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  • Silver One Year After The Peak: On The Brink Of The Next Big Move [View article]
    Good article. Thanks for posting it.
    I have a question: How applicable is this double top in light of how far the dollar's fallen in the past 30 years? For instance, using the Westegg inflation calculator, $50 in 1980 was $130 in 2010. Of course, I don't know which CPI formula they're using. If it's the current one, then that figure should be adjusted much higher. :)
    Apr 29, 2012. 09:05 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do You Think That Gold And Silver Are Broken? [View article]
    No question as far as I'm concerned. But, for EW the trader, do the manipulatoins fit the wave patterns? It appears that they do.
    Apr 24, 2012. 02:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do You Think That Gold And Silver Are Broken? [View article]
    Hi smashdeb,
    I can sympathize with what I perceive as an ongoing frustration for precious metal investors. Movements don't seem to have rhyme or reason to them.
    As for the CME, EW certainly doesn't deal with that. It's a tertiary issue from an EW perpective, though one it would certainly be nice to clear up. And when it comes to market manipulation, there is great disunity in regard to degrees. Basically, there is manipulation in every market. But the current display of massive movements that later seem to be reflected in the COT as JP Morgan, Deutche Bank as well as Jeffries and others to a lesser degree, makes for some very disturbing implications in the short-term movements and rate of ascent. You've likely kept up with GATA's efforts to expose this, so I won't bore you with details. If you haven't, their site is full of great info.
    But how does such manipulation fit with EW? Is it an "either/or" argument? I've had to grapple with this in recent months as I've watched Avi's work. To be sure, nobody is right all the time. And, from my experience, neither technical nor fundamental analysts have been very successful at charting precious metals' short-term movements, not to mention intraday action. So, when I saw Avi post some expectations that turned out to be pretty accurate, I started challenging him in regard to how all this fit in.
    In order to challenge him, I needed to understand what EW really was. Not that I understand it well now, but I've gained some perspective through my studies. The result? The waves are certainly uncanny. Minor movements can be most diffcult, especially in the metals, which Avi admits. But the setups for larger movements become clear as they approach. Timing is tough, but that's the nature of the markets.
    Here's what's been amazing though. Market manipulation seems to fit within the wave pattern. For instance, the current wave pattern may be calling for a new low within the next week. A couple of days later the London market gets slammed or JP Morgan dumps a pile of metals on the NY market. Is that because they use sentiment studies similar to EW to decide the best times to move the market? I have no clue. But what I have learned is that the movements fit within the patterns of the waves, regardless of what the headlines say. The depth of movements may be affected by some degree by manipulation. But the movements themselves fit into the EW pattern. I'd recommend heeding this article and investing accordingly. But, even if you don't, watch the numbers closely and see how it pans out. Then compare the COTs. Of course, you could try Avi's service for a bit and see what you think as well. :)
    I apologize for the long answer. Obviously this is something I've been digging into for a bit now. I hope that helps.
    Apr 23, 2012. 03:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Just Took One On The Chin From The New Indian Taxes [View article]
    Hi David,
    Thanks for responding. I appreciate the interaction, regardless of whether we agree or not.
    You defeinitely got me all wrong. The euro is a wreck that just won't admit it; like driving off a bridge but not landing yet. It's a gonner.
    I read another guy the other day who said that austerity and bailouts are working. That was his reasoning why gold would go down. If he was right about the euro, I might agree with him. But his reasoning is severly flawed. And this is part of the reason metals will go up. As confidence in the euro wanes, people will flock to gold; especially in light of the dollars growing disfavor.
    China's gold demand isn't waning a bit. And I did a little hunting around regarding India last night. There has been a reduction, but there's been such a reaction that the likelyhood of it holding is minimal. And, as Ven pointed out, concessions have already been made, in unprecedented ways.
    And it's precisely because of economic turmoil in the US that prices will continue to increase. The dollar would be in just as bad shape as the euro, if it weren't for its world reserve status and petrodollars. But thats waning as well, to the ultimate demize of greenbacks. If you're right about markets pulling back, then that's ultimately bullish for gold too.
    I'm not a permabull. When I think gold's reached a bubble I'll kiss all my little golden friends goodbye and thank them for their service. But all of these factors point to rising precious metals. And we haven't even gotten technical yet.
    Perhaps part of the problem is that so many analysts expect a one way ticket with no deviation. But bull markets have pullbacks. A simple examination of the gold chart during the late 70s shows some major swings, the likes of which we haven't seen yet. This current consolidation is nearing its end, will be followed by a spike, a consolidation, a spike, rinse and repeat until everyone and their brother is advising gold, at any price.
    Enjoy the ride. Buy the dips.
    Apr 3, 2012. 10:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Just Took One On The Chin From The New Indian Taxes [View article]
    David, it seems apparent that you're about to miss out on a great ride. See ya on the other side.
    Apr 3, 2012. 01:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver And Gold: Low Risk Opportunity [View article]
    Once and for all? No way. That takes out the fun of buying the dips.
    Apr 2, 2012. 01:22 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver And Gold: Low Risk Opportunity [View article]
    You're right, Ven. But I honestly don't think we'll see that in our generation without an incredibly volatile washing out. Call it a revolution if you will; but it'll have to be so massive as to render the current system unrecognizable. I wish it would happen, but hold no such expectations. Instead, we adapt as best we can according to the informatin we're able to glean. As is always the case, the contrarians will be the only ones that rise above the circumstances (while the elite manipulate said circumstances).
    Apr 2, 2012. 01:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Has The Secular Gold Bull Market Ended? [View article]
    Jeff Clark posted an inteview recently in which he interviewed a jeweler in India. The gist of it was that demand continues unabated and supply isn't an issue yet. What he did note, was that the purity of the gold used for much of their jewelry is being reduced.
    "Probably the biggest change we face, though, is that customers are more focused on getting lightweight jewelry, or 14-carat gold instead of 18-carat gold. This is due to the high gold price. This adjustment, however, has not affected the desire to own gold.
    The bottom line is that the rise in the gold price has not hampered demand."
    He also noted a rise in bullion demand, FWIW.
    Apr 1, 2012. 04:03 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver And Gold: Low Risk Opportunity [View article]
    For the record, during the Roosevelt era many who owned a lot of gold sent it out of the country. Hoards are still being discovered on occasion.
    I don't think the OWS crowd is focused enough to know where to walk, really. As Peter Schiff pointed out, they're protesting some of the right things, but in the wrong place. Their focus was on the elite, which is legitimate, but they failed to see the marriage with politics that's really at the core of the problem. And their "down with capitalism" rant revealed incredible ignorance in what capitalism really is, as well as missing the root of the problem.
    The people won't revolt until/unless their foodstamps and other social programs are taken away.... Either that or some miracle of sweeping lucidity.
    Apr 1, 2012. 03:49 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bernanke's Problem With The Gold Standard [View article]
    While it's true that the FED uses a 2% ratio as their rule, it's equally true that their ruler is manufactured according to their own specs, departing from any veritable rules of mathematics. The article was good. It offers much food for thought and exposes some problems inherent in the current system. But it appears to accept the FED's doctored inflation rate as having some sort of semblance of reality.
    A one-two punch would have included that and sovereign debt; though perhaps that's better fodder for another article.
    Apr 1, 2012. 10:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bernanke's Problem With The Gold Standard [View article]
    MacArthur told America to send its best capitalists and missionaries to Japan. We sent Keynesians.
    Apr 1, 2012. 10:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IMF Threatens To Cut Off Greece If €12 Billion Of Austerity Isn't Made In 3 Months [View article]
    Thanks Yohay,
    The junkie keeps the line going to the druggie... everything is juuusst fffiiiiiinnnne; until it's not.
    The withdrawal from the ECB fix will hurt worse than current austerity, but certainly should at least offer a possibility of future health.
    Mar 24, 2012. 10:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The United States Has Two Choices: Depression Or Bankruptcy [View article]
    First step is knowing.
    Now take action as you see fit.
    Mar 24, 2012. 08:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fundamentals, Sentiment And Technicals Are All Bullish For Gold [View article]
    Yep... watch for the golden bubble to pop. It might coincide with some spectacular deflation.
    Mar 16, 2012. 12:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fundamentals, Sentiment And Technicals Are All Bullish For Gold [View article]
    Howdy Bird-man,

    Better too early than too late, don't you think? Very few call the bottom, or the top. I think Simit had some good points to consider. Whether it drops into the 1500s or not, even you expect it to shoot up past current levels. No?
    Mar 15, 2012. 05:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment