Andy Zelenak

Growth, solar, energy, long-term horizon
Andy Zelenak
Growth, solar, energy, long-term horizon
Contributor since: 2013
Thanks author. You do some serious research. I appreciate it.
It's an academic discussion because there will be hardly any solar installed with these fees. Furthermore, storage isn't necessary until around 15% "penetration," as they call it.
What about when they charge $40/month then mark up the resale price by 400%? Does that seem excessive to anybody else?
How's that short position going, Donny? I hear it's expensive to borrow these days. Meanwhile solar costs have probably fallen another 5%.
The lightbulb thing was just a whimsical observation, but I recently paid $4 for a 6W LED bulb.
Hey, look at this ad to the left. It's for an Elio car that gets 84 mpg. How ironic.
This author is unique in his/her stubborness in maintaining an opinion on certain stocks, whether right or wrong. That emotion isn't usually a good sign.
Furthermore, SCTY bears haven't thought through the "big picture" of costs and distributed solar vs. utility-scale vs. monolithic fossil power. That's all I will say for now. You will have to figure it out in a couple years.
A nice piece on GAAP accounting at SunPower--
A minor correction that's often been reported incorrectly:
The ITC falls to 0% only for SOME residential solar. I believe it falls to 0% for customer-owned systems, but 10% for third-party-owned systems. See--
(^basically what Rogier said)
IMO an epic short squeeze is in the making.
Roger that re. the factory, but ramping up a salesforce certainly will.
<<I have now identified a few places where you have misinterpreted the financial statements of SCTY. Could it be time for you to re-think your thesis? Maybe the lemmings understand accounting better than you do?>>
You certainly understand accounting better than I do, and I thank you for broadening my understanding, but heck no, I won't change my position. Don't lose sight of the forest for the trees-- you stated earlier that it seemed SCTY was approximately breaking even. Now remember that they are doing so while growing 80% and building a Gigafactory.
^ and thank you
Bill, this little side project has taken up more than enough of my time already. I'll make a few final points:
1) I would also be curious to find out where that PIC came from. As I pointed out above, the # of diluted shares is decreasing. The company is not funding growth by diluting equity.
2) The entire sector is beaten down and itching for a rebound. Look at SPWR: a profitable company with great growth projections that sold off 6.5% yesterday. Or look at CSIQ, or JASO. That type of illogical market action can't continue forever.
3) Many of the comments here in support of GAAP actually lead me to distrust it even more. It's tremendously complicated. It seems you have a choice of trusting complicated, misunderstood GAAP vs. complicated, misunderstood NRV.
4) You commented above about how important the lease renewals after 20 years are. They actually are not so important. See the chart in the article and realize, also, that the panels will physically produce less power towards the end of their lives.
And a great video:
My issue with Chanos is that some of his statements were baseless. A quote from a Raymond James analyst:
“We are all entitled to our opinions but not to our facts,” said energy analyst Pavel Molchanov of Raymond James. “Some of the claims he made about this company just are not true.”
If his facts been accurate, I wouldn't have had any issue at all.
BV, if it falls farther, I will be happy to buy more for the long term. So it's not necessarily a bad thing.
Bryce, you're a by-the-book guy. I can understand that. But explain to me why GAAP equity is growing while GAAP EPS is horrible.
Great points, Bizlike. I also wanted to point out that even if NRV is overstated by 50%, the stock is still a buy.
<<They don't have enough time left to slow growth.>>
Why would it take any time at all to slow growth?
<<SCTY says they will replace the roof if needed>>
That's a new one.
Tin-foil hat alert... haha, I'm joking with you.
I wouldn't mind seeing the average score drop to like 700 and the floor to like 625. Below that might make me nervous.
The SCTY payment isn't as bad as something like a car payment because
A) it's smaller
B) making the SCTY payment saves money out-of-pocket
I think Chanos is the one who should be worrying about lawyers. He basically pulled a reverse pump-and-dump. Is there a phrase for that?
FYI I don't care where it goes. It's a small portion of my portfolio. But I do think you're quite wrong.
Nope, please explain, Donnie.
Actually, the # of diluted shares appears to have decreased y/y?! What would that mean, wise guy? Not dilution...
97.4M diluted shares in Sep 2015, 99.4M in Sep. 2014;pdf=
page 6, bottom line

You and everybody else can read their Q3 Balance Sheet:

Stockholders’ Equity went from $759m to $815m but their Long Term Debt climbed 4.5 times faster. It went from $624m to $878m.>>
I guess I'll accept this as tacit admission that YOU WERE WRONG.
And you are only looking at one side of the equation. I don't care how fast debt grew, assets obviously grew faster.
Sorry buddy, this thread is between Prophet and I and his claim that equity is not increasing.
Please post a screen capture which shows, from a recent SEC filing, that shareholder equity is not increasing.
You won't be able to. I caught you in a lie that you have repeated several times.
You got lucky that the market took a dump. Cheers to you
They have to replace an inverter every 10 years. Inverters are cheap. Get over it.
Some of your points are easy to answer:
2. EQUITY IS GROWING. Stop saying that, it's clearly wrong.
4. SCTY hasn't had any problem raising funds with bonds that pay 5.45%.
6. Their gross margin is 32% (IIRC). They have a big year coming. It won't take much to lower costs a bit more to survive that environment. And the ITC could very well get extended.
7. That has been dragging on for a very long time. Doubt it's going anywhere.
8. An easy 10% return from solar sounds awesome compared to other opportunities during a recession.
9. No
10. Utility rates are up 47% in 13 years. A bit cheaper nat. gas probably won't reverse that trend.
11. I doubt it. Less well-prepared solar installers (e.g. RGSE) will be dropping like flies if the ITC isn't renewed.
@ahm... to play Devil's Advocate here, your statement could be interpreted to mean that CSIQ is massively undervalued compared to its peers. (no position in CSIQ)