Seeking Alpha

Andy Zaky

View as an RSS Feed
View Andy Zaky's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • FOMC Day: Near Term Top Is Likely In [View article]
    Tina - Lets review the analysis. First, whether you may or may not realize this, there's a difference between a short, intermediate and long term outlook. Don't worry if you can't understand the difference, as I'm always forced to repeat myself over and over again on this point. So you're not the first to conflate these different outlooks.

    LONG TERM OUTLOOK: Ok. So a few weeks ago, ahead of QE2, I noted that equities would see a huge rally in 2011 right? That hasn't changed at all. That's my long-term outlook for the market. L-O-N-G T-E-R-M. You can read my long-term out-look here:

    Notice that in this analysis I also note that the market was due for a NEAR TERM correction. So long term, huge rally, near term getting over extended and due for a correction.


    Now lets review some of the calls I've made over the past several months since that's what you would like to see. For me, I would rather focus on the future, but it's fine lets review the calls:

    1. On September 7, 2010 - "Apple headed straight to $300." At the time this article was written, Apple was trading at $255 a share. It started to break out. I note in the article that Apple was making an immediate move to $300 and that unlike the previous attempts, this move was for real:

    "After bouncing between $230 and $280 since April, this new move up in Apple is for real. Even as the market pulls back after a healthy move up since last Monday, funds are still rushing in to buy the name. The stock has already moved almost $25 points since its bottom just seven trading sessions ago."

    See here:

    2. September 14, 2010 - I predict that Apple will break $300 a share by October. This despite the fact that it was bumping its resistance.

    3. September 16, 2010 - I write for Fortune that RIMM was bottoming out, undervalued and headed higher. The stock is up over 50% since I recommended it in the $40's. See here:

    4. October 16, 2010 - I note the importance of hedging Apple positions ahead of its earnings and how to do so. Those who did so, protected their profits. I didn't lose a penny on Apple earnings despite the fact the stock pulled back significantly because i was well hedged going into its earnings results. See here:

    5. Miss-Step in calling an Early Correction On October 19, 2010 - Because Apple had a weak earnings report and because the cumulative downticks on the NYSE was extremely bearish on Apple earnings, I got very defensive. But once it was clear the market wasn't in sell-off mode I got bullish again. See here:

    6. November 29, 2010 - "Post QE2 Sell-Off coming to an end." I gave people a 1-day lead time to buy ahead of this rally we've had for over two weeks now. I noted that the lows were put in on the QE2 sell-off. Those who bought, are up significantly since November 30, 2010.

    Remember this is at a time when the market was seeing 200 point sell-offs daily. I noted in this analysis during the lows of the sell-off that the S&P 500 would rally to 1265 by year end and that Apple would see fresh all time highs by the following week. Apple did see fresh all-time highs by the following Tuesday and the S&P 500 saw 1245. So I was 20 points off. Still, even though I missed my S&P 500 sell-target by 20 points, the S&P 500 still rallied over 70 points since I noted that we bottomed.

    7. December 15, 2010 - "NEAR-TERM top in the markets likely in on FOMC day."

    So after getting two solid weeks of massive gains buying in the 1170's on the S&P 500 and selling in the 1245's, I note that the market is headed lower.

    But notice this is a near-term and maybe even intermediate term outlook. January we'll probably see a significant sell-off that would be considered a buying opportunity based on my long-term outlook.

    The reason I decided to write this all out is because this is a common mistake a lot of people make.

    So in the last few months I did the following:

    1. Predicted the immediate move to +$300 in Apple. I didn't state that I have some $300 target. I made a firm prediction of an immediate 1-month move to $300. That's different than saying Apple is going to $300 in some distant point in the future.

    2. Made a case for RIMM in the low $40's. Its up 50% now.

    3. Called an early correction in late October. Correction occurred 2-3 weeks later.

    4. Perfectly called the bottom of the November QE2 Sell-Off.

    5. And now I'm noting a near-term top and looking for a sell-off either immediately or a major sell-off in January.

    Oh yeah, here's one more prediction for you. On April 26, 2010, the day the market topped, Fortune ran a piece where I note that the market was headed for a major collapse in May. Here it is:

    I hope I don't have to see here and defend my track record anymore. If you don't feel like I offer anything of value, just don't read my analysis.
    Dec 15, 2010. 06:46 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • At the Precipice: When Everyone's Fearful ... Sell? [View article]
    "In the vast majority of cases, I would agree with the convention that rising expectations of a sell-off lowers the general probability of that sell-off actually occurring. However, in this particular case I think we’re headed lower despite this long-standing principle."

    I guess this isn't clear enough for you. Neither is the title. Maybe this line?

    "Right now, the evidence clearly indicates the market is far more likely to break down than rally out. "

    So I don't see where I say the market "may go up or it may go down." What I say is, the market is VERY likely to go down and maybe it will rally but probably not. The maybe it will rally part had to be mentioned because there is an inverted head & shoulders as I noted in the article, and 1130 is the line of resistance. Will we see 1130 in the short or intermediate term, well just as this article plainly mentions - very unlikely.
    Aug 24, 2010. 09:47 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Warning Signs Suggest Market Headed for Another Collapse [View article]
    Yea I agree with the Apple assessment. Though I don't think I believe it has much value above $400. I'll be writing an article on this topic shortly. You can read my coverage of Apple either here, at Fortune, at Appleinsider or at Bullish Cross.

    I also obviously agree that the broader market faces some major headwinds going into the fall. Thanks for the note.
    Aug 2, 2010. 05:24 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barron's on Apple and Microsoft [View article]
    Yea. I agree. This wasn't supposed to actually be pressed. Its fine that SA did run it, but the title is very misleading. Not my work. This was just a little blurb on my blog. My apologizes.
    Jul 25, 2010. 12:44 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Fiscal Q1 2012: The Biggest Earnings Blowout In History? [View article]
    Kenneth explain to me how Apple is trading at around $400 a share right now when it was trading at $80.00 during the financial crisis. That's 5x higher than it was in 2009. The S&P 500 is barely up 100% during the same period.

    Apple goes in phases of consolidation for 6-months ahead of another major leg up. We're nearing the end of that consolidation phase. I know precisely what I'm talking about. Apple's next leg is pretty imminent. Now if everyone wants to cling on to this very asinine notion that "they want to keep Apple down," then that's your bad. The fact of the matter is, Apple doesn't go straight up. I moves up in legs. The next leg will begin by January.
    Dec 18, 2011. 02:22 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish Cross Initiates Fourth-Ever Buy Rating on Apple [View article]
    So the $400 by July call was highly dependent on the behavior around the developers conference. We didn't have confirmation of a breakout like we did in September and I noted that in the article. The June iPhone call was not an easy one to make by any stretch. As for the "chest beating" there are reasons for this. Whenever I don't post my background in an article, I'm stuck having to answer several comments that pretty much end up demanding that I post my background. Yet, if I lay out my background in the article itself, then I have to deal with those who know my background and are sick of the "chest-beating." it's lose-lose and all I really want to say on the topic.
    Jun 18, 2011. 04:41 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Valuation: The One Article Every Investor Should Read [View article]
    Stupidity? I don't know. They should offer a stock-split tomorrow. It would dramatically help it's shareholders. It will expand the base of people who can afford to buy shares of the company.

    Let me take a crack here. I think the reason Apple doesn't want to split the stock is because it might lead to future turmoil if everyone and their mother buys Apple's stock. THose people are most likely to panic in harsh sell-offs which could cause even more selling pressure.

    Not a very good argument. But that could be one justification. A bad justification. But a justification nonetheless.

    I still think they should split as soon as possible. Especially since the stock clear has been underperforming here at $330-$350 range.
    Jun 7, 2011. 12:37 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zaky: Apple's P/E Ratio Falls to Lowest Level Since Financial Crisis Despite 92% Earnings Growth [View article]
    Get a dictionary and look up the term "since."

    Apple's P/E ratio falls to lowest level SINCE the financial crisis. As in, during the financial crisis we had a lower P/E ratio. We haven't seen a lower P/E ratio SINCE then.

    How can anyone trust a commentator who has a very low grasp of the english language?

    What's even more interesting is the fact that if you actually read the article you would find that the very first chart -- three paragraphs in -- shows an average daily P/E ratio that is lower than the current average daily P/E ratio during the financial crisis. But as it is clear you have a difficult time with reading I'll post the variables for you:

    Fiscal Q1 2009 (Calendar Q4 2008): Apple had an average daily P/E ratio of 13.36

    Fiscal Q2 2009 (Calendar Q1 2009): Apple had an average daily P/E ratio of 13.61

    The lowest P/E ratio Apple has had on a closing basis since 2007 was 11.6 and that was in Q2 2009. Again this is on a closing basis.

    Thanks for reading. Or rather I should say, thanks for trying.
    May 15, 2011. 12:02 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zaky: Apple's P/E Ratio Falls to Lowest Level Since Financial Crisis Despite 92% Earnings Growth [View article]
    No lol. It's actually in millions haha. Apple actually does have $65,000 million dollars which amounts to $65 Billion. There are 1,000 millions in a billion.
    May 13, 2011. 10:28 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Huge Rally for Equities Coming in 2011 [View article]
    Its frothy but it doesn't matter. Its been frothy for over a month. Has that changed anything? Sure we might get a correction especially in January which has been known to be the correction month, but that will be short lived. We'll see a minor correction like we saw last January - February. That correction should be bought. We're going straight up in 2011.
    Nov 5, 2010. 01:46 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How to Protect Apple Profits Ahead of Earnings [View article]
    With that much capital at risk, I would be massively irresponsible if I didn't suggest you seek the advice of a professional financial advisor. I'm just a writer. I cannot even give you a hypothetical with that much money at risk. What I can say is that leaps are probably some of the most risky assets period. Please please do some very high level of due diligence. Seek the advice of a professional on this matter.

    Imagine someone decides they want to take out their own appendix, AND they are not even a doctor. What type of advice would you give them?
    Oct 17, 2010. 09:29 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Surpasses My October $300 Price Target: What's Next? [View article]
    Well there was speculation that the heir to the throne of Apple might be going to HP. That was later debunked as plainly false and Apple recovered.
    Oct 15, 2010. 02:00 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Getting Over-Extended [View article]
    Yeah I wrote this on Monday. Seeking Alpha is just late to publishing it. The article is slightly dated.
    Sep 29, 2010. 10:06 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: One Last Pullback and Then It's Up, Up and Away [View article]
    Maybe the author is sick of morons who simply cannot comprehend the reasons behind his thesis and no longer wants to provide those reasons. Apple has done well since I've written this article, has it not??
    Sep 19, 2010. 01:25 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Should Hold Off on Paying a Dividend [View article]
    Don't presume to know what I would or won't say in any given situation since you obviously cannot grasp the very simple concepts presented in this article. Exxon is a value play, Apple is a growth stock. Exxon by its nature must reinvest its capital to expand its business while Apple can expand without tapping into its cash. There's a difference between a growth stock putting capital to use and a value stock putting capital to use.
    Aug 13, 2010. 04:58 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment