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Andy Zaky

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  • Apple to $400 by July [View article]
    Right now I'm in 2012 calls. But what I plan to do is sell slightly higher strikes against for a $0.00 cost basis. I'll then use that cash to buy 2013 calls on a pull-back. It's a constant effort. Too complicated to express in a comment.
    May 31 06:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple to $400 by July [View article]
    It's a very basic sell the news reflex. Something unexpected has to come out of the event, or there's a sell-off coming. I've laid it out in my response to "the Runs" question above.
    May 31 06:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple to $400 by July [View article]
    There really isn't much uncertainty here. It's a very straight-forward trade. It's as straight-forward as it gets. Apple will likely do some rallying this week ahead of the world-wide developers conference. What investors really want to see is out of control momentum where the stock breaks far above technical resistance way before the event. For example, it would be better for investors if Apple is trading well above $355 by Thursday. In fact, what you want to see is Apple make fresh all time highs before the keynote.

    Here's why. If Apple goes into the keynote bumping against resistance then the ONLY thing that will get Apple above that resistance is the iPhone. Everyone already expects iCloud and Lion. Those are expected. So those will be "buy the rumor, sell the news" events.

    However, and this is a big however. If Apple breaks far above resistance ahead of the event, then I think it's clear the market is ready to push Apple to $400 a share and the WWDC doesn't even really matter.

    But if the market doesn't push Apple above resistance, then it's clear participants are waiting to see if Jobs surprises with an iPhone update. If he doesn't, the stock will sell-off. No question about it.

    If he does introduce the iPhone, the stock will probably break resistance and rally straight to $400 by July conservative. I can see it at $400 before the close of June if things play out exactly like this. So again. Here are the hypotheticals:

    1. Apple is trading at new highs ahead of the WWDC. WWDC doesn't matter and Apple is off to the races.

    2. Apple doesn't break above $355 and is struggling with resistance ahead of the keynote. In this scenario, only the iPhone will take Apple above resistance.

    3. If #2 occurs, it's not entirely hopeless. If the market starts to rock and roll, the WWDC sell-off will be short-lived and Apple will probably breakout to new highs.

    Now I've laid out the 3 scenarios. Which of these 3 is most likely.

    I think it's actually #1. That Apple will breakout before Tuesday. Yet, if that doesn't happen, then investors should be aware of #2 and #3. Hence why I'll be updating.

    This is all very straightforward. Don't expect anything but the iPhone or some major surprise to move the stock on WWDC. If Apple only introduces what is already known, it's already reflected in the stock price.
    May 31 06:03 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zaky: 2011-2012 Macintosh Sales Estimates [View article]
    lol. Wait until the shit-storm of 2012-2013.
    May 31 03:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zaky: An Early Look at Apple's Fiscal Q3 Earnings [View article]
    Ok. So while the editors work on it. Here's a link directly to the image:

    That is an enlargement of the first table.
    May 31 02:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Zaky: An Early Look at Apple's Fiscal Q3 Earnings [View article]
    I sent the request to SA editors. But often times it can take a day or so to have that fixed. So I'll post a link to the enlarged image within hour. Kind of a pity given that this table is clearly the most important table in the article.
    May 31 01:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple to Report an Unprecedented $2.5B Top-Line Beat in Fiscal Q3 [View article]
    Well Apple's guidance suggests the contrary. I'm aware of the white iPhone's existence and Verizon's existence and India's existence and everything else in-between. A lot of people are expecting a sequential rise in iPhone sales. All of those people are going to be sorely disappointed.
    May 31 12:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple to Report an Unprecedented $2.5B Top-Line Beat in Fiscal Q3 [View article]
    Apple will post a seasonally higher iPad gross margin as a result of a much higher average selling price. But its the same thing every quarter. Someone always tries to call BS on 'x' or BS in 'y'. I've considered everything and more.
    May 31 12:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zaky: 2011-2012 Macintosh Sales Estimates [View article]
    At Navin007 -- No? Why would they better to sell now that they've depreciated so much? This was supposed to just be an illustration of how the "when" is just as important as the "why" when investing in leaps.

    At Advill -- There's far more to this than what I just explains. That's simply one aspect. There's a lot that goes into this.

    Being able to capitalize in a huge way on Apple requires an understanding of the macro view, market technicals, market internals, the currency trade, commodities, the carry trade, supply-demand and momentum. For example, after Apple took it's last beating all last summer as it traded sideways for nearly 7 months, I was able to call for an immediate move to $300 when Apple was trading in the $240's. A lot of that was based on understand the momentum side. See here:

    I called $300 by October and $350 by January. I'll do the same thing again but this time it will be for $400 and $450.
    May 31 12:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Future Depends on Leaping Hurdles, Not Earnings [View article]
    John -- you are very mislead if you actually believe that Apple's guidance is pointless. I can spend several pages explaining exactly why it isn't pointless, but you can read snippets from the following article if you wish:

    Why Apple's Guidance is Still Important:

    iPhone 5 Coming This June

    2011-2012 iPad Estimates

    Every single part of Apple's guidance is extraordinarily important in being able to determine what Apple will report in earnings. It may not be that important to other analysis or to CNBC's Herb Greenberg, but they also don't consistently come in 1st to 5th place in estimating Apple's revenue and earnings. Tomorrow I'll be publishing a revenue outlook for Apple's fiscal Q3 as well as an earnings outlook for Apple's fiscal Q3. You might want to read them as I'll go into very great detail in terms of Apple's guidance.
    May 30 09:21 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zaky: 2011-2012 Macintosh Sales Estimates [View article]
    Sure. I can easily put together a really good way to capitalize on Apple with very minimal downside risk and a potential 5-10 bagger. I'm actually thinking about putting together some material I plan to sell on how to really capitalize on Apple.

    A big part of being able to do this is know when to sell calls against a position, exactly which strikes to buy and when. There are better times than others to buy leaps.

    For example, the $400 January calls in April ahead of Apple's results were trading at around $15 dollars. After Apple's results they got to a high of $19. Those same calls are sitting here just a month later at $9.50. In fact, before Apple's results, those same calls were trading at $14 when Apple was at $337. Now they're trading at only $9.50 at the same price-level.

    There's a right way and wrong way to capitalize on Apple. If I was given $10 million today, I would return $50 million by 2013. $100 million by 2015. It really isn't all that hard. $100,000 today should make anyone a millionaire in 4 years.
    May 30 08:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zaky: 2011-2012 Macintosh Sales Estimates [View article]
    Apple still has a microscopic slice of the computer market. It can easily get up to selling 10 million units a quarter. No problem. The fact that the sequential growth between Q1 and Q3 has slowed has less to do with the global recession and more to do with how seasonality affects Apple's product cycle. The year over year growth is an indication of how the recession has impacted Apple's Macintosh sales.
    May 30 03:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zaky: 2011-2012 Macintosh Sales Estimates [View article]
    Thousands of shares? Come talk to me. I'll make you millions in a year.
    May 30 03:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zaky: 2011-2012 Macintosh Sales Estimates [View article]
    Yeah I'll be posting my Q3 earnings preview, my FYE 2011 revenue and earnings estimates and my FYE 2012 revenue and earnings estimates.

    After this, I'm going to compare Apple to every large cap company on the NASDAQ and the top 10 largest companies by market cap on the S&P 500. Head to head comparison every few days.
    May 30 03:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zaky's 2011 iPhone Sales Estimates [View article]
    Thanks. I wasn't actually accusing them of actual "channel stuffing" in the way you might think. Though the technical definition of "channel stuffing" does point to the illegal means by which a company increases it's number, it is used far more lax in the industry to also signify when a company has significantly increased its channel inventory.

    And if you look at the context in which this is written, no one -- except for you I guess -- would think that I'm accusing Apple of the illegal manes of increasing their channel inventory.

    You can only draw meaning from the context in which something is written. Don't focus on the inconsequential. It really doesn't serve anyone to do so. The important point here is, the ended the quarter in supply-demand balance and increased channel inventory by 1.7 million units. That's the highest increase in the company's history -- according to Apple.

    The logical still stands. Expect a lower number as a result of this channel increase.
    May 30 03:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment