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Anthony Alfidi

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  • Cause for Concern: No Change from the Fed [View article]
    Exercises like this always end badly. Just ask the Japanese. Dr. Roubini is probably correct about this QE funding a dollar carry trade and the Fed knows it. The slightest uptick in rates would be a disaster for the markets.
    Nov 5 11:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Bulls Are Clearly Exhausted [View article]
    The bulls may be exhausted but continued QE is like an intravenous drip full of adrenaline. I'd like to think the market will break downwards at some point. The length and strength of this rally has been absurd.
    Nov 5 11:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    The Fed's inaction supports the bond and housing re-bubbles. No money to be made shorting those for a while. It also means gold will probably continue its steady climb. The only good short idea here might be HYG given the rising junk default rate.
    Nov 5 11:24 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Energy Experts: Why Do They Buy Solars? [View article]
    Energy efficiency and transmission stocks have an intuitive appeal. Analysts need to determine whether they are as constrained by natural resources as solar and wind companies.
    Oct 31 11:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 New Ways to Hedge Inflation with ETFs [View article]
    CPI's asset allocation makes little sense for an inflation-fighting strategy. Majority allocation to short-term government bonds? Gimme a break; fixed income is the first thing to lose purchasing power when inflation ramps up. GRES makes a lot more sense with its heavy commodity focus.
    Oct 31 11:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There an Opportunity in First Solar? [View article]
    First Solar's business model is technologically unsustainable. There is not enough tellurium in the earth's crust to enable FSLR to survive for more than a decade or so. Mark Anthony's synopsis above is absolutely correct. Anybody buying FSLR now with the intent to hold it for more than a couple of years is throwing money away.
    Oct 31 11:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks to Watch as Market Leadership Changes Hands [View article]
    How will AMZN and NFLX keep their growth up if consumer spending stays weak? Style investing has its drawbacks, among them a disregard for fundamentals that affect all styles and asset classes.
    Oct 31 11:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy ETFs in Focus Ahead of Key Earnings Reports [View article]
    Such disappointing earnings from two of the biggest majors says much about their cost of operations. Strong performances from the energy ETFs are no big surprise in the midst of high oil prices.
    Oct 31 11:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Third Quarter Earnings Derby: Stocks Still in the Game [View article]
    How many of those positive earnings surprises were induced by the stimulus? Seeing lots of beats in absolute terms does not mean the economy is out of the woods.
    Oct 31 11:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Friday Roundup: Commodities, Emerging Markets [View article]
    The FDIC shut down some more banks on Friday. Factor that into market spookiness for next week.
    Oct 31 11:17 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market: Spooked Today, But Panic Attack Is Likely Temporary [View article]
    Evidence of deterioration in the fundamentals is easy to find. Start with this weeks' numbers on consumer spending. Then back the Cash for Clunkers effect out of Q3 GDP. Finally, check for more depressing news.
    Oct 31 11:12 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today in Commodities: Vindication as Markets Make Sense [View article]
    Corn might be a good long-term buy as long as the federal government subsidizes ethanol production. Raising cattle will be more expensive long-term due to rising energy prices, rising corn prices (those are related), and reduced land available for grazing.
    Oct 31 10:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "It was a nightmare for me," said Bernard Madoff of SEC probes into his fraudulent dealings, because the scheme was "very basic stuff": this among thousands of pages of a data dump by the agency's inspector general, supporting his earlier report. In a prison interview in June, Madoff expressed shock he got away so many times. (Read the exhibits)  [View news story]
    Bernie gives too much credit to government workers' ability to master the basics of their jobs. Maybe this insight will embolden him to try to slip past his guards at his prison. If he does a good enough job in the prison laundry they might just let him run the joint.
    Oct 31 10:24 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bernie Madoff expressed surprise that SEC investigators didn't check basics like his clearinghouse account: "If you’re looking at a Ponzi scheme, it’s the first thing you do." DealBook has been poring over the 6,157 pages of related records released by the SEC inspector general to find the more interesting ones. (earlier)  [View news story]
    Bernie expresses surprise that government auditors aren't as competent or thorough as those in the private sector. He's obviously never worked for the government.
    Oct 31 10:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equities Update: Averages Tumble as Traders Fret over Economy [View article]
    Consumers spending and sentiment are not exibhiting anywhere near the strength they need to demonstrate for holiday shopping to improve over last year. That means a lot of retail chains are in danger of collapsing and taking down their commercial landlords and the banks that hold those landlords' mortgages. The markets are in for a very rough ride in December and January.
    Oct 31 10:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment