Anthony Grossi

Long-term horizon
Anthony Grossi
Long-term horizon
Contributor since: 2011
Cash never hurts, especially if Jeremy Grantham is even half right
part II addresses the benefits of rebalancing to a fixed asset allocation, i assume
you can short Dundee and get all these trends in one package.
Of course that stock has been getting killed lately. But that is the beauty of shorting stocks. Much like the quote about the lazy value investor, lazy short sellers have an advantage too. After all, a savvy short seller who shorts a stock at $100 and watches it fall to $0 gets exactly the same ROI as a lazy short seller who shorts a stock at $1 and watches it fall to $0, only the latter investor earns a much higher annualized return.
I don't recommend shorting this stock or any other, just giving you a place to start looking for exposure to Canadian real estate, etc.
last time I checked, no one on SA was pulling the kind of clout needed to move the price of a stock with an article. Write whatever's on your mind.
you could hold GGN, they more or less do that strategy for you. Hasn't worked well recently
Look at FPI in terms of the price you are paying per acre.
They have about 7,300 acres and a market cap of about $63M
so that's about $8,650 per acre.
Now go check the price of farmland in your homestate.
FPI is more than just a touch overpriced.
I live in Kansas and currently productive farmland sells for about $2,500 per acre.
many states have rules against farmland being owned under a REIT structure
or you could just add up the value of their three publicly listed subsidiaries and add net cash.
why on earth would Loews have any causal correlation to the food and beverage index?
Its IFRS book value which is basically market to market.
Hey Mike,
Right, I follow Dundee a little and think that it is more or less fairly valued using GAAP book minus debt and preferreds.
But we also differ on Mr. Goodman himself. I've yet to see any real value creation from his actions. This stock was dead money from inception (1990's) up until the mid-aughts housing boom slash resources boom. I don't think you can rightly attribute recent performance to Mr. Goodman. Secondly, he has been a super gold bug since the 1960's, so again, after 40 years of being wrong do 10 years of being right make him a great steward or just in the right place at the right time? Couple this with the fallout in miners and inflated toronto stock market, there's reason to pause here. That and he literally said, "sell in may and go away" in his 2012 annual letter, so he obviously can't predict the future.
Its a very interesting set of assets, I love the merchant bankers (like LUK and BAM), trades at half book...
It is definitely not expensive. I just prefer to sit on the sidelines until I see a real no brainer; safe and cheap. Know what I mean.
Sometimes I feel like you and I are the only ones following this stock.
Hey there Safety and Mike,
I've been wanting to ask someone this,
If Dundee (DC.A) had a book value of CAD$32 in 2013 and they spun off about $14 worth of DREAM, shouldn't their book value be about $18? So while they are trading at a discount to book, its not a huge amount (only about 5% or so). The discount shouldn't be as high as back in 08/09. I think all those financial sites that list DC.A at 0.5xBook have it wrong. All in all, it trades more less on par with LUK, which is the only comp I could think of.
Unfortunately, I don't have twenty good ideas. So I have a very concentrated portfolio.
You'll also notice that my two ideas were both big dividend paying wide moat boring stocks (I bought MO and EPE which became my current portfolio - I sold MO to pay off most of my mortgage)
KRFT is definitely stuck in the mud unless the middle class consumer comes back. It will be a very interesting lesson in economics and marketing to see if consumers stick with private labels or go back to brand names if and when the recovery trickles down to the rest of us.
time in the market is more valuable than timing the market.
As a DGI guy you should just buy the cheapest DGI stock on your watch list every third month when your dividend check arrives. This will grow your dividend purse and take your emotions out of the game.
How was that?
the problem Mr. Hussman, is not that you have under-perfomed the rally. The problem is that you are LOSING your clients money. Worst case scenario a long/short or market neutral fund like yours should at least be able to stay flat, but to consistently lose money during a market rally is just silly. Prem Watsa at Fairfax says his portfolio is 100% hedged, but he isn't losing money.
much like Brookfield, which has a similarly confusing array of spinoffs and subsidiaries, unless you really just have to have a dividend in order to own a stock, you would probably be better off just holding the parent company (DC.A or DDEJF).
why make any geographic allocation decisions? Why not just own VT (or VTWSX) as a proxy for all equities?
