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Anthony DiCarlo

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  • Apple: It's A Matter Of What, Where And Why [View article]
    Well done analysis. Great article.

    The ASP will be the hidden gem for the FY14 Q1 earnings report. I stand to be proven wrong but the marginal success of the 5C will greatly benefit AAPL as buyers lean toward the current flagship phone. Same with the iPad Air: released much sooner than Mini w Retina. Also much more of a "deal" at retailers for Christmas season. (Walmart, Target, Best Buy, etc)

    Combine this with the FY12 Q1 iPhone sales of 37M (First ever gigantic number) which reveals 37 million potential iPhone sales that have just been released from contract.

    Higher ASP + better adoption of flagship models + much higher than normal addressable market = happy Q1 report.

    Disclosure: Long AAPL common and options.
    Dec 29 09:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An Apple Bear Makes The Case For Apple At $1,000 By 2017 [View article]
    @M_Blair lacks consistency. Would you trust the words of a broker if they only pushed stock advice that followed their personal portfolio? Most of these articles below had @M_Blair's disclosure that he was short AAPL. Interesting that his opinion now changes that he closed out short position. Five days before publishing this article he states, "I will likely short AAPL stock if it pops on any CHL." Please @M_Blair, save the bull case to someone with credible consistency.

    Oct 23: "Apple's new iPads are out and they are gorgeous: sell the news" "Apple...despite its incredibly good products Apple is losing share." "I am short Apple calls at $515 strike with a January 2014 expiry. I may add to the short by shorting the stock on any strength."

    Oct 28: "If you want a 64-bit tablet, there are hundreds of options and now, for the first time, the iPad is one of them."

    Oct 31: "In my opinion there is little Apple can do at this point to reverse the decline in its smartphone business." "The Apple bulls can hang their hats on a China Mobile deal, new "big thing" innovations that no one knows about, or "magic." Those hopes will be dashed by the weight of competition, the backbone of American business." "For those who like forecasts, for fiscal 2014 I look for Apple to sell 155 million iPhones, about 50 million iPads and about 20 million Mac computers. Prices and margins are likely to trend lower. As a result, I model sales for the year of about $170 billion with net income of $33 billion or about $37 per share. In my view, the risk to these results is to the downside and the stock may disappoint."

    18 Nov: "In conclusion, Apple's product plans as rumored are robust and necessary steps to meet competition in the smartphone market. Investors should be cautious not to overestimate the benefit to Apple's profit picture from execution of such plans."

    28 Nov: "Apple Would-Be Shorts: Bide Your Time, Apple's Run Will Be Over Soon Enough". "Judging from the euphoria in the stock and the buzz around the gorgeous iPhone 5s there is an outside chance Apple will sell 60 million phones in Q1 if it can get the supply. That will blow the socks off many observers and the stock should pop on the news. If it does, I will short into the mania and for those who want chapter and verse of my investment decisions I will post the complete details of the trade on SA for all to view and comment on." "I have no position in Apple at this moment but will very likely short the stock as the current bull run tires out - very likely with the release of Apple's Q1 results in January."

    3 Dec: "Demographics, Manias And The Short Case For Apple Explained". "At a 38% margin for the total company,...you have net income of $38 billion or roughly $41 per share in 2014, with declines likely in 2015 and following." "But based on the product portfolio it has today, Apple has about run its course in terms of profit growth and there is more downside risk than there is upside potential."

    7 Dec: "Qualcomm May Follow Apple South As iPhone Volumes Decline In 2014 And Beyond" "I estimated that the ongoing level of iPhone sales would stagnate at about 160 to 180 million at most with a real risk they would actually decline not only in volumes but also in price as the competition in a mature market took its toll and prices fell as they typically do for all electronic devices over time." "If the decline is combined with a disproportionate decline in iPhone sales, as I have argued elsewhere, the decline will be greater."

    10 Dec: "China Mobile matters to Apple (AAPL) but it matters less than most people think." "Those sales will be a tailwind for Apple in 2014, but in my view are unlikely to be enough to offset the slower growth of a maturing market; the pressure from competitors; and, the effect of lower average selling prices on margins. I hold puts on 1,000 Apple at a $485 strike and will look for an opportunity to short the stock in the $600 range as the current momentum continues."

    19 Dec: "I have no position in AAPL at this time but will short it into any strength. Additional disclosure: I closed out my April $485 Apple puts for a nice gain. I will likely short AAPL stock if it pops on any CHL"
    Dec 25 08:20 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Smartphone Subsidies May End; Apple Might Suffer Withdrawal Symptoms [View article]
    @Michael Blair
    Please advise how you recently closed out Apr 485 puts for a nice gain when Apple is at a 52 week high. My Apr 450 and 500 calls are up 350% and 112% respectively. I'm not sure how your puts could be up in value unless you sold them to open and bought them to close!

    Maybe you meant the guy on the other side of the deal had a nice gain?

    I'm suspect your disclosure statement is accurate without more amplifying data.
    Dec 19 08:46 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Thinking Longer Than Mr. Market - Margins And Average Selling Prices Will Reverse Trend [View article]
    Clarify: Macro level (long term for AAPL), not major indices averages.
    Nov 29 07:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Thinking Longer Than Mr. Market - Margins And Average Selling Prices Will Reverse Trend [View article]
    The stock has run from 521 to 556 (7% in just 6 days). It's run from 450 since Sept 16th: A 106 point, 24% run. This has included the iPhone 5S and 5C announcement as well as the iPad mini with Retina announcement.

