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Anthony DiCarlo  

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  • Record iPhone Shipments May Not Mean Market Share Gains [View article]
    @MB - no comments on your massive miss leading into earnings? I would expect you to circle back and admit you missed mark with your "stagnant growth" prediction. Remember that article? In the comments, you said you were going to "compare notes after the release".

    There was no mention of your hubris leading into earnings? Wonder why.

    No such humility?
    Nov 8, 2014. 04:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Q4 Will Show Just How Stagnant Apple Earnings Really Are [View article]
    @MB - no comments on your massive miss leading into earnings? I would expect you to circle back and admit you missed mark with your "stagnant growth" prediction. You say you were going to "compare notes after the release".

    No such humility?
    Nov 8, 2014. 04:44 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Pay - Nice But Not A Big Deal [View article]
    Pimust: "iPhones with NFC is currently at 0%"--Valid. MB is using 2017 for his numbers. I think most folks will have bought a new phone in the next three years that may include this technology.

    Randal: You are right that the 11.7% no longer applies on the remaining $10-11T in MB's assumptions. The number is closer to 10% if you take out the 46%  marketshare in the US smartphone market. My point is his total revenue number is still half of what the US alone would generate if he had calculated using an accurate installed base of  's ecosystem. Agreed a lot has to change; his assumptions were for 2017. Few of us would argue that little will change when a new product category is upon us. Case in point; NFC is to be included in the new  Watch in early 2015 too.
    Sep 14, 2014. 06:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Pay - Nice But Not A Big Deal [View article]
    You are wrong about your math. You need to remember that the U.S. has 46% of smartphones as  iPhones. That means that 46% of $7 trillion in credit card payments PLUS the remaining 11%  of worldwide smartphone usage. That throws all of your numbers off MB. Using YOUR assumptions,  is 46% of smartphones on $7.1T with NFC is $3.266T; using on only half of purchases = $1.633T. $1.633T * 0.15% = $2.4495B!!! Just from the U.S. for  Alone.

    Then..... factor in the rest of world. and use your silly 11.7%  on the remaining $10T and you've got $1.17T. Using NFC for half of their payments = $585B. $585B * 0.15% = $877.5B in additional Revenue!!!

    That's $3.327B in Rev. Still think that's a rounding error for ?

    Add to the fact that the global share of iPhone will be much higher because this will be the biggest large-scale NFC payment system adopted with vigor and you're missing the boat. I'm guessing you are missing the fact that most people will be adding the $100 extra to jump from 16 gb to 64 gb, the margins on  iPhone 6 and 6 Plus will be much better than any previous generation recently. So....increase in sales of  hardware, higher  iPhone ASPs, higher  gross margins, SUPER high margins on the .15% for  Pay and you are left with a totally misguided investment short thesis.

    MB - Your conclusions are amateur. Stop trying to give investing advice on this  stock because it is wildly misunderstood by you.
    Sep 14, 2014. 01:00 AM | 70 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Pay - Nice But Not A Big Deal [View article]
    You are wrong about your math. You need to remember that the U.S. has 46% of smartphones as iPhones. That means that 46% of $7 trillion in credit card payments PLUS the remaining 11% of worldwide smartphone usage. That throws all of your numbers off MB. Using YOUR assumptions, 46% of smartphones on $7.1T with NFC is $3.266T; using on only half of purchases = $1.633T. $1.633T * 0.15% = $2.4495B!!! Just from the U.S. Alone.

    Then..... factor in the rest of world. and use your silly 11.7% on the remaining $10T and you've got $1.17T. Using NFC for half of their payments = $585B. $585B * 0.15% = $877.5B in additional Revenue!!!

    That's $3.327B in Rev. Still think that's a rounding error?

    Add to the fact that the global share of iPhone will be much higher because this will be the biggest large-scale NFC payment system adopted with vigor and you're missing the boat. I'm guessing you are missing the fact that most people will be adding the $100 extra to jump from 16 gb to 64 gb, the margins on iPhone 6 and 6 Plus will be much better than any previous generation recently. So....increase in sales of hardware, higher ASPs, higher gross margins, SUPER high margins on the .15% for Apple Pay and you are left with a totally misguided investment short thesis.

