Buy The Post-Earnings Sell-Off In Western Union For Rebound Potential, 4% Yield [View article]
all lot if it is related to new compliance standards for international remittances that are required by Feb of 2013. They just bit the bullet early, which is why they had to close a lot of agents and it limits how much they can make per transaction. That and competition in the US Mexico corridor really took them by surprise. This is still a good (but not great) company but they will earn lower returns going forward than they have over the past 5 yrs and it will take the market time to adjust.
How My Family And I Overcame Obstacles To Be Better Off Than 4 Years Ago [View article]
Interesting set of topics to discuss...
Am I better off than 4 yrs ago? Yes, by a lot. And neither political party had anything to do with that. Never did and never will.
it would cost you a lot of money in the last 20 years listening to the business press, because the business press tends to be pro-Republican. In 1992, when Bill Clinton got elected, they said bad things are going to happen to the market, and the stock market went up a lot. Then with Bush, "Great things are going to happen." In this case it was certainly not Bush's fault; he moved right in as the tech stocks were going down Then a boom, and then another bust right at the end. And then Obama came in and "Bad things are going to happen to the market," and it's been back up.
I'm just saying I don't think who is the president has anything to do with market behavior, and I think we've got 20 years of evidence showing that
It's a big world out there, and none of us affects things that much. The sky won't fall regardless of who gets elected and its always going to be your responsibility to improve your life, not theirs.
Arkansas Best: Want A Trucking Company For Free? [View article]
it's an interesting idea, but given the values across the freight forwarding industry I think you could buy a EXPD or even FDX with less operational risk than PACR or ABFS. I remember when Yellow Freight collapsed. This is a commodity business pure and simple and the end can come quickly. it's an interesting turnaround story, but recent remarks from fdx, et al, make it sound like things could stay rough for another couple years
Seriously, Can Hewlett-Packard Be This Cheap? [View article]
after 5 secs of looking at the 10yr financials page shows that net income is down from B$8.7 in 2010 to less than B$5.3 in TTM. Free cash flow is down from B$11.6 in 2008 to B$4.7 for TTM period. you said they have grown free cash flow at an avg rate of 14% over the last decade but the actual numbers for FCF in 2002 B$3.7 and B$4.7 for TTM, therefore the real 10 yr growth rate is closer to 3%
so they're not actually a growing company, now are they? as pointed out by Mr. Holmstrom above me, they have managed to keep revenues flat through acquisitions.
That having been said, for someone willing to put some risk capital to work (like Seth Klarman for example, who loves fallen angles and owns Blackberry as well) HPQ is an incredible turnaround opportunity because of its services businesses. I just have trouble believing they will be able to retain double digit margins while competing in the same space as IBM, Cisco and Dell. But at 4 times FCF its officially cheap
The Gold Standard Gets Another Look [View article]
I must be an idiot b/c I simply don't understand the importance of gold. . It is simply a medium of exchange like any other arbitrary medium of exchange. It is no more a store of value than the dollar (or seashells, jade, livestock, or even stocks). The gold standard does not prevent inflation or deflation. The price of things still went up and down during the time when the US had a gold standard.
Exelon: Wisconsin Energy Generates Electrifying Performance Compared To Exelon [View article]
you can't compare a regulated and unregulated utility. Reg Utilities are having their day in the sun b/c of interest rates. Why you ask, b/c a regulated utility has a fixed marginal rate of return on investment negotiated with the state, so when the interest rate on the money borrowed to make that investment drops, your margins expand. Everything I know about demographics for energy supply and demand say that the market rate for power will continue to increase in line with inflation over the long haul and that makes EXC a decent investment for long term income investors
Absolute Value: LinkedIn Vs. Dolby Labs [View article]
welcome back to the fray Mr. LVI
I'd be interested in hearing your thoughts on comparing DLB to previous invesmtents of yours, RIMG and LKX (i think you owned TLAB also).
On the surface, all seem to follow a similar thesis of owning the fcf of fading (or changing in ways that make investors nervous) but still profitable businesses. I think DELL and HPQ could probably fit into that profile as well.
My criticism would be that; since you can't control how that fcf is managed it seems unlikely someone else will choose to manage it in your best interest rather than their own.(and in theory that fcf will shrink with time) I'd love to read a follow up on these investments and how you see the underlying values measured against the stocks performance over the last year or two. Specifically b/c all three of these stocks face challenges from new technologies and seem like similar investments in many ways.
Best of luck I think your thesis for VIV was much stronger, but yes you've proved your point that markets are (or can be) irrational.
ETFs Vs. Mutual Funds: A Surprising Analysis [View article]
One small but potentially important advantage that mutual funds have over etf's (for retail investors) is that capital gains and dividends are automatically reinvested in (index) mutual funds (compounding/time-arbi... whereas with etf's the individual investor must count on themselves to put emotions aside and make regular reinvestments - not something everyone can do, as many will try to time the markets, or change asset allocation to chase performance. Similarly, the higher cost of trading mutual fund shares makes it slightly more probable that investors will resist the urge to trade and therefore adhere to an asset allocation plan. Since everyone on SA is a genius who beats the market I'm sure this comment will be seen as a form of blasphemy.
Wisdomtree's 20% Plus Growth Rate Makes It A Wise Investment [View article]
I've used wisdomtree products for investing since I first heard of the company. I think dividend weighted index investing is a high quality investment strategy in general and for small caps in particular.
That being said: at the end of the day wisdomtree (and Schwab, Vanguard and Blackrock) are vendors of commodity products. WETF doesn't have any economic moat. The are not the low cost provider and the product they sell could be easily copied by a larger competitor if it proves popular enough to attract such attention.
I think over the long haul I can earn more investing with widomtree than in it.
Labcorp's Acquisition Of Medtox Leaves Enzo As An Attractive Investment Opportunity [View article]
why not Psychemedics (PMD) its also in drug screening and has much better returns and margins PMD is more of a play on hiring (drug screening for new hires) whereas LH is more of a play on personalized medicine (blood tests)
you listed a bunch of funds but didn't give an opinion. I'd be interested to get your 2 cents on the difference between a quant fund like BRSIX and a deep value net-net fund like PVFIX. Has anyone shown an ability to beat the index in the micro-cap space?
Exelon's Risk Profile Has Changed - What You Need To Know [View article]
IPO Preview: Restoration Hardware [View article]
Buy The Post-Earnings Sell-Off In Western Union For Rebound Potential, 4% Yield [View article]
People Who Think They Are Conservative Investors [View article]
but identifying valid devotional themes sounds like a lot more work than doing a proper five forces/value chain analysis
How My Family And I Overcame Obstacles To Be Better Off Than 4 Years Ago [View article]
Am I better off than 4 yrs ago? Yes, by a lot. And neither political party had anything to do with that. Never did and never will.
it would cost you a lot of money in the last 20 years listening to the business press, because the business press tends to be pro-Republican. In 1992, when Bill Clinton got elected, they said bad things are going to happen to the market, and the stock market went up a lot. Then with Bush, "Great things are going to happen." In this case it was certainly not Bush's fault; he moved right in as the tech stocks were going down Then a boom, and then another bust right at the end. And then Obama came in and "Bad things are going to happen to the market," and it's been back up.
I'm just saying I don't think who is the president has anything to do with market behavior, and I think we've got 20 years of evidence showing that
It's a big world out there, and none of us affects things that much. The sky won't fall regardless of who gets elected and its always going to be your responsibility to improve your life, not theirs.
Thanks for letting me rant with the rest of you
Arkansas Best: Want A Trucking Company For Free? [View article]
Seriously, Can Hewlett-Packard Be This Cheap? [View article]
so they're not actually a growing company, now are they?
as pointed out by Mr. Holmstrom above me, they have managed to keep revenues flat through acquisitions.
That having been said, for someone willing to put some risk capital to work (like Seth Klarman for example, who loves fallen angles and owns Blackberry as well) HPQ is an incredible turnaround opportunity because of its services businesses. I just have trouble believing they will be able to retain double digit margins while competing in the same space as IBM, Cisco and Dell. But at 4 times FCF its officially cheap
The Gold Standard Gets Another Look [View article]
Exelon: Wisconsin Energy Generates Electrifying Performance Compared To Exelon [View article]
Absolute Value: LinkedIn Vs. Dolby Labs [View article]
I'd be interested in hearing your thoughts on comparing DLB to previous invesmtents of yours, RIMG and LKX (i think you owned TLAB also).
On the surface, all seem to follow a similar thesis of owning the fcf of fading (or changing in ways that make investors nervous) but still profitable businesses. I think DELL and HPQ could probably fit into that profile as well.
My criticism would be that; since you can't control how that fcf is managed it seems unlikely someone else will choose to manage it in your best interest rather than their own.(and in theory that fcf will shrink with time) I'd love to read a follow up on these investments and how you see the underlying values measured against the stocks performance over the last year or two. Specifically b/c all three of these stocks face challenges from new technologies and seem like similar investments in many ways.
Best of luck
I think your thesis for VIV was much stronger, but yes you've proved your point that markets are (or can be) irrational.
ETFs Vs. Mutual Funds: A Surprising Analysis [View article]
Wisdomtree's 20% Plus Growth Rate Makes It A Wise Investment [View article]
That being said: at the end of the day wisdomtree (and Schwab, Vanguard and Blackrock) are vendors of commodity products. WETF doesn't have any economic moat. The are not the low cost provider and the product they sell could be easily copied by a larger competitor if it proves popular enough to attract such attention.
I think over the long haul I can earn more investing with widomtree than in it.
Labcorp's Acquisition Of Medtox Leaves Enzo As An Attractive Investment Opportunity [View article]
its also in drug screening and has much better returns and margins
PMD is more of a play on hiring (drug screening for new hires) whereas LH is more of a play on personalized medicine (blood tests)
A (Long) Look At Birner Dental Management Services [View article]
The Best Micro Cap Funds [View article]