I have a technical objection
you claim that indices buy high and sell low
but in practice, once the original index purchase is made the index does not buy or sell any stocks - the cap weighting is just the result of market fluctuations (unless the index changes constituents)
So its a bit of a fib to say that index funds buy high - the just buy and hold.
you realize that they borrow at fixed rates, while anticipating that the dividend payout will increase. They are capturing far more than just the initial spread.
smart beta is just another way to describe quant funds. They assume that some set of metrics will result in outperformance and create a fund that tracks those metrics.
I thought most of the market cap of Dundee was from shares of BNS. Did they sell those when I wasn't paying attention?
I love sum of parts investment ideas.
This was the best thing I read today.
regarding srobbin
"half perform better than the average"
actually half perform better than the median, but since investor returns are distributed along a log curve, much fewer than half of investors perform above the average.
technical point: one possible reason that VBIAX may have outperformed is that the fund rebalances to 60/40 at the end of every trading day. How often does your etf model portfolio rebalance?
DGSIX, VGSTX, vanguard "lifestrategy" funds, GMWAX, FGBLX
I'm sure there are others
there are really only two or three assets to consider; equities, bonds and cash
so why not a global equity fund, a global bond fund and cash allowance.
If you go with a balanced portfolio or one of those target date funds, the re-balancing is done for you and all you have to do is choose when to make your re-investments.
In this case, simple really is better.
As both a sports cards and comic book nerd, I remember selling my cherished possessions in the late 90's to help pay off a debt and thinking I would never see them again.
About two years ago I started collecting again for the joy of it, and damn those things are cheap right now (I have grown into the middle aged male with disposable income). If the world ever decides that physical objects have value and that a web page is not an adequate substitute, these "collectibles" will be in short supply (golden era, that is).
As per the author and Akaralph, kids today don't even care about these things, and sports stars have been tainted by the likes of Bonds and Armstrong. You can always find it online, right?
One thing you have to consider in collectibles markets is who on earth do you sell them to? Will this generation really esteem Lebron James they way an earlier generation idolized Christy Mathewson? (I totally just gave away where I grew up, huh)
If you look at normalized earnings you have to question the dividend, as dividend is now greater than 09 and all years prior to 06. All depends on guessing where commodity prices go from here.
the "problem" is cost of capital, not interest rates. As long as market participants are buying share issuances MLPs are the place to be.
when I read the title I assumed the author would be writing about how index investors still have to make "active" decisions about asset allocation and timing of purchases (i.e. it is an active choice to make monthly allocations instead of annually, or to hold a 60/40 versus glide-path).
Second, there are some newer indexes (indices for those of us who went to college) that fix one or the other of your two concerns. Example, VT is a global cap weighted index that completely ignores country of origin and lets the pieces fall where they may. The other example being equal weight indices.
By my estimation of this articles intentions, one could sort of play the middle ground with an equal weight wilshire 5k etf. Representing 99% of the US market cap, this would eliminate your concern about how committees select index constituents and the equal weighting would eliminate your concerns about cap weighting value.
love these types of companies, just add up the sum of the parts, calculate your desired margin of safety threshold and the working day is done
Any excuse to repost one of my favorite quotes
"Practical wisdom falls quickly by the wayside when investing is concerned – primarily because the same uncertainty that people deal with quite decently in other aspects of their life, drives them to do truly insane things when it comes to money. The reasons could fill a book – but people seem to think that the rules of common sense they use in other areas of their life don’t apply to investing. Where people fully accept that “in life” you can make all the right choices, and things will not always turn out the way you want – applying the same formula to investing is nearly impossible. As a result, investors don’t look for a great process, or great thinking – they look for great results, and then they chase them. "