    I think the announcement of any China Mobile deal will be a huge catalyst for the stock. It depends on the terms and pricing. Guaranteed sales numbers like what AT&T and Sprint have reportedly done would be fantastic for guaranteed revenue.

    The technicals drove the stock from 700 to 380. The macro level technicals are now bullish. I would be worried about sustained movement upward if it happened too quickly. There was a very bullish base built from Oct 21st to Nov 23d where the price moved sideways on low volume. That is a good thing. The breakout that started on the 26th of Nov was the first that was high volume and that is also a great bullish sign.

    If you can predict where it would go from here, you are better than the rest of us...But I am bullish. We will see 600 before we see 500.
    Nov 29 07:25 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Thinking Longer Than Mr. Market - Margins And Average Selling Prices Will Reverse Trend [View article]
    Didn't catch that in my edit. You are correct about 32 bit in 5C. My apologies.
    Nov 29 05:29 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Thinking Longer Than Mr. Market - Margins And Average Selling Prices Will Reverse Trend [View article]
    @popster76 - I appreciate the genuine compliment. Thank you for your support.
    Nov 29 04:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Thinking Longer Than Mr. Market - Margins And Average Selling Prices Will Reverse Trend [View article]
    They updated their guidance "toward the high end of Revenue and margins" in late September after their blowout 9 million weekend. So investors are only mislead (with their new guidance promises) if they report in late Jan with no peak under the covers.
    Nov 29 10:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Thinking Longer Than Mr. Market - Margins And Average Selling Prices Will Reverse Trend [View article]
    I wonder about the YoY iPad numbers. Lots of press in the supply-chain about being limited with the iPad Mini with Retina this quarter. That may move some of the iPad sales numbers to FYQ2 2014.

    China Mobile will be a catalyst like no other in recent years--Maybe the biggest since the iPad in 2010. Much of that move will be "buy the rumor" however.

    I agree they will have to update guidance before earnings in Jan.

    Have you seen the experts predicting not a shift upward in overall FY2014 total numbers but just a shift to the left into Q1? Very interesting question no one can accurately predict.
    Nov 29 10:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Thinking Longer Than Mr. Market - Margins And Average Selling Prices Will Reverse Trend [View article]
    You are accurate in that deals may have limited numbers (The Target employee told me they had a total of 141 iPads at that price) but the Apple.com/Store shipping times are remarkably low. I think Cook has done a good job ensuring the supply chain can keep up this year. iPhone 5S shipping times are 3-5 business days, iPad Air times are 5-7 days and iPad Mini with Retina are 5-10 days. That means anyone who actually wants one of these under the Christmas tree will have one. Remarkable. $75 gift card for Black Friday today.
    Nov 29 10:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Thinking Longer Than Mr. Market - Margins And Average Selling Prices Will Reverse Trend [View article]
    I think the margin guidance of 36.5-37.5 will prove very low. I wonder if they will update this at towards the end of the quarter like they did in late September of this year for FYQ4 2013. Oppenheimer always says the tailwinds of holiday quarters are pure volume and numbers. 60 million anything has great efficiencies.
    Nov 29 10:02 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Thinking Longer Than Mr. Market - Margins And Average Selling Prices Will Reverse Trend [View article]
    @Michael Blair - Thanks. I found your article interesting about the "out" years. More than one company has faltered in just 5 years. (Blackberry stopped innovating and look what happened.) Your article was actually the reason I wanted to write this one and bring up the luxury aspect of the brand. It is why I think it does have staying power.
    Nov 29 09:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Thinking Longer Than Mr. Market - Margins And Average Selling Prices Will Reverse Trend [View article]
    Yet the risk for that $199 iPad mini is on the box store, not the manufacturer. For the next few years, Apple's pricing structure has staying power. I was at Target last night in line for 1 hr and 45 min waiting to buy two new iPad Airs for $379. Crazy price since I just traded my iPad 1st generation in for a $200 Target gift card. New iPad Air for $179. There were 100s of people just in line for Apple products. The Target store had the entire back of the store roped off just for the iPad and iPad mini line. 
    Nov 29 09:54 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Thinking Longer Than Mr. Market - Margins And Average Selling Prices Will Reverse Trend [View article]
    I also like what Tim Cook's team is doing to market high-end. Look at the gold colored phone as an example of "perceived" luxury. That phone sold out in New Delhi, India in 15 minutes. There was a 60 minutes special about a year ago on the culture of many people in the nation of Indian. Gold is a very important part of gifts and wealth from marriages to inheritances. I don't believe Apple can ship enough of those to the second largest population in the world. This is a major turn around for a company that had only 2% market share with the iPhone 5.
    Yet note they didn't market a gold iPad. Yet? Didn't want to move too quickly and over saturate the niche?...
    Nov 29 09:51 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Thinking Longer Than Mr. Market - Margins And Average Selling Prices Will Reverse Trend [View article]
    I encourage your comments below. atd
    Nov 29 01:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
More on AAPL by Anthony DiCarlo
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