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Anthony Alfidi  

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  • Is There More Trouble Brewing in China? [View article]
    There's always trouble brewing in China, given the potential for unrest in Xinjiang and Tibet. China's system of state control has been quite effective in keeping a lid on that.

    "The hand's" contention that lack of a middle class is a downer applied up until the announcement of the stimulus. That coming spending wave will be a shot in the arm for the middle class's development.
    Nov 27, 2008. 06:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Obama Make Sense of All This Debt? [View article]
    Debt-fueled bailouts will ensure that massive federal deficits are on the horizon for the forseeable future. Any talk of fiscal discipline is just that: talk.

    Emerginvest may be interested in examining whether Asian and Middle Eastern SWFs will be making more investments closer to home as long as the dollar is strong and U.S. interest rates are low.
    Nov 27, 2008. 06:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Long and Winding Solar Road [View article]
    A solar-powered car barely generates enough energy to move its thin shell and single passenger, let alone an economical load.

    Thin-film solar depends so heavily on rare earth elemnts that it will never be able to scale up to replace other sources, or even displace conventional solar panels.

    Renewable energy investors need to examine technologies that aren't subject to natural resource constraints, like solar thermal and geothermal.
    Nov 27, 2008. 06:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Thursday Outlook: Defiant Market Rally Continues [View article]
    Funny that Eurozone interest rate policy embraces gradualism while China has thrown caution to the winds (and still has plenty of room to cut more). Similarly, China's fiscal stimulus is proportionately much larger than the EU's.

    China is fighting the global recession a lot more forcefully than any other national economy. That's why I'm long FXI.
    Nov 27, 2008. 06:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Hedging Gas Consumption with U.S. Gasoline Fund [View article]
    I'm surprised that UGA has such a deep option chain (more than a half dozen strike prices two months out) for something with such light daily volume. Maybe teaming this thing with USO makes sense, with some covered calls for current income.
    Nov 27, 2008. 05:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Biotech: The Next Big Bubble? [View article]
    Companies that don't have the cash and aren't generating any will likely be forced out of business before they are "forced to get more money." Sequoia Capital said this to its tech portfolio companies, and the same is true across the VC space because funding from institutional investors has dried up. Picking a winning biotech stock is much harder than it looks, and a lot of these "surefire" penny stocks will be forced to liquidate just so their venture backers can auction off their IP.

    Wouldn't a better biotech bet be a large company with lots of products, multiple revenue streams, and the cash on hand to acquire startups? Johnson & Johnson is doing quite well, and Eli Lilly recently acquired Imclone for a hefty premium.
    Nov 27, 2008. 05:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thanksgiving Economic Data: Mostly Turkeys [View article]
    High dividend yields are nice, but consistent dividends are nicer. Higher yields may just be a function of a massive drop in share price instead of earnings quality.

    As for mutual funds, "well-run" and "low-cost" actually are better descriptions of index funds and ETFs. Actively-run funds, even standouts like American Funds and Dodge & Cox, are run primarily for the benefit of the fund management company's shareholders rather than fund investors.
    Nov 27, 2008. 05:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends Are Not Necessarily a Guaranteed Stream of Income [View article]
    Analyzing earnings growth is more useful than analyzing dividend growth, as non-dividend paying companies can still have healthy business models. Buying GM or Ford for the dividends would have been a disatrous rationale.
    Nov 26, 2008. 07:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prisoner's Dilemma: What's a Bank CEO to Do? [View article]
    We will soon see a fifth option: The Fed and Treasury will force banks to lend under the threat of losing their banking charters and denial of further TARP money. This won't really be an option if the next administration sees Choice A being prolonged.
    Nov 26, 2008. 07:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Obama's Dream Team Selection Stabilizes Markets ... For Now [View article]
    The Executive Office of the President will now have no less than three separate bodies dedicated to assessing the economy. Why not just consolidate them to avoid duplication of effort?
    Nov 26, 2008. 07:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Conditions Of New Bull Markets: Monetary Policy [View article]
    Multiple banks pursuing multiple ZIRPs mean a global race to the bottom for currencies. Ceteris paribus, China's consumer stimulation will recycle a lot of money into the Chinese economy. Those savings will stay at home, especially if China reduces its purchases of U.S. debt.
    Nov 26, 2008. 07:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How I'm Playing the Chinese Rate Cut Rally [View article]
    The relative decline of the U.S. economy leaves China uniquely positioned to be the world's future consumer of last resort. Compare China's savings to the U.S.'s debt to see which is the better long-term bet.
    Nov 26, 2008. 07:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thanksgiving Has Been Historically Favorable to Gold Price [View article]
    Let's not forget one of the big drivers of gold's recent rise: massively inflationary bailouts and their attendant debt issues. That yoy gain in the U.S. dollar won't last long when foreign central banks start dumping their devalued dollars.
    Nov 26, 2008. 07:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold In Backwardation? Not So Fast .. [View article]
    The best signal worth considering is the reconstructed M3 at Shadow Statistics. Massive increases in the money supply lead to inflation, which is usually bullish for gold.
    Nov 26, 2008. 07:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Lot to Be Thankful for, Despite It All [View article]
    I'm thankful for the ability to go short and write uncovered calls.

    I'm thankful that gold is severly underpriced.

    I'm thankful that market volatility makes VIX options proftiable.
    Nov 26, 2008. 07:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment