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Andy Zaky

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  • Bullish Cross Initiates Fourth-Ever Buy Rating on Apple [View article]
    Notice the date of this article and the date that Apple bottomed. Now compare to what is posted here:

    bullishcross.com/2011/.../

    Perhaps in the future I could get a little trust? I have a significant number of subscribers that are up tremendously right now. Some are up nearly 100% based on this bottoming call.
    Jul 18 02:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish Cross Initiates Fourth-Ever Buy Rating on Apple [View article]
    Yeah this move wasn't an easy one to call either. Check this record here:

    bullishcross.com/categ.../

    Travis -- I also want to apologize for not getting back to you. I was totally slammed with work when I got your last e-mail. You know when you procrastinate in getting back to someone and then eventually it just takes to long. Yeah, that's basically what happened. I just kind of got overwhelmed with work. I get a few hundred comments and e-mails to go through every day.

    But I've been looking at your articles. You're doing a great job!
    Jul 15 08:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish Cross Initiates Fourth-Ever Buy Rating on Apple [View article]
    How's your mansion?
    Jul 15 07:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish Cross Initiates Fourth-Ever Buy Rating on Apple [View article]
    lol. What an imbalance of risk. Sigh. I wish I could holding everyone else responsible for my own decisions.
    Jun 20 11:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Priced for Significantly Slower Growth [View article]
    And let me just add, you sit there and talk about how you're some DCF god and how the cash flow model is the only true way to valuate a company, and then after all of that b.s. you come up with a model that is so far off base in being forecast anything worth a damn that you put Apple at $335 fair value?

    Are you completely out of your mind or only partially so? In the last two quarters alone, Apple increased its cash position by $14 billion ($8.7 billion in Q1 and $5.3 billion in Q2). It's probably going to add another $16 billion between fiscal Q3 and fiscal Q4. That's $30 billion on the year.

    Next year, it will probably add close to about $40 billion -- about $10 billion a quarter and end the year at $120 billion in cash and cash equivalents. Now we're in 2013, you think the company's growth is going to stall to 0.00%? Even if it did, it would end the 2013 fiscal year with $160 billion and end 2014 with $200. Fiscal 2015 with $240 billion. So despite the fact the company will almost certainly not have less than 80% of its entire market cap in cash -- $60 enterprise value -- within 3.5 years isn't worth more than $335 fair value ($305 billion market cap). If you consider moderate growth after 2013, it will have its full market cap in cash. That's nearly $300 billion. So the company should trade at a $0.00 enterprise value even though it's producing $50-$60 billion in net cash??

    What's next, your failure for a model said Apple's intrinsic value was $93 during the financial crisis? God this is so idiotic on so many levels.
    Jun 20 05:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Priced for Significantly Slower Growth [View article]
    Your model isn't anything that hasn't been used a hundred times before but your assumptions are very flawed. What good is it your to investors if you don't even understand the company you're valuating. When is the last time Apple merely met consensus?

    Do you have any idea what consensus estimates were for the 2011 fiscal year in August?

    $17.47 in EPS!!! Apple has already reported nearly $13.00 in two quarters and will probably finish the year with $27.50 in EPS. That's nearly 70% above the consensus and you're using the consensus? This isn't Microsoft where analysts tend to nail their numbers within a penny.

    If you want, I can help you run some more realistic numbers. It would be an enlightening experience for you. Your article as written, and the assumptions made isn't worthy for seeking alpha. I don't want the individual investor to buy into a model that forecasts $120 billion in revenue. What a joke.
    Jun 20 05:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish Cross Initiates Fourth-Ever Buy Rating on Apple [View article]
    "Another key component to this inverted head and shoulders is that Apple needs to firmly break above $355 a share - the neckline - on convincing and strong volume. A major break above $355 will lead to an immediate move to $400. I think the highs would easily be eclipsed and the stock will rally to $400 by July earnings.

    The next few sessions are very key for Apple. The WWDC is also very key. You don't want to see Apple sitting at technical resistance at the WWDC. That would pretty much put a nail in the coffin to this rally, which will likely end in failure unless Steve Jobs announces the iPhone 5 or iPhone 4S.

    So if Apple is trading near $355 and struggles to break above that mark on the day of the keynote and you see the stock start to fall back, that should raise major warning bells for an impending major sell-off. So far we're off to a great start, and I'll keep everyone updated as to Apple's trading progress as the week goes on. Suffice it to say, this is the start of really good things. This could very well be the beginning of the rally to $400 that everyone has been waiting for. Now if this does indeed happen, I also believe Apple will easily eclipse $450 by January. Again, that assumes we do in fact get this June-July rally. Stay tuned."

    Follow up to the article 5 days after it was published:

    "Every piece of news that is known is priced in. If we know x is going to be announced, then the announcement has -- for all intents and purposes -- been made. Think about it. If everyone knows that Apple is going to introduce iCloud, then everyone who bought in on the news has already bought in. Hence the saying, "buy the rumor, sell the news."

    Now, if Apple introduces something unexpected, then that announcement isn't already factored in because no one expected it. That is where this phenomenon comes from.

    In terms of Apple could still run to $400 before the end of July, that really depends largely on the market at this point. If the market goes into free-fall selling, then forget about it. Monday looked as promising as it gets for a rally and the market couldn't hold on to those gains.

    So we'll have to see whether this selling continues. I think that Apple is very likely to sell-off on this even now though. Here's why. The stock has held up nicely since last week. But that is largely because no one wants to sell going into a Steve Jobs lead event. However, once the event is over, if nothing unexpected comes out of it, I fear that Apple is due for some major selling pressure again. Back down to the $330 mark probably and even lower if the market start tumbling.

    Again, if Apple was going to break out on the event, it would be trading above it's resistance already. The fact that it's not trading above resistance suggests clearly that (a) the market is waiting to see if Apple does introduce something unexpected, and (b) if Apple doesnt' do so, then back down we go."

    That article was all about set-up, and less about the price forecast. Apple was in a good position to rally provided that it broke through resistance -- which it looked like it was going to do being up $11 in one day.

    And even if the article took a firm stance like I did in September, it's a ridiculous expectation to think someone is going to be right all of the time...

    Finally itt's not unreasonable to expect a breakout off of an $11 point up day.
    Jun 18 09:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish Cross Initiates Fourth-Ever Buy Rating on Apple [View article]
    So the $400 by July call was highly dependent on the behavior around the developers conference. We didn't have confirmation of a breakout like we did in September and I noted that in the article. The June iPhone call was not an easy one to make by any stretch. As for the "chest beating" there are reasons for this. Whenever I don't post my background in an article, I'm stuck having to answer several comments that pretty much end up demanding that I post my background. Yet, if I lay out my background in the article itself, then I have to deal with those who know my background and are sick of the "chest-beating." it's lose-lose and all I really want to say on the topic.
    Jun 18 04:41 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Valuation: The One Article Every Investor Should Read [View article]
    I can only tell you that I wouldn't be selling here if I were holding shares and I had a long-term horizon. Meaning, I don't need the capital anytime soon. If I had a 2-yaer horizon and I'm holding shares, I would just hold the shares for 2-years and sell them for a 50% gain. Now that's just me. That's what i would do. I don't know if this applies to you.
    Jun 17 04:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Valuation: The One Article Every Investor Should Read [View article]
    Bullish Cross Pro is live for anyone who's interested:

    bullishcross.com
    Jun 16 07:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Valuation: The One Article Every Investor Should Read [View article]
    Bullish Cross Pro is almost finished being developed. it will be launching sometime this week for those interested. It will be well worth it. The value created will be substantial. See here:

    bullcross.blogspot.com...
    Jun 13 06:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Proof That Analysts Can't Predict Apple [View article]
    Thanks guys. I'm flattered really. It's appreciated. I'll be launching Bullish Cross Pro this week for those who care for in-depth material.

    See here:

    bullcross.blogspot.com/
    Jun 13 05:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forecasting $590 per Share Price Target for Apple [View article]
    Great Article Robert! Glad to see you here at Seeking Alpha finally! Welcome! We've just added one more rational person to the crazy world.
    Jun 13 04:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Valuation: The One Article Every Investor Should Read [View article]
    Thanks. I understand the difference between possessive pronouns -- "its" is a possessive pronoun -- and the contraction. It's simply an error. My mind just wants to create a contraction where it's unnecessary. You can yell at my brain for being silly.
    Jun 10 06:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Valuation: The One Article Every Investor Should Read [View article]
    The market's pricing structure is very inefficient.
    Jun 9 02:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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