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Andy Zaky

 
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  • Apple's 'Real' Earnings: Up Almost 125% [View article]
    To Channon:

    I think Oppenhiemer is just being extremely conservative this quarter. He changed his guidance statement from "we offer guidance that we think Apple has a reasonable chance of making" to "we are going to be very prudent with our guidance." They used the term "prudent" which has never been part of the guidance language in the past. Thus, I think you need to take what Apple says with a huge grain of salt.

    Also, with regard to your $0.20/quarter argument, it doesn't quite work that way. EPS depends on so many factors in any given quarter. Everything from the tax rate, to OI&E to overall gross margins and especially operating expenses plays into EPS. So while the weight of the iPhone deferred revenue might be worth $0.20 in one quarter, it could very well be worth $0.30 or $0.10 in another quarter. Its best to think of adjusted earnings as what Apple would have earned in Q4 had they not implemented the subscription method of accounts. And its best to think of iPhone deferred revenue in terms of revenue. When know how much deferred revenue will contribute to the top line in any given quarter, but know very little on how much it will contribute to the bottom line in any given quarter. OpEx, OI&E and the Tax rate along with overall gross margins being affected by higher or lower total revenue determines how much of an EPS contribution deferred revenue will have on any given quarter.

    -Andy
    Oct 25 05:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Surprising Jump After Bleak Guidance [View article]
    Why don't you read this and then you might begin to understand why the stock might climb.

    bullcross.blogspot.com...
    Oct 23 07:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix May Dominate The Online Video World, But With What Business Model? [View article]
    I guess you fail to understand that Apple owns 90% of the video download market right now.
    Oct 10 05:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Major Bounce or Major Breakdown? [View article]
    If this is a sell the news type of company, where's the buying of the rumor? Its not a sell on the news, but rather a manipulative sell-off caused by shifting focus away form anything but the "news." If anything, Apple's a sell the rumor, sell the news type of company. They sell the rumor because they know that the market will manipulate the stock any time good news comes out.

    Ex.
    1. 3G iPhone = Focus on Jobs Health
    2. Earnings = Focus on Jobs' Health
    3. Lets Rock Event = Focus on Jobs' Health

    As a matter of fact, any time good news is pending, the market chooses to focus on Jobs' health. Jobs' health has now been brought up on 5 separate occasions as if its new news.

    1. 3G iPhone Release
    2. Earnings
    3. 2-weeks after Earnigns
    4. Bloomberg Obituary
    5. Let's Rock Event

    How much do you want to bet that Jobs' health will be brought up again on October earnings?

    So, your characterization while good in theory is fatal in fact. There's no selling on the news, because there's no buying on the rumor for people to sell on the news. Sell on the news occurs because those who bought into the rumor, sell or take profits once the news actually hits. But there's no one taking positions ahead of this event. In fact, Apple is down $14 since it announced the event last tuesday. Its down every day.

    Hence, you're sell the news characterization is misleading at best.
    Sep 9 06:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Stocks Poised to Move on Tuesday [View article]
    Seriously. Why do you writers continue to compare GOOG, RIMM and AAPL by looking to their P/Es? Can you answer that question? Have you heard of P/FCF at all? Do you realize that Apple defers revenue it receives from iPhone sales an recognizes the revenue ratably over a 24-month period? What if Apple deferred all of its revenue? Would you still use Apple's P/E to compare it to other companies? Think about it. If Apple only recorded $1 billion in revenue because it decided to defer all of its revenue, but produced $4 billion in free cash flow (4x the revenue) would you still be inclined to look at Apple's P/E as if it meant anything? Obviously not. So why do you do so when Apple defers a large portion of its revenue each quarter? It's because you know nothing about stocks, fundamentals and finance and probably shouldn't be writing anything ever.
    Sep 9 03:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Stocks Poised to Move on Tuesday [View article]
    Seriously. Why do you writers continue to compare GOOG, RIMM and AAPL by looking to their P/Es? Can you answer that question? Have you heard of P/FCF at all? Do you realize that Apple defers revenue it receives from iPhone sales an recognizes the revenue ratably over a 24-month period? What if Apple deferred all of its revenue? Would you still use Apple's P/E to compare it to other companies? Think about it. If Apple only recorded $1 billion in revenue because it decided to defer all of its revenue, but produced $4 billion in free cash flow (4x the revenue) would you still be inclined to look at Apple's P/E as if it meant anything? Obviously not. So why do you do so when Apple defers a large portion of its revenue each quarter? It's because you know nothing about stocks, fundamentals and finance and probably shouldn't be writing anything ever.
    Sep 9 03:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Great Company with Lofty Valuation - Due for Pullback [View article]
    I rest my case. Add Mark to the list of writers who have absolutely no clue:

    seekingalpha.com/artic...


    Aug 18 09:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Deferred Revenues Revisited: This Was a Blow-Out Quarter [View article]
    Bravo Stephen! You might find my article on the topic interesting. It compliments your nicely.

    seekingalpha.com/artic...

    www.appleinsider.com/a...
    Jul 30 04:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Five Great Quality Companies: Are They Too Expensive? [View article]
    Valuate is a term.

    www.wordreference.com/...

    www.yourdictionary.com...

    www.merriam-webster.co...

    You should do your research before condescending. And I'll call people out when they deserve to be called out. One's reasoned analysis should stand alone notwithstanding the brashness of its delivery.
    Jul 28 09:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Steve Jobs' Health: A Red Herring [View article]
    To: lostinvancouver

    Interesting how you comment that the author knows apparently zero about stock valuation and then focus on the fact that Apple has a 35 trailing P/E for determining that the stock is implicitly over-valued. First of all, Apple grew earnings 47% this year. So the trailing P/E is justified.

    Yet, even the stupid analyst understands that valuation is based on analyzing a stock's forward rather than its dated-trailing P/E.

    Yet, those of higher intelligence understand even further that one shouldn't even really focus on Apple's P/E since a large portion of its revenue is deferred due to the iPhone subscription method of accounting. They realize that due to the subscription method of accounting, Apple generates large horde's of cash which aren't fully reflected in a P/E ratio, and that the analyst should probably focus on Apple's P/DCF.

    But thanks for demonstrating your expert understanding of stock valuation based on looking at Apple's trailing P/E. The one number that no analyst really cares about.

    A 25 forward P/E is not a steep valuation for a company that is generating large amounts cash from operations not figured into its income statement.
    Jul 22 07:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Strongest June Quarter in Apple History Doesn't Satisfy the Street [View article]
    Steve Jobs has Never Attended an Apple Conference Call!
    Jul 22 05:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Strongest June Quarter in Apple History Doesn't Satisfy the Street [View article]
    Steve Jobs has Never Attended an Apple Conference Call!
    Jul 22 05:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Shorting Apple Ahead of Earnings [View article]
    7.51 Billion in Revenue? You're out of your mind. Read:

    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    Jul 17 06:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple TV or XBox: Which Is the Living Room Winner? [View article]
    The problem with Xbox 360 is that it's a video game console. Enough said. It simply doesn't appeal to a wide enough audiance. The average female is not going to buy an Xbox just so she play movies on her television set. She is far more likely to buy an AppleTV however.

    Moreover, the interface on the Apple TV is far more appealing, efficient and eloquent than the Xbox 360's as the AppleTV is narrowly tailored for the purposes of delivering the wide breadth of media content to the end user. I've used both for media, and AppleTV simply kills Xbox on this front. You're comparing a high school football team to the NFL here.

    Another problem with even thinking there's a contest between the two is that while Apple owns "merely" 70% of the legal music download market, it owns a staggering 90% of the video download market depsite its limited content. Why? Because iTunes basically craps on everything else.

    Finally, and most importantly, people are not going to simply "leave" iTunes and their iPhone - Mac - AppleTv - iPod - iTunes ecosystem for the Xbox 360. If you own a 360, then I could undestand how one might go with this system. But if you own a Mac, iPod Touch, iPhone or use iTunes, you're far more likely to use an AppleTV.

    If you're interested in the Apple TV and its potential impact on the video market, you could read my article on the subject published here at Seeking Alpha:

    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    Jul 15 04:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Are Not Selling the iPhone News [View article]
    They're not selling the news, because they never bought the rumor!!!! Look at Apple's chart post earnings. It jumped after posting a strong earnings report and has been on a downtrend ever since. It reported earnings on April 25 and began its downtrend to the abyss starting in early May. No move to the upside on 3G announcement. Instead, the market sold Apple off nearly $15.00 in a matter of days. Now you wonder why they haven't sold the news on launch day? How many times do you want them to not buy the rumor but sell the same news?
    Jul 14 06:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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