyond my blog going, I'll be sure to post here. Thanks for writing!
Andy
Another Consequence of Zero Interest Rates [View article]
And by the way, the creation of that money IS inflation; it doesn't cause inflation. People are happy as long as inflation goes into stocks or house prices, but get anxious when it finds its way into finished goods prices, food, and gasoline. I think you've been watching a bit too much mainstream financial TV.
The Manufacturing Myth [View article]
Healthcare's Imminent Double Dip [View article]
Healthcare's Imminent Double Dip [View article]
The numbers certainly were not 'made up' as you allege. They came from the Census Bureau, but your point is well-taken in that the criteria could have been spelled out more clearly.
America's 3-Ring Economic Circus [View article]
European Debt Woes: America Take Heed [View article]
The bottom line here is that the real picture is quite a bit worse than the one stated by our government. But even the 'rosy' outlook it provides is horrendous compared to what is going on in Greece et al.
This High Yield Energy Stock Is Fund Manager Andy Sutton's Highest Conviction Pick [View article]
This High Yield Energy Stock Is Fund Manager Andy Sutton's Highest Conviction Pick [View article]
Do We Goldbugs Finally Have Your Attention? [View article]
-AS
On Nov 12 10:14 PM Gaucho wrote:
> Didn't you guys just love the way Kitco based the price of gold about
> 2 weeks ago. It is astounding that the historically largest pumper
> of gold would be its biggest basher. I smelled a rat and gold exploded.
> They must have bet the wrong way and this subsequent rally cost them
> a bundle. I have heard of gold sellers who are trying to manipulate
> their clients away from taking possession of the actual metal. They
> are in essence saying TRUST ME the gold is safer with us. One firm
> after the client agreed to buy backed out after the client demanded
> delivery claiming the delivery charges would be exorbitant. If this
> rally holds a lot of firms are going to go under. Do not forget
> the a German bank and an American bank recently had to rely on their
> governments to bail them out after they could not deliver on their
> short gold contracts.
The Unsustainable Lie of Inflation [View article]
He nails the rest of it perfectly. The necessity of inflation for growth is a massive lie. My apologies to the author if I misunderstood his representation of the linkage between the USFed and the USGovt.
Stimulus Nation: What Are We Getting for Our $3.27 Trillion? [View article]
On Nov 02 07:58 AM User 353732 wrote:
> We got a lot, much more than we imagined we could get, from the Stimulus.
>
> 1. Enormous expansion in an arrogant and malicious Big Govt
> 2. Vast misallocation of national resources from high valued to low,
> no or negatively valued resources which has given us this new and
> wondrous thing: a "V" economic recovery with no jobs, no income,
> no credit and soon no homes for Main St
> 3. Euphoria on Wall St, made tangible by those well deserved and
> still inadequate bonuses
> 4. The triumph of the WashDc-Wall St-MSM Troika over the Middle Class
> and the Constitution
> 5. Great expansion of the Parasitic Economy where entitlements, instant
> gratification, unearned consumption and irredeemable debt are the
> geometry of the New Economics
> 6. Maniacal growth in public debt and a brilliant new insight that
> debt is an asset and financial vapors are economic solids
> 7. Demented increase in Fiat Dollars that encircle the world in a
> web of deceit and delusion
> 8. Impressive increase in unemployment and underemployment and record
> Main St bankruptcies and a proclamation that in the New Economy these
> things just don't matter
> 9. The replacement of facts by Govt statistics as the new norms and
> metrics of truth
> 10. The end of America as a global hyperpower
>
>
Barron's Banks on $100 Oil [View article]
There is an awful lot of talking going on right now with regards to oil and the Dollar. Neither is having much of an effect as of June. US demand has not decreased by even a significant amount, and if we were to see a crash in US demand, our problems would be much larger than oil.
The only problem I see with Valero's CEO assessment is that if he is right, then we should be seeing a glut in the producer areas since refineries aren't stockpiling. We aren't seeing that reported anywhere..
Count on an increase of shenanigans, but unfortunately, I'm dubious of a sustained decrease in prices.