    MB - Your conclusions are amateur. Stop trying to give investing advice on this stock because it is wildly misunderstood by you.
    Sep 14, 2014. 12:55 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Pay - Nice But Not A Big Deal [View article]
    Still off the mark MB. Your errors in guessing must have cost you 100s of thousands. Sorry for your bad luck in judgement.
    Sep 13, 2014. 11:29 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Q3 Risks Are To The Downside [View article]
    @MB
    You have posted the results of your short trades in the past. Are you willing to do this now? I would imagine more folks will start to listen your negative viewpoint on this stock if you create the credibility of solid trades that have played out the way you've so consistently written.
    Jul 25, 2014. 08:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Every Dividend Income Investor Should Own Apple Now [View article]
    You state GM is near 30% and expected to rise. It is actually guided to fall next quarter. See below for conference call:
    "Gross margin was 39.3%, also above our guidance range and operating margin was $15.6 billion, representing 29.8% of revenue. Net income was $10.2 billion translating to diluted earnings per share of $11.62."
    "Now, as we move ahead into the June quarter, I’d like to review our outlook which includes the types of forward-looking information that Nancy referred to at the beginning of the call. We expect revenue to be between $36 billion and $38 billion compared to $35.3 billion in the year ago quarter. We expect gross margins to be between 37% and 38%."
    Apr 27, 2014. 11:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: It's A Matter Of What, Where And Why [View article]
    Well done analysis. Great article.

    The ASP will be the hidden gem for the FY14 Q1 earnings report. I stand to be proven wrong but the marginal success of the 5C will greatly benefit AAPL as buyers lean toward the current flagship phone. Same with the iPad Air: released much sooner than Mini w Retina. Also much more of a "deal" at retailers for Christmas season. (Walmart, Target, Best Buy, etc)

    Combine this with the FY12 Q1 iPhone sales of 37M (First ever gigantic number) which reveals 37 million potential iPhone sales that have just been released from contract.

    Higher ASP + better adoption of flagship models + much higher than normal addressable market = happy Q1 report.

    Disclosure: Long AAPL common and options.
    Dec 29, 2013. 09:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An Apple Bear Makes The Case For Apple At $1,000 By 2017 [View article]
    @M_Blair lacks consistency. Would you trust the words of a broker if they only pushed stock advice that followed their personal portfolio? Most of these articles below had @M_Blair's disclosure that he was short AAPL. Interesting that his opinion now changes that he closed out short position. Five days before publishing this article he states, "I will likely short AAPL stock if it pops on any CHL." Please @M_Blair, save the bull case to someone with credible consistency.

    Oct 23: "Apple's new iPads are out and they are gorgeous: sell the news" "Apple...despite its incredibly good products Apple is losing share." "I am short Apple calls at $515 strike with a January 2014 expiry. I may add to the short by shorting the stock on any strength."

    Oct 28: "If you want a 64-bit tablet, there are hundreds of options and now, for the first time, the iPad is one of them."

    Oct 31: "In my opinion there is little Apple can do at this point to reverse the decline in its smartphone business." "The Apple bulls can hang their hats on a China Mobile deal, new "big thing" innovations that no one knows about, or "magic." Those hopes will be dashed by the weight of competition, the backbone of American business." "For those who like forecasts, for fiscal 2014 I look for Apple to sell 155 million iPhones, about 50 million iPads and about 20 million Mac computers. Prices and margins are likely to trend lower. As a result, I model sales for the year of about $170 billion with net income of $33 billion or about $37 per share. In my view, the risk to these results is to the downside and the stock may disappoint."

    18 Nov: "In conclusion, Apple's product plans as rumored are robust and necessary steps to meet competition in the smartphone market. Investors should be cautious not to overestimate the benefit to Apple's profit picture from execution of such plans."

    28 Nov: "Apple Would-Be Shorts: Bide Your Time, Apple's Run Will Be Over Soon Enough". "Judging from the euphoria in the stock and the buzz around the gorgeous iPhone 5s there is an outside chance Apple will sell 60 million phones in Q1 if it can get the supply. That will blow the socks off many observers and the stock should pop on the news. If it does, I will short into the mania and for those who want chapter and verse of my investment decisions I will post the complete details of the trade on SA for all to view and comment on." "I have no position in Apple at this moment but will very likely short the stock as the current bull run tires out - very likely with the release of Apple's Q1 results in January."

    3 Dec: "Demographics, Manias And The Short Case For Apple Explained". "At a 38% margin for the total company,...you have net income of $38 billion or roughly $41 per share in 2014, with declines likely in 2015 and following." "But based on the product portfolio it has today, Apple has about run its course in terms of profit growth and there is more downside risk than there is upside potential."

    7 Dec: "Qualcomm May Follow Apple South As iPhone Volumes Decline In 2014 And Beyond" "I estimated that the ongoing level of iPhone sales would stagnate at about 160 to 180 million at most with a real risk they would actually decline not only in volumes but also in price as the competition in a mature market took its toll and prices fell as they typically do for all electronic devices over time." "If the decline is combined with a disproportionate decline in iPhone sales, as I have argued elsewhere, the decline will be greater."

    10 Dec: "China Mobile matters to Apple (AAPL) but it matters less than most people think." "Those sales will be a tailwind for Apple in 2014, but in my view are unlikely to be enough to offset the slower growth of a maturing market; the pressure from competitors; and, the effect of lower average selling prices on margins. I hold puts on 1,000 Apple at a $485 strike and will look for an opportunity to short the stock in the $600 range as the current momentum continues."

    19 Dec: "I have no position in AAPL at this time but will short it into any strength. Additional disclosure: I closed out my April $485 Apple puts for a nice gain. I will likely short AAPL stock if it pops on any CHL"
    Dec 25, 2013. 08:20 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Smartphone Subsidies May End; Apple Might Suffer Withdrawal Symptoms [View article]
    @Michael Blair
    Please advise how you recently closed out Apr 485 puts for a nice gain when Apple is at a 52 week high. My Apr 450 and 500 calls are up 350% and 112% respectively. I'm not sure how your puts could be up in value unless you sold them to open and bought them to close!

    Maybe you meant the guy on the other side of the deal had a nice gain?

    I'm suspect your disclosure statement is accurate without more amplifying data.
    Dec 19, 2013. 08:46 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Thinking Longer Than Mr. Market - Margins And Average Selling Prices Will Reverse Trend [View article]
    Clarify: Macro level (long term for AAPL), not major indices averages.
    Nov 29, 2013. 07:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Thinking Longer Than Mr. Market - Margins And Average Selling Prices Will Reverse Trend [View article]
    The stock has run from 521 to 556 (7% in just 6 days). It's run from 450 since Sept 16th: A 106 point, 24% run. This has included the iPhone 5S and 5C announcement as well as the iPad mini with Retina announcement.

    I think the announcement of any China Mobile deal will be a huge catalyst for the stock. It depends on the terms and pricing. Guaranteed sales numbers like what AT&T and Sprint have reportedly done would be fantastic for guaranteed revenue.

    The technicals drove the stock from 700 to 380. The macro level technicals are now bullish. I would be worried about sustained movement upward if it happened too quickly. There was a very bullish base built from Oct 21st to Nov 23d where the price moved sideways on low volume. That is a good thing. The breakout that started on the 26th of Nov was the first that was high volume and that is also a great bullish sign.

    If you can predict where it would go from here, you are better than the rest of us...But I am bullish. We will see 600 before we see 500.
    Nov 29, 2013. 07:25 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Thinking Longer Than Mr. Market - Margins And Average Selling Prices Will Reverse Trend [View article]
    Didn't catch that in my edit. You are correct about 32 bit in 5C. My apologies.
    Nov 29, 2013. 05:29 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Thinking Longer Than Mr. Market - Margins And Average Selling Prices Will Reverse Trend [View article]
    @popster76 - I appreciate the genuine compliment. Thank you for your support.
    Nov 29, 2013. 04:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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