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Angelo Airaghi

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  • U.S. Unemployment Rate: Will It Bottom Out In 2014? [View article]
    Thanks for all the comments.
    Dec 26 03:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Dollar Could Decline Again [View article]
    Good point. Accordingly to long-term cycles, the EUR/USD could target the highs again. Then, the US dollar has the potentiality to increase for 5/7 years.
    Nov 27 04:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Dollar Could Decline Again [View article]
    Yes, deflation could be a challenge. Thank you for the article’s idea.
    Nov 25 10:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The U.S. Dollar Oversold? [View article]
    Until the huge deficit is reduced, the US dollar could increase short-term, but then decline again.

    Momentum does not seem to pick-up and unemployment could bottom next year.
    Oct 28 06:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Stocks: Short-Term Rebound? [View article]
    Yes, as strong resistance at 1720/40 for the S&P 500 index.
    Oct 7 10:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Stocks: Short-Term Rebound? [View article]
    Thank you.

    S&P 500 index, mId-Sep, RSI
    Oct 7 10:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Japanese Yen Bottom Out? [View article]
    He could change the economy around.
    Jul 17 12:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Index: Will It Correct To 1,500? [View article]
    The US bond boom, like all other booms, will bust. The question is: “When will it do it?”
    Apr 23 10:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Treasury Yields Can Rise Further [View article]
    Thank you for your comment.

    In January the German jobless rate declined to 6.8%, the lowest level in 20 years. Unemployment fell for the second straight month with the job market seeing the biggest fall in a year. ECB is willing to buy “unlimited bonds”, if necessary. It should not be the case. European yields are falling and money is returning to the peripheral countries. Financial institutions have already repaid 141 billion euro of the 489 billion euro received from the first LTRO. Core problems have not been resolved, but the worst is over for now.

    The Italian elections have produced some surprises and a market correction is possible over the short-term. However, the longer-term trend stays positive for the European currency. In the past 40 years, eur/usd trends have lasted for 20/30% from the bottom, which in this case is 1.20.

    In the US, housing has bottomed and should find new highs within 3/5 years from the lows (2010), if history repeats itself. Then, a vast majority of the S&P 500 companies have exceeded consensus estimates. Overall, growth is more than 5.0%, compared to 1.4% in the third quarter of 2012.

    Signs of employment acceleration are growing. In January, the ISM employment indexes reported 57.1%, the highest level since 2006 when the private sector was producing more than 200,000 positions a month. Job expansion should enhance household confidence and improve consumption.

    The unemployment rates can decline toward 7.0% and then rise again for the final top. Since 1948, the unemployment rate had two bullish cycles (1952/61, 1969/1982). Movements lasted for 9/13 years and extended 63%/67% top/bottom. They all climbed in three distinct waves before collapsing. Declines prior to the final wave-up have continued for four (1975-1979) and two (1958-1960). Unemployment started in 2000. It topped in 2003, bottomed in 2007 and completed the second wave in 2009. A third and final wave is still missing. It could be expected between 2013/2014, if history repeats itself.
    Feb 27 02:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fade This Rally [View article]
    Apparently, the uptrend is intact for now.

    Bond prices are correcting and the decline could last for 3/6 months.

    Yes, S&P 500 could target 1500 and US dollar index might fall to 78/76 this year.
    Jan 4 11:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In 2013, The U.S. Dollar Will Decline Further [View article]
    It should.
    Dec 25 04:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In 2013, The U.S. Dollar Will Decline Further [View article]
    Risks are still there, but the worst should be over for Europe.

    The ECB will buy unlimited bonds, if necessary.

    EURUSD lost only 20% when the eurozone was about to break apart. It should result in low growth/high inflation numbers.

    Why GB should leave the E.U.?
    Dec 25 04:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In 2013, The U.S. Dollar Will Decline Further [View article]
    The U.S. dollar should remain weak until the huge deficit is reduced.

    Then, it can uptrend again for 5-7 years, if history repeats itself.
    Dec 25 04:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will An Imminent Cliff Deal Push Stocks Higher? [View article]
    Yes, the S&P 500 index is targeting 1460/1500.
    Dec 18 10:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Too Late To Get Into The Housing Rebound? Part Two [View article]
    Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

    However, housing is just bottoming out. Since 1969, new highs were reached after 3/5 years from the bottom (2010?).

    Bull moves have then lasted for about 10 years (1964/1974, 1980/1989) and have extended for 55%/60% top/bottom.
    Dec 11 12:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment