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Andy Zaky

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  • Apple's Valuation: The One Article Every Investor Should Read [View article]
    So the problem lies in the equivocal nature of the term "value." Value can be used in different senses and to refer to different time periods. So Apple being "undervalued" for so long is referring to it's relative pricing as compared to other stocks. But it doesn't refer to #1 and #2.

    1. Apple's present value as determined by supply and demand can't be over or undervalued relatively to it's present value. Present value is a perfect representation of what it should be worth today.

    2. Apple's present value as determined by supply and demand CAN be over or undervalued relative to it's FUTURE value.

    3. An equivocal definition of #1 and #2. Apple can be relatively underpriced i.e. undervalued relative to other stocks at PRESENT VALUE.

    So when i say things like, Apple is undervalued compared to Amazon and Netflix, that is a true statement unrelated to #1 and #2. What #3 demonstrates is that our idea of what is considered "undervalued" or "overvalued" is likely incorrect when trying to justify future value based on non-ubiquitous valuation metrics.

    Predicting future value -- not relative present value -- requires an understanding of how the market will likely price Apple in the future.

    "In turbulent, especially fearful times, I think that is a poor bet." What if Apple trades at cash value and is growing at 100% a year? Still a poor bet?

    Valuation plays a role in even really turbulent markets. It's a matter of knowing what type of a role it will play in those markets and how the stock will be valued in those markets.
    Jun 7 12:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zaky's 2011 iPhone Sales Estimates [View article]
    I think it's too difficult to extrapolate much from the 200 million iOS devices comment. Though I think you can draw pretty good conclusions as to the iPads from teh 25 million comment.
    Jun 7 11:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Valuation: The One Article Every Investor Should Read [View article]
    I write the following above:

    "I will be spending a considerable amount of analysis on projecting Apple's P/E ratio. I will also be providing an in-depth analysis on how to best capitalize on the obvious direction of Apple's stock price so as to maximize profits while reducing risk exposure to a negligible rate. Putting on spreads at the right times can lead to an eventual zero-sum risk exposure by reducing cost basis down to zero."

    Please notice I'll be picking up this topic in more detail at Bullish Cross Pro for those interested in the analysis:

    bullcross.blogspot.com...
    Jun 7 11:15 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple to $400 by July [View article]
    Every piece of news that is known is priced in. If we know x is going to be announced, then the announcement has -- for all intents and purposes -- been made. Think about it. If everyone knows that Apple is going to introduce iCloud, then everyone who bought in on the news has already bought in. Hence the saying, "buy the rumor, sell the news."

    Now, if Apple introduces something unexpected, then that announcement isn't already factored in because no one expected it. That is where this phenomenon comes from.

    In terms of Apple could still run to $400 before the end of July, that really depends largely on the market at this point. If the market goes into free-fall selling, then forget about it. Monday looked as promising as it gets for a rally and the market couldn't hold on to those gains.

    So we'll have to see whether this selling continues. I think that Apple is very likely to sell-off on this even now though. Here's why. The stock has held up nicely since last week. But that is largely because no one wants to sell going into a Steve Jobs lead event. However, once the event is over, if nothing unexpected comes out of it, I fear that Apple is due for some major selling pressure again. Back down to the $330 mark probably and even lower if the market start tumbling.

    Again, if Apple was going to break out on the event, it would be trading above it's resistance already. The fact that it's not trading above resistance suggests clearly that (a) the market is waiting to see if Apple does introduce something unexpected, and (b) if Apple doesnt' do so, then back down we go.
    Jun 5 06:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zaky: An Early Look at Apple's Fiscal Q3 Earnings [View article]
    RIMM has become nothing more than a buyout candidate. The entire market no longer believes in the story. It trades a 6 P/E ratio because there is no demand for shares of the company. I did advise people to get in last summer at $40.00 a share and told those people to sell at $60. Now the stock has become nothing more than a huge gamble on a potential buyout.
    Jun 4 04:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple to $400 by July [View article]
    @Mattlesnake -- I can't think of a more full of shit publication than Digitimes. Here's an example of a quote that demonstrates just how full of shit they really are:


    "In fact, Apple's actual shipments of iPhones have missed its internal estimates given to supply chain partners over the recent quarters. The gap between the estimated and actual iPhone shipments expanded to 39.4% in the first quarter of 2011 from 29.3% in fourth-quarter 2010, implying that demand had been overestimated.

    A total of 18.65 million iPhones were shipped in the first quarter compared to 16.24 million units in the fourth quarter of 2010. Both numbers came below Apple's targets of 21 million for the first quarter and 26 million for fourth-quarter 2010."

    If Apple had internal estimates, they would certainly never share them with their supply chain partners. And this so called "internal miss" is nowhere indicated in Apple's guidance. In fact, the beat on Apple's own guidance in fiscal Q1 and fiscal Q2 was actually much higher than normal. So if anything, iPhone sales have exceeded expectations. But yeah. I tend to ignore anything coming out of Digitimes because the publication has very little merit in my book.
    Jun 3 08:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zaky: Apple's P/E Ratio Falls to Lowest Level Since Financial Crisis Despite 92% Earnings Growth [View article]
    I'm going to be offering significantly more in-depth and actionable analysis with Bullish Cross Pro (currently in testing). I hope to bring significant returns to my readers. Please submit feedback here:

    bullcross.blogspot.com...
    Jun 2 01:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple to $400 by July [View article]
    Sure. By the way, if you like this analysis and want to see more in-depth research and ideas, you should send some feedback to this post here:

    bullcross.blogspot.com...
    Jun 2 01:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple to $400 by July [View article]
    Just an FYI. it's already not look very good for Apple. You can thank the market weakness for that. Bernanke sure fucked this up with no exit plan for QE2. Remember, if Apple doesn't surprise at the WWDC with something big, it's likely to result in a sell-off.

    Especially consider the fact the stock has been holding up really well in the face of the last two days of brutal selling. It's unfortunate that Apple is getting dragged around with the market's nonsense, but that's the game we play.

    Fundamentals do no matter within the context of market weakness. Nothings separates Apple from an overvalued, bubble and low growth stock in these environments. They're exactly the same. In fact, Apple is treated worse as it's seen as a big source of capital to meet any sort of cash requirement for funds. So it's the first to be sold.
    Jun 2 11:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Zaky: 2011-2012 Macintosh Sales Estimates [View article]
    Ok. So here's what I'm going to do. I've decided to start working on material that will actually make people money. I'm going to take this from the fundamental analysis to the how do we convert this into $$$$ analysis. See here:

    bullcross.blogspot.com...
    Jun 2 04:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zaky: An Early Look at Apple's Fiscal Q3 Earnings [View article]
    So I've decided I'm going to be providing significantly more actionable analysis. I'm going to take this to the level of making it profitable for people. You can read my ideas on this year. Really want the feedback:

    bullcross.blogspot.com...
    Jun 2 04:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple to Report an Unprecedented $2.5B Top-Line Beat in Fiscal Q3 [View article]
    So I'm going to be working on publishing more advanced and actionable analysis. I would love the feedback. See here:

    bullcross.blogspot.com...
    Jun 2 04:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple to Report an Unprecedented $2.5B Top-Line Beat in Fiscal Q3 [View article]
    Can't say. What I can tell you with much greater than 99.99995% certainty is that Apple will be trading far above (>20%) where it is trading at today in 18 months from now.
    Jun 1 06:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple to $400 by July [View article]
    Thanks. Missed the CNBC snippet. 4:50 EDT is in the middle of the night for me.
    Jun 1 02:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zaky: An Early Look at Apple's Fiscal Q3 Earnings [View article]
    lol. This statement is ironic for so many reasons. I've never seen so many errors in one sentence. Let me help you out.

    This GUY (not guys -- there's only one of me) does not seem to know what he is talking about [add period here before starting a new sentence. What you have above is what we call a run-on sentence.] The language and dictum used in the article is appalling. There's no "..." because it's a complete thought. So here is what I think you meant to say:

    "This guy does not seem to know he is talking about. The language and dictum used in the article is appalling."

    ---

    But not nearly as appalling as your inability to grasp basic rules of the english language. If my language and dictum is appalling, then your language and dictum is the worst thing to happen to any system of communication anywhere ever.
    Jun 1 01:00 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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