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Another Joe

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  • Apple: Bottom Target Hit, And New All-Time Highs Coming [View article]
    I could buy the other way around to a point, but this is all backwards. The fundamentals are already priced into the TA, giving TA the decided edge in the short-term. FA helps when there isn't enough data for clear TA and for making macro-investing decisions. Trading on it though? No way.
    Nov 26, 2012. 11:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Bottom Target Hit, And New All-Time Highs Coming [View article]
    Keep 'em coming Mr Gilburt. Your track record defends you quite adequately, if gainsayers would only take the time to do some honest research.
    Thanks for this piece. It'll give fruit lovers something to contemplate.
    Nov 26, 2012. 10:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Bottom Target Hit, And New All-Time Highs Coming [View article]
    What kind of silly comment is that?
    Let's just be honest here. Look at Avi's track record. Nobody's perfect, and he admitted that he's struggled with metals. But he also provided some great calls and helped a lot of people make some excellent profits. His call of the drop in metals last Feb was amazing, saving and making cash for those who were willing to listen.
    Watch Apple. See what it does. Analyse it. Then, if you have something intelligent to add, help readers understand. But puhleeze, drop the rhetoric.
    Nov 26, 2012. 10:27 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 324 Years Of The Gold-To-Silver Ratio And $195 Silver [View article]
    The inflation adjusted gold value Altucher presents is silly. Gold was considered to be money up until 1971, so what was it compared to in order to adjust it for inflation for the previous 100 years? What's his CPI referent?
    We know that Roosevelt devalued the dollar against gold just after appropriating bullion from the US populace. Of course, that was one of the biggest rippoffs and wealth consolidation moves of US history. The greatest has happened since 1971.
    Also, it's quite disengenuous to compare gold's high with current prices adjusted for inflation and act as if gold has dropped in value. Use a 40 year scale or a 20 year scale and you get a completely different comparison between the S&P and gold. Any real comparison can't really go beyond 40 years because that was when the dollar and gold were finally (officially) disjoined.
    Oct 23, 2012. 02:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commitment Of Traders Report 10th September 2012 [View instapost]
    Great analysis Colchure!! Thanks. It's tough for goldbugs to think of anything but "up." This helps bring things into perspective though.
    Sep 10, 2012. 12:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sandstorm Gold: From Silver Streaming To Streams Of Gold [View article]
    Thank you sustainlife,
    I was disappointed to see the stock drop recently, but these things happen. It would be wonderful to see them paying a dividend to shareholders. The way it's gone up the last couple of years certainly outstips dividend value though. Hopefully we'll see more of the same.
    Aug 25, 2012. 12:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sandstorm Gold: From Silver Streaming To Streams Of Gold [View article]
    Great points. This is one of the things that intrigued me about the company so much AgAu$$. By contract, if gold reaches low enough prices, they are not obligated to buy. Furthermore, if the mining company does not provide, then they are to get reimbursed, plus interest.
    Obviously you can't get blood from a turnip. But these point to a clever means of avoiding losses due to a downturn. Sure, profits would be stripped, but losses should be controlled well in such a scenario.
    Having said that, metals are spiking as I write. Following this spike, we may see a strong pullback as early as this week, but most likely by the end of Sept. When that happens, I'd expect SAND to drop a bit and perhaps offer some nicer entry opportunities. Just IMO...
    Aug 21, 2012. 10:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Manipulation: CFT Drops Probe [View article]
    It's usually best to let the dust settle on these sorts of claims before jumping on the bandwaggon. Apparently Commissioner Chilton responded to this misinformation.
    "The Financial Times report related to silver is not only premature, but inaccurate in several respects...
    I continue to believe, consistent with my previous statements to which you referred, and based upon information from the public, that there have been devious efforts related to moving the price of silver. Incidentally, I also believe there have been silver and gold market anomalies outside of the silver investigate window that have raised, and continue to raise, market concerns."
    Courtesy of the Silver Doctors...
    Aug 6, 2012. 02:47 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sandstorm Gold: From Silver Streaming To Streams Of Gold [View article]
    I should have just sent you my article and had you expand on it and post it Alex. Nice response. :)
    Jul 18, 2012. 10:38 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sandstorm Gold: From Silver Streaming To Streams Of Gold [View article]
    Hi Endeavor,

    Thanks for your comments. Though I didn't touch on this in the article (maybe should have), it has been acknowledged, with two aspects to the answer.

    The first is that there has been some increase in miners holding or processing their own "by products" since silver's price has increased. A case I'm familiar with is a Freeport-McMoRan copper mine in eastern AZ. A portion of a current project has proven to have rich silver deposits, so they've shut down mining in that area until they can set up for silver extraction. I don't think SLW is in on that one. By the way, the technique they use for leaching the copper out and collecting it is something else.

    I would assume the same could be said of gold, though I haven't read the same sort of discussion regarding that side of it. But it would make sense, if they could justify the expense. This brings us to the second.

    For some of these companies, they're focused on a certain market. To bring more expertise and equipment to the expense isn't at the top of their list of priorities. It takes specialized equipment to extract the trace amounts of gold present. Then Sandstorm Gold comes along and says, "Hey, let us buy the equipment and pay startup costs. In return we'll buy all the gold from you at a set price." As long as the miner keeps their end of the bargain, it's pretty much gravy for them.

    It seems there's not a "one size fits all" way to approach this. And, perhaps that's another reason that streamers will have a place. Notice tha they don't have 100 mines. They just have a few. But a few seems to be enough.

    Great thoughts Endeavor. Thanks again.
    Jul 16, 2012. 10:40 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sandstorm Gold: From Silver Streaming To Streams Of Gold [View article]
    Thanks Chancer,

    As this article focused on Sandstorm Gold, I didn't bring in much of anything of the parent company. However, your point is well taken and helpful. Thank you for pointing this out. Alex mentions it as well.

    The reverse split was a positive move, IMHO, for many of the reasons Alex helpfully pointed out.
    Jul 16, 2012. 12:48 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sandstorm Gold: From Silver Streaming To Streams Of Gold [View article]
    Thanks udisgv.

    "rough jewell" is an apt description. :)
    Jul 16, 2012. 10:54 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver One Year After The Peak: On The Brink Of The Next Big Move [View article]
    Good article. Thanks for posting it.
    I have a question: How applicable is this double top in light of how far the dollar's fallen in the past 30 years? For instance, using the Westegg inflation calculator, $50 in 1980 was $130 in 2010. Of course, I don't know which CPI formula they're using. If it's the current one, then that figure should be adjusted much higher. :)
    Apr 29, 2012. 09:05 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do You Think That Gold And Silver Are Broken? [View article]
    No question as far as I'm concerned. But, for EW the trader, do the manipulatoins fit the wave patterns? It appears that they do.
    Apr 24, 2012. 02:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do You Think That Gold And Silver Are Broken? [View article]
    Hi smashdeb,
    I can sympathize with what I perceive as an ongoing frustration for precious metal investors. Movements don't seem to have rhyme or reason to them.
    As for the CME, EW certainly doesn't deal with that. It's a tertiary issue from an EW perpective, though one it would certainly be nice to clear up. And when it comes to market manipulation, there is great disunity in regard to degrees. Basically, there is manipulation in every market. But the current display of massive movements that later seem to be reflected in the COT as JP Morgan, Deutche Bank as well as Jeffries and others to a lesser degree, makes for some very disturbing implications in the short-term movements and rate of ascent. You've likely kept up with GATA's efforts to expose this, so I won't bore you with details. If you haven't, their site is full of great info.
    But how does such manipulation fit with EW? Is it an "either/or" argument? I've had to grapple with this in recent months as I've watched Avi's work. To be sure, nobody is right all the time. And, from my experience, neither technical nor fundamental analysts have been very successful at charting precious metals' short-term movements, not to mention intraday action. So, when I saw Avi post some expectations that turned out to be pretty accurate, I started challenging him in regard to how all this fit in.
    In order to challenge him, I needed to understand what EW really was. Not that I understand it well now, but I've gained some perspective through my studies. The result? The waves are certainly uncanny. Minor movements can be most diffcult, especially in the metals, which Avi admits. But the setups for larger movements become clear as they approach. Timing is tough, but that's the nature of the markets.
    Here's what's been amazing though. Market manipulation seems to fit within the wave pattern. For instance, the current wave pattern may be calling for a new low within the next week. A couple of days later the London market gets slammed or JP Morgan dumps a pile of metals on the NY market. Is that because they use sentiment studies similar to EW to decide the best times to move the market? I have no clue. But what I have learned is that the movements fit within the patterns of the waves, regardless of what the headlines say. The depth of movements may be affected by some degree by manipulation. But the movements themselves fit into the EW pattern. I'd recommend heeding this article and investing accordingly. But, even if you don't, watch the numbers closely and see how it pans out. Then compare the COTs. Of course, you could try Avi's service for a bit and see what you think as well. :)
    I apologize for the long answer. Obviously this is something I've been digging into for a bit now. I hope that helps.
    Apr 23, 2012. 03:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment