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Andy Zelenak  

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  • Solar stocks sell off as oil, energy stocks, Canadian Solar get hit [View news story]
    TSL down 8% after a very good earnings report seems like a no-brainer. (No position.)

    Mob mentality is fun to observe if you can remain objective.
    Aug 19, 2015. 10:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solarcity: Misunderstood And Undervalued [View article]
    Thanks! I'm strongly considering some LEAPS.
    Aug 4, 2015. 10:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solarcity: Misunderstood And Undervalued [View article]
    The best part of this article is the table that shows how lease renewals account for <25% of retained value. That's good info to know.

    I suspect this stock is going to flatline for awhile longer before the 30%+ who are short capitulate. I don't think it will take more than another quarter or two for the short squeeze to occur, which might happen when retained value exceeds the market cap.
    Aug 3, 2015. 11:52 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JA Solar: Capitalizing On The Downturn [View article]
    Good article. I'm happy to hold this stock as long as they continue to turn a profit(or until it hits ~$15). Their technology leads all Chinese manufacturers, poly costs are falling, etc.

    Their results this quarter were a little disappointing, but only in terms of the high expectations that were set. Investors also need to consider the "lumpiness" that comes with project development.

    Thanks for the LBO comment. I'll look into that.
    May 28, 2015. 10:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Will SolarCity Stop Misrepresenting Its Financials? [View article]
    You missed "then-current utility rate", snake. That would be 0.9*0.8=0.72 ==> 28% lower if you go with SCTY.

    Not sure I follow your numbers or where you got them from, though. Can you explain?
    May 5, 2015. 08:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • When Will SolarCity Stop Misrepresenting Its Financials? [View article]
    CA (Cocky Analyst) has one of the worst records amongst all bloggers. 4006/4411, -6.5% annual return. So the situation is actually hilarious.
    http://bit.ly/1AAKrii
    May 4, 2015. 07:44 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity Is My Favorite Idea That Everyone Knows, But That No One Understands [View article]
    Well, that brings up another good point, Bob. Is it more cost-effective to replace natural gas consumption or electricity consumption?
    Apr 22, 2015. 05:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity Is My Favorite Idea That Everyone Knows, But That No One Understands [View article]
    I'm skeptical of some of your arguments.

    It's claimed multiple times that solar thermal absorbs 5X more energy than photovoltaic. Do you have a source for that figure? If it's true (obviously it isn't), that would put solar thermal at >100% efficiency, in some cases.

    Likewise for your claim that 70% of a building's energy demand is thermal. It seems reasonable but I wish you had some sources to back up (anything...) you've said here.

    As far as Rube Goldberg goes, it seems equally complicated to have a solar thermal heating system plus a solar thermal cooling system vs one photovoltaic generator to run everything.

    Finally, are solar thermal costs falling according to any type of "Moore's Law"? No they aren't, but SPV costs are.

    All in all, it was an interesting article, but the analysis is shallow and I'm sure some of the statistics are wrong.
    Apr 22, 2015. 04:24 PM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 hours a day the norm for Netflix users [View news story]
    I hardly know any 20-30-year-olds who pay for cable these days. I think the general feeling is, "Make my shows available on Netflix or Hulu or I'm going to pirate it. Or watch it on Youtube."

    It's not just about saving money, it's also about convenience.
    Apr 18, 2015. 01:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solar Industry Q4 Round Up: The Industry Matures [View article]
    Yep, great article. I think we must be at a bottom for the industry. IIR JA Solar made ~$25M in profit but its market cap is only about $450M. Quarterly profit, alone, should be pushing these stocks higher, quickly.
    Mar 15, 2015. 01:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Impact Of SRP's New Pricing Plan On Residential Solar And SolarCity [View article]
    I understand that Jim, but look at the document that "Dr. Feelgood" posted. SRP's justification for hitting solar and only solar customers with a $50/mo fee is that some vacation homes are not using their grid connections full time. Thus, it would be unfair to hit all customers with a $50/mo fee.

    But doesn't that reasoning fall apart, considering that solar homes also rely on grid connections for just a fraction of the time? I really think that SRP is barking up the wrong tree with the "vacation home" line of attack.
    Mar 8, 2015. 05:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Impact Of SRP's New Pricing Plan On Residential Solar And SolarCity [View article]
    Jim, I understand the situation pretty well due to a background in electrical engineering. PV panels produce 110V from the inverter and the energy is consumed locally. Compare to a power plant that produces 25 kV for transmission over long distances. It takes a LOT of infrastructure to step down the voltage and deliver electricity from the plant to every customer.
    Mar 7, 2015. 11:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Impact Of SRP's New Pricing Plan On Residential Solar And SolarCity [View article]
    Yeah, that's true for sure. But I'm talking about their justification for going with straight-fixed-variable rate.
    Mar 6, 2015. 02:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Impact Of SRP's New Pricing Plan On Residential Solar And SolarCity [View article]
    Thanks for the link.

    My interpretation-- SRP says that solar customers place greater demands on the grid than regular customers, and they use vacation homes to make their case. I.e. vacation-homeowners shouldn't pay a fixed $50/mo since they are away for some months.

    Yet there are no vacation homes with solar? Solar homes are always using the grid? I think the "vacation home" reasoning is pretty weak and they are going to get torn apart in court.

    Solar generation doesn't require all the step-down transformer stations, etc that power plant generators require. So I think it's pretty clear that a solar home places less demand on the grid than the average customer.
    Mar 6, 2015. 01:45 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Impact Of SRP's New Pricing Plan On Residential Solar And SolarCity [View article]
    If $50/month accurately reflects the grid maintenance costs, then the fair approach would be to charge ALL customers a flat $50/mo with an additional charge for electric consumption on top of that. Customers who pay less than about $60 or $70/month won't like that approach, but it's the only fair way.

    I also find it hard to believe that grid maintenance costs account for 42% of SRP's expenses.

    Doesn't matter much for the growth of solar power in the long run. Look what's happening in Hawaii...
    Mar 6, 2015. 11:58 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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