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Andy Zaky
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Andy Zaky is a Hedge Fund Manager at Bullish Cross Asset Management, and editor of the Bullish Cross financial newsletter. His main area of knowledge is in global macro economics, fundamental analysis and technical analysis. Andy has about 14 years of investment experience, a strong background... More
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  • Potential Double-Top on Nvidia
    After surging over 10% on mediocre earnings last week, Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) is down $1.64 or 6.40% as the broader market melts down on turmoil in Libya and concerns that the "jobless" and "houseless" economic recovery could potentially be derailed by surging oil prices i.e. the Bernanke manipulated rally could prematurely end as investors finally take profits on non-sense news out of the middle-east.  

    Note that last week Nvidia absolutely surged on a beat on the bottom line despite coming in very weak on revenue.  So it's no surprise to see the stock sell-off as investors have digested Nvida's earnings results.  Expect further selling pressure as investors continue taking significant built-in profits in the name.  

    Now this fundamentally driven sell-off (wink-wink) in Nvidia sets up a potential double top in the $26 area and it would behove investors to watch the $22-$23 range for a confirmed breakdown.  If Nvidia loses support at $22 a share, the stock will likely go into free-fall testing at least the 50-day moving average if not lower.  The stock is up nearly 65% in 2011 alone so it would make sense to see the stock retrace some of those gains.  The 50-day moving average sits at $20.38.  

    If broader market concerns continue to persist and the market undergoes a correction, shares of Nvidia will likely see continued selling pressure opening up potential opportunities at the $17-$17.50 gap line.  Yet, on the other side of the tape, if Nvidia can get above its $26 resistance level its a clear road all the way to $30 a share.  

    Still, at the current moment, the risk is clearly to the downside given this potential double top set-up off of muted earnings results last Tuesday.  The next few trading sessions will be very key for Nvida's intermediate term direction.  Though Nvidia's fundamentals have been strengthening as of late, investors should realize that fundamentals only play a very small part in overall price discovery and that today's key news in Nvidia is the fact that the stock is setting up for a double top breakdown.  Nothing else is nearly as important today with Nvidia today.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Additional disclosure: I have no intentions on taking a position in Nvidia one way or the other and simply call it as I see it.
    Tags: NVDA
    Feb 22 11:45 AM | Link | Comment!
  • CBS, Nvidia higher in after hours on muted earnings
    CBS (NYSE:CBS) is trading moderately higher in the after hours sessions on extraordinary earnings result. The company said net-income grew nearly 500% to $283 million ($0.41 a share or $0.46 non-GAAP) from a mere $58 million ($0.09 a share) in the same quarter last year.  Revenue was up a little over 10% to $3.9 billion on the quarter.  

    Analysts polled by Thomson Financial were expecting the company to post earnings of $0.44 a share on $3.84 billion in revenue.  The beat, though somewhat muted, was enough to keep the company trading higher in after hours.  CBS ended the regular session up $0.45 to $22.10 a share or 2.08% higher.  The stock traded as high as $23 in after hour before pulling back down to $22.30 or up $0.20 (1%).  

    Nvida (NASDAQ:NVDA) is also trading moderately higher in the after hours session despite missing on the top-line.  The company revealed that fourth-quarter revenue came in at $886 million versus consensus estimates which was looking for $894.5 million.  This probably has to do with the fact that the company significantly beat EPS expectations fueled largely by its settlement with Intel (NASDAQ:INTC).  Analysts were generally expecting the company to report $0.21 in EPS -- the company came in at $0.29.  

    Gross margins rose to 48.1% up nearly 160 basis points sequentially.  Nvidia also said that it expects revenue to come in at $939 to $957 million -- way ahead of the $888.5 million consensus -- for the upcoming quarter.  Nvidia is up over 50% over the past 6 weeks so its no surprise to see the stock trade  higher despite missing on the top-line.  In an environment of deep froth, stocks rarely trade lower even when companies miss expectations.  

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
    Tags: NVDA, CBS, INTC
    Feb 16 4:42 PM | Link | Comment!
  • QQQQ Price Action Suggests Correction Incoming
    The QQQQ violated its one-month lower trend line today (Thursday, September 30, 2010 at 8:00 a.m. PST) suggesting that it may be on the verge of another correction. For the past 18-months, a violation of the lower trend line has led to at least a correction in the vast majority of cases and a bigger pull-back in the other cases. Yet, how far this correction can actually go in light of the 10 hefty POMO injections by the fed since August is anyone's guess. What we do know is that the last 3 times the fed initiated 9 POMO injections, the market was up 10% over the next 3-month period.

    So while we may be in for a correction, I don't think this correction will be that big. We'll probably bottom out near the 50% retracement of the September rally in equities. Tread carefully right here. Bulls now have to place their hopes on the employment report and the bears need at least one more day of confirmation.


    Disclosure: Short QQQQ
    Sep 30 12:52 PM | Link | Comment!
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