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Another Joe

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  • Silver And Gold: Low Risk Opportunity [View article]
    For the record, during the Roosevelt era many who owned a lot of gold sent it out of the country. Hoards are still being discovered on occasion.
    I don't think the OWS crowd is focused enough to know where to walk, really. As Peter Schiff pointed out, they're protesting some of the right things, but in the wrong place. Their focus was on the elite, which is legitimate, but they failed to see the marriage with politics that's really at the core of the problem. And their "down with capitalism" rant revealed incredible ignorance in what capitalism really is, as well as missing the root of the problem.
    The people won't revolt until/unless their foodstamps and other social programs are taken away.... Either that or some miracle of sweeping lucidity.
    Apr 1, 2012. 03:49 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bitcoin: I Hate To Say I Told You So... But I Told You So [View article]
    I think Bitcoin, or something like it, is here to stay. It's not a replacement for gold. It's not a replacement for the dollar. It's an international digital currency with safeguards to keep it from being inflated through irresponsible printing.
    Confidence in the dollar is illusory, at best, foolishly ignorant at worst. The greenback is one of the most insidious Ponzi-schemes ever foisted on any civilization. Maybe I should cash Bitcoin into euros so I can deposit them in Cyprus...
    Apr 10, 2013. 05:27 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver One Year After The Peak: On The Brink Of The Next Big Move [View article]
    Good article. Thanks for posting it.
    I have a question: How applicable is this double top in light of how far the dollar's fallen in the past 30 years? For instance, using the Westegg inflation calculator, $50 in 1980 was $130 in 2010. Of course, I don't know which CPI formula they're using. If it's the current one, then that figure should be adjusted much higher. :)
    Apr 29, 2012. 09:05 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Myths Of The Silver / Gold Ratio: Don't Buy Into It [View article]
    Ouch, kinda brutal Richard. It helps people think, but may be a bit misleading. Are you saying the ratio has nothing to do with prices?
    More study will reveal that current production is actually 8 to 1. Furthermore, because of consumption, it's likely that available silver is below 5/1 today. Regardless of how much crustal distribution affects prices, these numbers are a far cry from the market's current ratio of 51/1.
    Mar 14, 2012. 04:05 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver: Near-Term Bullishness Possible, But Lower Levels Still Likely [View article]
    I totally understand where you're coming form SIlver Bog. I've never been a trader. Basically, I've just been a gold bug for quite a while, and have done some writing on the topic. And I have some pretty good macroeconomic understanding. Of course, when you're writing about metals, you're focused on geopolitical and socioeconomic issues all the time.

    One thing that constantly bugged me though was that the market just didn't seem to be willing to do what it "ought" to do in the time frame that it really seemed like it "ought" to.

    I've studied mob mentality quite a bit, and knew that it must have something to do with it. And I knew that eventually this would cause a massive bubble in the markets. But I had no idea there was a discernible and consistent pattern to it.

    I run across this Avi character writing about silver from a TA perspective and I'm aghast. Really? Like, you really think you can track this finicky and temperamental beast with TA. Good luck!! And I told him so.

    But it kept nagging at me that I certainly had no explanation for what I had observed in the market. What if someone really was able to track sentiment? That really was my first good intro to TA. Of course, that doesn't mean I've learned to be a good trader. It's been a long journey for me. But I've learned a lot and seem to be gaining, slowly but surely.

    I think the hard part for most of us is that we just can't admit that the short-term movements that we can't explain CAN be explained via another perspective. We find it threatening. Bridging that gap can be tough. In my case, however, I found it complementary to what I was observing. It's been a very interesting journey.

    And, funnily enough, I still see manipulation in the metals markets. But it's no longer a focus of mine at all. In fact, I don't care much now, though I'm still convinced it's there. I never mention it in my writing any longer, as I think it's a distraction. And knowing does absolutely no good for trading. I do think it's one of many good reasons to hoard them though. :o)

    This is more of a battle of the heart than most are willing to admit. It's hard to come to grips with the idea that you've been wrong about something vital in your life for a very long time. That's one of the most humbling experiences any of us can go through. But it's better to be right than continuing trying to prove it when you're not.
    Feb 10, 2013. 04:08 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Manipulation: CFT Drops Probe [View article]
    It's usually best to let the dust settle on these sorts of claims before jumping on the bandwaggon. Apparently Commissioner Chilton responded to this misinformation.
    "The Financial Times report related to silver is not only premature, but inaccurate in several respects...
    I continue to believe, consistent with my previous statements to which you referred, and based upon information from the public, that there have been devious efforts related to moving the price of silver. Incidentally, I also believe there have been silver and gold market anomalies outside of the silver investigate window that have raised, and continue to raise, market concerns."
    Courtesy of the Silver Doctors...
    Aug 6, 2012. 02:47 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Update: Correction Will Be Completed Shortly [View article]
    Thanks for keeping us thinking Avi. Good stuff.

    Wednesday's selloff was more than simply "increased volume." At 100,000 contracts, is was gargantuan. As comparison, Thursday was still very hefty, but only 55,000.
    Before completely dismissing manipulation, when a massive position is repeatedly sold off at 10 am EST on a Wednesday (meaning reports have a full week to get watered down), it's enough to at least cause someone to scratch their head and wonder what's up.
    What keeps these guys from watching the same indicators you do and use them to their advantage?

    Keep up the good work Avi. A lot of us are learning from you. I look forward to your entries.

    Another Joe
    Mar 4, 2012. 09:59 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Thrown Overboard [View article]
    Thanks for the article GI.
    I wouldn't read too much into Bernanke's affect on the gold market. After sitting relatively flat for a bit, it's time for some volatility to return to precious metals. The consolidation is over. Now it's time for fence riders to get shaken out before the next run. Expect some movements up and down short-term, before the next push.
    This could be the last great opportunity to buy.
    Mar 1, 2012. 12:09 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver: Lower Levels Still Ahead Despite High Premiums [View article]
    I agree with you Mark. Avi and I agreed on what's happening in regards to the physical market, but tend to disagree on what the "real" price is.
    This is understandable, since his work revolves around analyzing the markets for the purpose of trading, and I tend to focus on the physical market. There is a sense in which it seems like the paper market is leading the physical by the nose currently though. And I follow his work to try to position myself short/mid-term. Nobody's better at analyzing these movements than Avi.
    If we get a little more push, it might be enough to absorb the premiums - either that or time. What will be very interesting will be to see how the physical will respond if/when we get the next drop. The only way premiums can come down with the price would be if holders of silver are willing to dump their inventory. Some will, but enough to meet demand? I tend to doubt it.
    May 5, 2013. 11:40 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Bottom Target Hit, And New All-Time Highs Coming [View article]
    What kind of silly comment is that?
    Let's just be honest here. Look at Avi's track record. Nobody's perfect, and he admitted that he's struggled with metals. But he also provided some great calls and helped a lot of people make some excellent profits. His call of the drop in metals last Feb was amazing, saving and making cash for those who were willing to listen.
    Watch Apple. See what it does. Analyse it. Then, if you have something intelligent to add, help readers understand. But puhleeze, drop the rhetoric.
    Nov 26, 2012. 10:27 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sandstorm Gold: From Silver Streaming To Streams Of Gold [View article]
    Hi Endeavor,

    Thanks for your comments. Though I didn't touch on this in the article (maybe should have), it has been acknowledged, with two aspects to the answer.

    The first is that there has been some increase in miners holding or processing their own "by products" since silver's price has increased. A case I'm familiar with is a Freeport-McMoRan copper mine in eastern AZ. A portion of a current project has proven to have rich silver deposits, so they've shut down mining in that area until they can set up for silver extraction. I don't think SLW is in on that one. By the way, the technique they use for leaching the copper out and collecting it is something else.

    I would assume the same could be said of gold, though I haven't read the same sort of discussion regarding that side of it. But it would make sense, if they could justify the expense. This brings us to the second.

    For some of these companies, they're focused on a certain market. To bring more expertise and equipment to the expense isn't at the top of their list of priorities. It takes specialized equipment to extract the trace amounts of gold present. Then Sandstorm Gold comes along and says, "Hey, let us buy the equipment and pay startup costs. In return we'll buy all the gold from you at a set price." As long as the miner keeps their end of the bargain, it's pretty much gravy for them.

    It seems there's not a "one size fits all" way to approach this. And, perhaps that's another reason that streamers will have a place. Notice tha they don't have 100 mines. They just have a few. But a few seems to be enough.

    Great thoughts Endeavor. Thanks again.
    Jul 16, 2012. 10:40 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sandstorm Gold: From Silver Streaming To Streams Of Gold [View article]
    Thanks Chancer,

    As this article focused on Sandstorm Gold, I didn't bring in much of anything of the parent company. However, your point is well taken and helpful. Thank you for pointing this out. Alex mentions it as well.

    The reverse split was a positive move, IMHO, for many of the reasons Alex helpfully pointed out.
    Jul 16, 2012. 12:48 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Update: Correction Will Be Completed Shortly [View article]
    Hey Ed,
    You'll see from my comments and writing that I agree that there is manipulation in the markets. I've discussed this with Avi before as well.
    There's no problem disagreeing. But discrediting Avi without really looking into and attempting to understand what he's saying is a bit disingenuous. He studies hard and has a good track record.
    Frankly, I think both are possible. There's no reason why manipulations in the market cannot fit within waves. I can't know for sure, but the theory certainly seems to fit.
    Avi has challenged my understanding of the markets. I'll disagree with him where I think he's irrefutably wrong, but have gained a great deal of respect for his analysis.
    Disagree if you must. But at least be civil and amiable about it. None of us has it all figured out.

    Mar 11, 2012. 02:43 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Update: Correction Will Be Completed Shortly [View article]
    This may be key, and something people start thinking about. Claiming that manipulation takes place (which I do) is one thing. Predicticting movements is another. I think JPM might subscribe to Avi's newsletters. :)
    Mar 4, 2012. 03:10 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Enthusiam Is Waning Again Despite Surging Before Gold's Recent Peak [View article]
    Interesting research Duru. It's certainly not a traditional angle. It'll be interesting to watch future entries and see how this pans out.
    Mar 4, 2012. 09:27 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment