How To Properly Use Apple's Guidance To Accurately Forecast Earnings [View article]
The only thing I can really say is that I think you should just stop reading what I write because you obviously don't know how to interpret the following sentence. And if that's the case, then there is really nothing else I can do for someone who simply cannot comprehend such a simple idea:
"It's important to understand that investors should view the Bullish Cross “official” outlook this quarter as being merely the lower boundary but we believe there is a MUCH HIGHER LIKELIHOOD that Apple will report in-line with our high-point forecast."
What can't you understand about "MUCH HIGHER LIKELIHOOD?" Do you simply not get it that we do have to give an official outlook that is purposefully conservative?
Are you really that obtuse? Really just stop reading my commentary. It really won't do you any good because you can't juggle very simple concepts that everyone seems to understand very well. So just move on. There are plenty of other good analysts to read and you simply can't read between the lines. So forget about it.
Our official outlook is not what we believe Apple will report, it is what we have to conservatively publish. Do you really believe that Gene Munster actually believes the forecast he has to publish?
Gene Munster knows that Apple is going to report $45 billion. He just has to give an estimate that is conservative because he has to do so given his position. His firm has to be conservative. So they give an estimate that is below their actual belief. That's why you will see him give an official estimate of 30 million iPhones on the one hand and then come out and say in public, "Hey Apple is going to sell 35 million iPhones by the way."
Only a moron doesn't understand what's going on there.
How To Properly Use Apple's Guidance To Accurately Forecast Earnings [View article]
I'm just saying. We clearly indicated that our lower boundary estimates were $42b $11.75 and that we felt it was "more likely" that Apple would report $45 and $12.80.
You come in here after a month just to post that we missed by 10%. I'm stating that only someone simple minded seeing things only from one side of the spectrum would make such a statement.
We put two numbers out not because we don't believe our own words, but because we have to both have to be conservative and realistic. Conservative demands we give our lower boundary estimate. Realistic demands that we say what we think is most likely. Just because you have significant difficultly understanding that, doesn't mean we missed by 10%.
How To Properly Use Apple's Guidance To Accurately Forecast Earnings [View article]
Did I miss revenue by 10%? I'm not sure how well you interpret things, but read the following which has been on the front page of Bullish Cross since December 16 and you tell me if I missed revenue by 10%:
http://bit.ly/wHYP9e "Now it is important to understand that investors should view the Bullish Cross “official” outlook this quarter as being merely the lower boundary of what one should reasonably expect Apple to report. While we think there’s a significant chance that Apple will end up reporting $11.75 in EPS on $42 billion in revenue, we still believe that there’s a much higher likelihood that Apple will report a quarter that is more in-line with the outlook presented by my colleague at Asymco, Horace Dediu. Horace Dediu is one of the best analysts out there, is one of the leading experts on the global smart-phnoe market, and is a testament to his Alma Mater, the Harvard Business School.
Dediu has put together an expectation that is very much in-line with the Bullish Cross “high-point” forecast for Apple. Our “high-point” forecast is an expectation we put out every quarter that takes into account the possibility that Apple could deliver a perfect quarter. Notice that Apple has delivered a report that was in-line or slightly above the Bullish Cross high-point estimate twice in the past two years. Once in fiscal Q2 2010 and again in fiscal Q3 2011. Both times it resulted in Apple gapping up uncontrollably after being unhalted in after-hours. The table below outlines the Bullish Cross High-Point Outlook:"
High Point Forecast: Revenue: $45.14 billion EPS: $12.90
There's a difference between setting expectations at the "lower boundary" and stating plain as day what we think is going to happen.
ONLY THE SIMPLE MINDED can't see what we're doing here.
Now it is important to understand that investors should view the Bullish Cross “official” outlook this quarter as being merely the lower boundary of what one should reasonably expect Apple to report. While we think there’s a significant chance that Apple will end up reporting $11.75 in EPS on $42 billion in revenue, we still believe that there’s a much higher likelihood that Apple will report a quarter that is more in-line with the outlook presented by my colleague at Asymco, Horace Dediu. Horace Dediu is one of the best analysts out there, is one of the leading experts on the global smart-phnoe market, and is a testament to his Alma Mater, the Harvard Business School.
Dediu has put together an expectation that is very much in-line with the Bullish Cross “high-point” forecast for Apple. Our “high-point” forecast is an expectation we put out every quarter that takes into account the possibility that Apple could deliver a perfect quarter. Notice that Apple has delivered a report that was in-line or slightly above the Bullish Cross high-point estimate twice in the past two years. Once in fiscal Q2 2010 and again in fiscal Q3 2011. Both times it resulted in Apple gapping up uncontrollably after being unhalted in after-hours. The table below outlines the Bullish Cross High-Point Outlook:
Our high-point outlook was $12.80 in EPS on $45.140 billion in revenue.
If Apple didn't miss last quarter, we would have published that as our official estimate. But we simply had to allow Apple to completely decimate for a quarter before we get aggressive again.
So on the one hand. Apple reported closer to what we actually believed they would report. But on the other hand, we had to "officially" hold an $11.75 EPS estimate. But most of our subscriber don't really believe that I actually believed that Apple would only report $11.75 in EPS. That was our lower boundary line.
So it was a highly political issue. We issued the lower boundary as our official estimate.
It kind of sucks because we get no glory or recognition because we basically had to do this as it was the responsible thing to do. We did a lot of hard work to come up with an estimate that we believe in and really couldn't publish it.
So I sort of have to play the whole "whisper numbers" thing that Wall Street analysts have to play and we will probably never give another real official estimate that will put us at #1 ever again.
We're just not in a position anymore that will allow us to just do that. We have to be ultra conservative.
But that doesn't mean we can't publish a "high-point" estimate that tells people, "ok look. Here's what we really believe."
That's why we said, "Now it is important to understand that investors should view the Bullish Cross “official” outlook this quarter as being merely the lower boundary of what one should reasonably expect Apple to report. While we think there’s a significant chance that Apple will end up reporting $11.75 in EPS on $42 billion in revenue, we still believe that there’s a much higher likelihood that Apple will report a quarter that is more in-line with the outlook presented by my colleague at Asymco, Horace Dediu."
By the way, Apple reported $660.0 in iPhone ASP. I know you had asked me about that. They reported pretty much a few dollars above our expectations on APS.
Stephen -- On November 28, 2011, you published an article entitled, "Apple May Have Scrapped Its Low-Ball Guidance Strategy." In this piece, you argue that $9.99 in EPS is the most likely target while giving a cop-out range of almost $3.00 saying that Apple will probably report $8.71 to $11.29.
Pretty pathetic. That's like saying, Apple will probably earn between $30 billion in revenue $50 billion in revenue. Great analysis. How useful.
Then after I pointed out why your analysis is pretty much worthless for the most obvious reasons, you come out and say with such confidence:
"Andy, Don't take this personally, but your going to miss earnings and revenue. Your namers are too high. Please do promise me this: When you do miss, stop crowing about yourself."
So after I show gaping holes in your analysis -- and they were pretty huge -- you decide to attack me personally.
So what are you going to do on Tuesday when Apple reports above your $3.00 range and nearly $2.00 above your EPS expectations. Are you still going to sit there and publish this drivel?
Will you at least own up to the fact that you got bitch-slapped? Or will you hide in a pool of your own cowardice?
After making a statement like that, I hope you man up and apologize. Mostly because while I've merely attacked your analysis, you've decided to attack me personally.
Apple Fiscal Q1 2012: The Biggest Earnings Blowout In History? [View article]
Kenneth explain to me how Apple is trading at around $400 a share right now when it was trading at $80.00 during the financial crisis. That's 5x higher than it was in 2009. The S&P 500 is barely up 100% during the same period.
Apple goes in phases of consolidation for 6-months ahead of another major leg up. We're nearing the end of that consolidation phase. I know precisely what I'm talking about. Apple's next leg is pretty imminent. Now if everyone wants to cling on to this very asinine notion that "they want to keep Apple down," then that's your bad. The fact of the matter is, Apple doesn't go straight up. I moves up in legs. The next leg will begin by January.
Apple Fiscal Q1 2012: The Biggest Earnings Blowout In History? [View article]
I'm still young so I "can be excused for not knowing how or why Wall Street truly works." That's funny. You obviously know very little about me. I would be truly impressed if you come here and apologize after Apple reports fiscal Q1.
Apple Fiscal Q1 2012: The Biggest Earnings Blowout In History? [View article]
Notice most of the comments here are rather bearish. My point exactly. People are going to get epically blindsided this quarter. Even when I publish the numbers, people still don't get it.
How To Properly Use Apple's Guidance To Accurately Forecast Earnings [View article]
"it can follow any rules it wants in providing guidance (though it will hurt itself in the financial community by doing so, as it's guidance will then be ignored)."
When I read stuff like this, it really makes me believe that I work in an industry full of people who know very little about what they do.
I guess you probably don't know much about Enron, Arthur Anderson, Worldcom and the resulting regulations on GAAP accounting.
This statement pretty much demonstrates that you don't know much of anything and yet you have "to read this closer" because YOU believe that YOU are in a position to be able to judge whether I've made a few major mistakes. Oh the irony.
How To Properly Use Apple's Guidance To Accurately Forecast Earnings [View article]
Oh god. Can you bring up one point at all about the analysis without attacking me personally? Of course not. You're just another coward that attacks people from behind a moniker.
Sorry. Saying that we were accurate doesn't equate to saying that we are better than everyone else. If you can't see the difference, then that's my not problem.
Not going to really get into this. The analysis is there. The evidence is there. If you want to look up my track record, it's also there in the public realm. A few searches and you will find it.
Notice I didn't say that I was better than everyone. You did. But if you're looking for accuracy level, Fortune keeps a running tab every single quarter. A very simple Google search would do you well.
Bullish Cross Initiates Fourth-Ever Buy Rating on Apple [View article]
Green Mountain Coffee: Is It Toxic Or Is It Phantom Inventory? [View article]
How To Properly Use Apple's Guidance To Accurately Forecast Earnings [View article]
"It's important to understand that investors should view the Bullish Cross “official” outlook this quarter as being merely the lower boundary but we believe there is a MUCH HIGHER LIKELIHOOD that Apple will report in-line with our high-point forecast."
What can't you understand about "MUCH HIGHER LIKELIHOOD?" Do you simply not get it that we do have to give an official outlook that is purposefully conservative?
Are you really that obtuse? Really just stop reading my commentary. It really won't do you any good because you can't juggle very simple concepts that everyone seems to understand very well. So just move on. There are plenty of other good analysts to read and you simply can't read between the lines. So forget about it.
Our official outlook is not what we believe Apple will report, it is what we have to conservatively publish. Do you really believe that Gene Munster actually believes the forecast he has to publish?
Gene Munster knows that Apple is going to report $45 billion. He just has to give an estimate that is conservative because he has to do so given his position. His firm has to be conservative. So they give an estimate that is below their actual belief. That's why you will see him give an official estimate of 30 million iPhones on the one hand and then come out and say in public, "Hey Apple is going to sell 35 million iPhones by the way."
Only a moron doesn't understand what's going on there.
How To Properly Use Apple's Guidance To Accurately Forecast Earnings [View article]
You come in here after a month just to post that we missed by 10%. I'm stating that only someone simple minded seeing things only from one side of the spectrum would make such a statement.
We put two numbers out not because we don't believe our own words, but because we have to both have to be conservative and realistic. Conservative demands we give our lower boundary estimate. Realistic demands that we say what we think is most likely. Just because you have significant difficultly understanding that, doesn't mean we missed by 10%.
That's your problem. I'm done dealing with you.
How To Properly Use Apple's Guidance To Accurately Forecast Earnings [View article]
http://bit.ly/wHYP9e
"Now it is important to understand that investors should view the Bullish Cross “official” outlook this quarter as being merely the lower boundary of what one should reasonably expect Apple to report. While we think there’s a significant chance that Apple will end up reporting $11.75 in EPS on $42 billion in revenue, we still believe that there’s a much higher likelihood that Apple will report a quarter that is more in-line with the outlook presented by my colleague at Asymco, Horace Dediu. Horace Dediu is one of the best analysts out there, is one of the leading experts on the global smart-phnoe market, and is a testament to his Alma Mater, the Harvard Business School.
Dediu has put together an expectation that is very much in-line with the Bullish Cross “high-point” forecast for Apple. Our “high-point” forecast is an expectation we put out every quarter that takes into account the possibility that Apple could deliver a perfect quarter. Notice that Apple has delivered a report that was in-line or slightly above the Bullish Cross high-point estimate twice in the past two years. Once in fiscal Q2 2010 and again in fiscal Q3 2011. Both times it resulted in Apple gapping up uncontrollably after being unhalted in after-hours. The table below outlines the Bullish Cross High-Point Outlook:"
High Point Forecast:
Revenue: $45.14 billion
EPS: $12.90
There's a difference between setting expectations at the "lower boundary" and stating plain as day what we think is going to happen.
ONLY THE SIMPLE MINDED can't see what we're doing here.
Some Context For Apple's Massive Numbers [View article]
Apple Fiscal Q1: The Biggest Blowout in History
http://bit.ly/wHYP9e
Now it is important to understand that investors should view the Bullish Cross “official” outlook this quarter as being merely the lower boundary of what one should reasonably expect Apple to report. While we think there’s a significant chance that Apple will end up reporting $11.75 in EPS on $42 billion in revenue, we still believe that there’s a much higher likelihood that Apple will report a quarter that is more in-line with the outlook presented by my colleague at Asymco, Horace Dediu. Horace Dediu is one of the best analysts out there, is one of the leading experts on the global smart-phnoe market, and is a testament to his Alma Mater, the Harvard Business School.
Dediu has put together an expectation that is very much in-line with the Bullish Cross “high-point” forecast for Apple. Our “high-point” forecast is an expectation we put out every quarter that takes into account the possibility that Apple could deliver a perfect quarter. Notice that Apple has delivered a report that was in-line or slightly above the Bullish Cross high-point estimate twice in the past two years. Once in fiscal Q2 2010 and again in fiscal Q3 2011. Both times it resulted in Apple gapping up uncontrollably after being unhalted in after-hours. The table below outlines the Bullish Cross High-Point Outlook:
Our high-point outlook was $12.80 in EPS on $45.140 billion in revenue.
If Apple didn't miss last quarter, we would have published that as our official estimate. But we simply had to allow Apple to completely decimate for a quarter before we get aggressive again.
So on the one hand. Apple reported closer to what we actually believed they would report. But on the other hand, we had to "officially" hold an $11.75 EPS estimate. But most of our subscriber don't really believe that I actually believed that Apple would only report $11.75 in EPS. That was our lower boundary line.
So it was a highly political issue. We issued the lower boundary as our official estimate.
It kind of sucks because we get no glory or recognition because we basically had to do this as it was the responsible thing to do. We did a lot of hard work to come up with an estimate that we believe in and really couldn't publish it.
So I sort of have to play the whole "whisper numbers" thing that Wall Street analysts have to play and we will probably never give another real official estimate that will put us at #1 ever again.
We're just not in a position anymore that will allow us to just do that. We have to be ultra conservative.
But that doesn't mean we can't publish a "high-point" estimate that tells people, "ok look. Here's what we really believe."
That's why we said, "Now it is important to understand that investors should view the Bullish Cross “official” outlook this quarter as being merely the lower boundary of what one should reasonably expect Apple to report. While we think there’s a significant chance that Apple will end up reporting $11.75 in EPS on $42 billion in revenue, we still believe that there’s a much higher likelihood that Apple will report a quarter that is more in-line with the outlook presented by my colleague at Asymco, Horace Dediu."
By the way, Apple reported $660.0 in iPhone ASP. I know you had asked me about that. They reported pretty much a few dollars above our expectations on APS.
Apple's Bullish Guidance [View article]
Pretty pathetic. That's like saying, Apple will probably earn between $30 billion in revenue $50 billion in revenue. Great analysis. How useful.
Then after I pointed out why your analysis is pretty much worthless for the most obvious reasons, you come out and say with such confidence:
"Andy, Don't take this personally, but your going to miss earnings and revenue. Your namers are too high. Please do promise me this: When you do miss, stop crowing about yourself."
So after I show gaping holes in your analysis -- and they were pretty huge -- you decide to attack me personally.
So what are you going to do on Tuesday when Apple reports above your $3.00 range and nearly $2.00 above your EPS expectations. Are you still going to sit there and publish this drivel?
Will you at least own up to the fact that you got bitch-slapped? Or will you hide in a pool of your own cowardice?
After making a statement like that, I hope you man up and apologize. Mostly because while I've merely attacked your analysis, you've decided to attack me personally.
Apple Fiscal Q1 2012: The Biggest Earnings Blowout In History? [View article]
Apple goes in phases of consolidation for 6-months ahead of another major leg up. We're nearing the end of that consolidation phase. I know precisely what I'm talking about. Apple's next leg is pretty imminent. Now if everyone wants to cling on to this very asinine notion that "they want to keep Apple down," then that's your bad. The fact of the matter is, Apple doesn't go straight up. I moves up in legs. The next leg will begin by January.
Apple Fiscal Q1 2012: The Biggest Earnings Blowout In History? [View article]
Apple Fiscal Q1 2012: The Biggest Earnings Blowout In History? [View article]
How To Properly Use Apple's Guidance To Accurately Forecast Earnings [View article]
When I read stuff like this, it really makes me believe that I work in an industry full of people who know very little about what they do.
I guess you probably don't know much about Enron, Arthur Anderson, Worldcom and the resulting regulations on GAAP accounting.
This statement pretty much demonstrates that you don't know much of anything and yet you have "to read this closer" because YOU believe that YOU are in a position to be able to judge whether I've made a few major mistakes. Oh the irony.
How To Properly Use Apple's Guidance To Accurately Forecast Earnings [View article]
How To Properly Use Apple's Guidance To Accurately Forecast Earnings [View article]
Apple's Bullish Guidance [View article]
Not going to really get into this. The analysis is there. The evidence is there. If you want to look up my track record, it's also there in the public realm. A few searches and you will find it.
Apple's Bullish Guidance [View article]
Notice I didn't say that I was better than everyone. You did. But if you're looking for accuracy level, Fortune keeps a running tab every single quarter. A very simple Google search would do you well.