U.S. Treasury Yields Can Rise Further [View article]
Thank you for your comment.
In January the German jobless rate declined to 6.8%, the lowest level in 20 years. Unemployment fell for the second straight month with the job market seeing the biggest fall in a year. ECB is willing to buy “unlimited bonds”, if necessary. It should not be the case. European yields are falling and money is returning to the peripheral countries. Financial institutions have already repaid 141 billion euro of the 489 billion euro received from the first LTRO. Core problems have not been resolved, but the worst is over for now.
The Italian elections have produced some surprises and a market correction is possible over the short-term. However, the longer-term trend stays positive for the European currency. In the past 40 years, eur/usd trends have lasted for 20/30% from the bottom, which in this case is 1.20.
In the US, housing has bottomed and should find new highs within 3/5 years from the lows (2010), if history repeats itself. Then, a vast majority of the S&P 500 companies have exceeded consensus estimates. Overall, growth is more than 5.0%, compared to 1.4% in the third quarter of 2012.
Signs of employment acceleration are growing. In January, the ISM employment indexes reported 57.1%, the highest level since 2006 when the private sector was producing more than 200,000 positions a month. Job expansion should enhance household confidence and improve consumption.
The unemployment rates can decline toward 7.0% and then rise again for the final top. Since 1948, the unemployment rate had two bullish cycles (1952/61, 1969/1982). Movements lasted for 9/13 years and extended 63%/67% top/bottom. They all climbed in three distinct waves before collapsing. Declines prior to the final wave-up have continued for four (1975-1979) and two (1958-1960). Unemployment started in 2000. It topped in 2003, bottomed in 2007 and completed the second wave in 2009. A third and final wave is still missing. It could be expected between 2013/2014, if history repeats itself.
S&P 500 Index: Will It Correct To 1,500? [View article]
U.S. Treasury Yields Can Rise Further [View article]
In January the German jobless rate declined to 6.8%, the lowest level in 20 years. Unemployment fell for the second straight month with the job market seeing the biggest fall in a year. ECB is willing to buy “unlimited bonds”, if necessary. It should not be the case. European yields are falling and money is returning to the peripheral countries. Financial institutions have already repaid 141 billion euro of the 489 billion euro received from the first LTRO. Core problems have not been resolved, but the worst is over for now.
The Italian elections have produced some surprises and a market correction is possible over the short-term. However, the longer-term trend stays positive for the European currency. In the past 40 years, eur/usd trends have lasted for 20/30% from the bottom, which in this case is 1.20.
In the US, housing has bottomed and should find new highs within 3/5 years from the lows (2010), if history repeats itself. Then, a vast majority of the S&P 500 companies have exceeded consensus estimates. Overall, growth is more than 5.0%, compared to 1.4% in the third quarter of 2012.
Signs of employment acceleration are growing. In January, the ISM employment indexes reported 57.1%, the highest level since 2006 when the private sector was producing more than 200,000 positions a month. Job expansion should enhance household confidence and improve consumption.
The unemployment rates can decline toward 7.0% and then rise again for the final top. Since 1948, the unemployment rate had two bullish cycles (1952/61, 1969/1982). Movements lasted for 9/13 years and extended 63%/67% top/bottom. They all climbed in three distinct waves before collapsing. Declines prior to the final wave-up have continued for four (1975-1979) and two (1958-1960). Unemployment started in 2000. It topped in 2003, bottomed in 2007 and completed the second wave in 2009. A third and final wave is still missing. It could be expected between 2013/2014, if history repeats itself.
Fade This Rally [View article]
Bond prices are correcting and the decline could last for 3/6 months.
Yes, S&P 500 could target 1500 and US dollar index might fall to 78/76 this year.
In 2013, The U.S. Dollar Will Decline Further [View article]
In 2013, The U.S. Dollar Will Decline Further [View article]
The ECB will buy unlimited bonds, if necessary.
EURUSD lost only 20% when the eurozone was about to break apart. It should result in low growth/high inflation numbers.
Why GB should leave the E.U.?
In 2013, The U.S. Dollar Will Decline Further [View article]
Then, it can uptrend again for 5-7 years, if history repeats itself.
Will An Imminent Cliff Deal Push Stocks Higher? [View article]
Is It Too Late To Get Into The Housing Rebound? Part Two [View article]
However, housing is just bottoming out. Since 1969, new highs were reached after 3/5 years from the bottom (2010?).
Bull moves have then lasted for about 10 years (1964/1974, 1980/1989) and have extended for 55%/60% top/bottom.
Will Stocks Rally In December? [View article]
At 1490, there is another good resistance. However, in the past, January has been another very good month for stocks.
Thank you for the links.
Will Stocks Rally In December? [View article]
Will Stocks Rally In December? [View article]
However, the European crisis is discounted for now. There is hope a solution will be founded soon in the US.
Will Stocks Rally In December? [View article]
It depends on what?
The U.S. Dollar Can Decline Against The Canadian Dollar [View article]
The US dollar should trend lower against majors, until commodity prices will trend higher.
Thank you for your comment.
EUR/USD: Lower Short-Term, Higher Long-Term? [View article]
Thank you.
Quantitative Easing 3 Should Work [View article]
However, longer-term, once the huge deficit is reduced, the U.S. dollar could rise 40%-60% from the lows, if history repeats itself.
It could be linked to a top in commodity prices. It happened in 1980 and 1995.