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Andy Zelenak

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  • ReneSola Stumbles Again [View article]
    I'm not Seriously concerned, but it could definitely happen in a year or so. I hope that management is seriously concerned.

    Think of the $50M-or-so debt they could have paid off over the last year if they hadn't squandered it on LED and storage R&D.
    Dec 1, 2014. 09:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ReneSola Earnings Preview [View article]
    Never mind... :P
    Nov 26, 2014. 01:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ReneSola Earnings Preview [View article]
    You should be comparing market caps, not share prices.
    Nov 26, 2014. 01:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford divulges fuel-economy numbers on 2015 F-150 [View news story]
    Yeah this is a bit disappointing. What our country really needs to do is figure out why diesel is so much more expensive, because it really is a better fuel.
    Nov 21, 2014. 02:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: EPA plans to drop 2014 renewable fuel quotas [View news story]
    Amazingly REGI was able to turn a profit with hardly any subsidies. It sucks that the EPA might be pulling the rug out right when REGI was finding success. I'm pissed at the EPA for waiting til November to announce they'll do nothing. Typical.
    Nov 21, 2014. 02:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity: An Estimation Of Intrinsic Value Through Effective Earnings [View article]
    Yeah I have to agree. These last couple articles and the comments are getting close to the truth.
    Nov 18, 2014. 07:22 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does SolarCity Use Capital Efficiently? [View article]
    I'm curious if PPA revenue is accounted for in "contracted payments remaining." Seems like it might not be because it's not contracted-- it depends on the energy produced by the systems. That can be easily predicted but maybe isn't included in the figure.

    If not, that would be an additional bullish factor that isn't accounted for.

    I'm grateful to Prophet for making me think about the time value of SolarCity's books.
    Nov 15, 2014. 03:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • RGS Energy: Worth The Risk? [View article]
    I wrote a few articles about RGSE in the past, but I've realized there are other great bargains in the solar industry that carry much less risk. Look at JASO for example, which is near a 2-year low... even though it's profitable, has a relatively strong balance sheet, and makes high-efficiency modules.

    At this point, I just don't see why one would take a risk on RGSE when there are so many better choices out there.
    Nov 15, 2014. 12:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Does SolarCity Use Capital Efficiently? [View article]
    How much of a discount on contracted payments is appropriate? Even at a 25% discount, contracted payments are greater than total liabilities.

    Some leaseholders will renew, at zero extra cost to SolarCity, which is not accounted for in contracted payments.

    I don't completely trust SolarCity's retained value metric either, but I think you're being too much of a GAAP Nazi.
    Nov 13, 2014. 01:19 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SunPower: Staying Ahead Of The Pack [View article]
    Good article. I was gonna write something similar but you have it covered. A couple more points to add:

    It's unlikely that more than one or two Chinese competitors will match SunPower's efficiency in the next few years. SunPower surely has some IP to protect its processes, which gives SPWR a nice first mover advantage. Its competitors will also be developing their own IP as they seek better efficiency - so as more manufacturers improve their efficiency, it will become harder for the laggards.

    SunPower dominates the top end of the market, but it also dominates the low end with its C7 tracker systems. Reportedly those have the lowest LCOE of any solar system. It's also nice because it acts like a "module multiplier," substituting mirrors for modules. Chinese manufacturers won't be able to match it for a couple of reasons:
    1. SunPower has additional IP on the C7 tracker system.
    2. It requires high-efficiency modules to collect light from the mirrors, which, again, SunPower dominates.

    Yeah, I think this is my favorite solar stock right now.
    Nov 11, 2014. 08:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity's Shareholder Value After Q3 2014 [View article]
    There's an easy metric to settle this argument which hasn't been discussed here yet (and you don't need an accounting degree to understand it.) I'll write an article about it on Tuesday- not sure what the result will be b/c I haven't checked the numbers yet, but hopefully it's bullish.
    Nov 9, 2014. 05:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First Solar misses by $0.03, misses on revenue [View news story]
    14% efficiency and distributed generation growing faster than utility-scale.
    Nov 6, 2014. 05:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Riding The Solar S Curve With A Balanced Stock Portfolio [View article]
    Sounds eerily similar to
    Oct 16, 2014. 09:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Solar and fuel cell stocks sell off as oil prices touch $85 [View news story]
    The irony is killing me. You poor, confused market.
    Oct 13, 2014. 04:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Revisiting ReneSola's Investment Thesis [View article]
    What are you guys thinking for Q3 net profit? I'm predicting $10M. It's been nice to see poly prices slowly creeping up again, although it won't last forever.

    Also, have you seen SOL's new webpage? It's looking slick.
    Oct 10, 2014. 01:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment