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Anthony Grossi  

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  • How My Family And I Overcame Obstacles To Be Better Off Than 4 Years Ago [View article]
    Interesting set of topics to discuss...

    Am I better off than 4 yrs ago? Yes, by a lot. And neither political party had anything to do with that. Never did and never will.

    it would cost you a lot of money in the last 20 years listening to the business press, because the business press tends to be pro-Republican. In 1992, when Bill Clinton got elected, they said bad things are going to happen to the market, and the stock market went up a lot. Then with Bush, "Great things are going to happen." In this case it was certainly not Bush's fault; he moved right in as the tech stocks were going down Then a boom, and then another bust right at the end. And then Obama came in and "Bad things are going to happen to the market," and it's been back up.

    I'm just saying I don't think who is the president has anything to do with market behavior, and I think we've got 20 years of evidence showing that

    It's a big world out there, and none of us affects things that much. The sky won't fall regardless of who gets elected and its always going to be your responsibility to improve your life, not theirs.

    Thanks for letting me rant with the rest of you
    Oct 2, 2012. 08:51 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arkansas Best: Want A Trucking Company For Free? [View article]
    it's an interesting idea, but given the values across the freight forwarding industry I think you could buy a EXPD or even FDX with less operational risk than PACR or ABFS. I remember when Yellow Freight collapsed. This is a commodity business pure and simple and the end can come quickly. it's an interesting turnaround story, but recent remarks from fdx, et al, make it sound like things could stay rough for another couple years
    Sep 22, 2012. 08:59 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seriously, Can Hewlett-Packard Be This Cheap? [View article]
    after 5 secs of looking at the 10yr financials page shows that net income is down from B$8.7 in 2010 to less than B$5.3 in TTM. Free cash flow is down from B$11.6 in 2008 to B$4.7 for TTM period. you said they have grown free cash flow at an avg rate of 14% over the last decade but the actual numbers for FCF in 2002 B$3.7 and B$4.7 for TTM, therefore the real 10 yr growth rate is closer to 3%

    so they're not actually a growing company, now are they?
    as pointed out by Mr. Holmstrom above me, they have managed to keep revenues flat through acquisitions.

    That having been said, for someone willing to put some risk capital to work (like Seth Klarman for example, who loves fallen angles and owns Blackberry as well) HPQ is an incredible turnaround opportunity because of its services businesses. I just have trouble believing they will be able to retain double digit margins while competing in the same space as IBM, Cisco and Dell. But at 4 times FCF its officially cheap
    Sep 8, 2012. 11:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Gold Standard Gets Another Look [View article]
    I must be an idiot b/c I simply don't understand the importance of gold. . It is simply a medium of exchange like any other arbitrary medium of exchange. It is no more a store of value than the dollar (or seashells, jade, livestock, or even stocks). The gold standard does not prevent inflation or deflation. The price of things still went up and down during the time when the US had a gold standard.
    Aug 29, 2012. 03:41 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exelon: Wisconsin Energy Generates Electrifying Performance Compared To Exelon [View article]
    you can't compare a regulated and unregulated utility. Reg Utilities are having their day in the sun b/c of interest rates. Why you ask, b/c a regulated utility has a fixed marginal rate of return on investment negotiated with the state, so when the interest rate on the money borrowed to make that investment drops, your margins expand. Everything I know about demographics for energy supply and demand say that the market rate for power will continue to increase in line with inflation over the long haul and that makes EXC a decent investment for long term income investors
    Aug 28, 2012. 09:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Absolute Value: LinkedIn Vs. Dolby Labs [View article]
    welcome back to the fray Mr. LVI

    I'd be interested in hearing your thoughts on comparing DLB to previous invesmtents of yours, RIMG and LKX (i think you owned TLAB also).

    On the surface, all seem to follow a similar thesis of owning the fcf of fading (or changing in ways that make investors nervous) but still profitable businesses. I think DELL and HPQ could probably fit into that profile as well.

    My criticism would be that; since you can't control how that fcf is managed it seems unlikely someone else will choose to manage it in your best interest rather than their own.(and in theory that fcf will shrink with time) I'd love to read a follow up on these investments and how you see the underlying values measured against the stocks performance over the last year or two. Specifically b/c all three of these stocks face challenges from new technologies and seem like similar investments in many ways.

    Best of luck
    I think your thesis for VIV was much stronger, but yes you've proved your point that markets are (or can be) irrational.
    Aug 9, 2012. 03:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ETFs Vs. Mutual Funds: A Surprising Analysis [View article]
    One small but potentially important advantage that mutual funds have over etf's (for retail investors) is that capital gains and dividends are automatically reinvested in (index) mutual funds (compounding/time-arbi... whereas with etf's the individual investor must count on themselves to put emotions aside and make regular reinvestments - not something everyone can do, as many will try to time the markets, or change asset allocation to chase performance. Similarly, the higher cost of trading mutual fund shares makes it slightly more probable that investors will resist the urge to trade and therefore adhere to an asset allocation plan. Since everyone on SA is a genius who beats the market I'm sure this comment will be seen as a form of blasphemy.
    Aug 5, 2012. 08:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wisdomtree's 20% Plus Growth Rate Makes It A Wise Investment [View article]
    I've used wisdomtree products for investing since I first heard of the company. I think dividend weighted index investing is a high quality investment strategy in general and for small caps in particular.

    That being said: at the end of the day wisdomtree (and Schwab, Vanguard and Blackrock) are vendors of commodity products. WETF doesn't have any economic moat. The are not the low cost provider and the product they sell could be easily copied by a larger competitor if it proves popular enough to attract such attention.

    I think over the long haul I can earn more investing with widomtree than in it.
    Aug 3, 2012. 03:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Labcorp's Acquisition Of Medtox Leaves Enzo As An Attractive Investment Opportunity [View article]
    why not Psychemedics (PMD)
    its also in drug screening and has much better returns and margins
    PMD is more of a play on hiring (drug screening for new hires) whereas LH is more of a play on personalized medicine (blood tests)
    Jun 8, 2012. 08:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A (Long) Look At Birner Dental Management Services [View article]
    I appreciate the thorough response, thanks for clearing that up
    Jun 7, 2012. 04:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Best Micro Cap Funds [View article]
    you listed a bunch of funds but didn't give an opinion. I'd be interested to get your 2 cents on the difference between a quant fund like BRSIX and a deep value net-net fund like PVFIX. Has anyone shown an ability to beat the index in the micro-cap space?
    Jun 7, 2012. 04:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A (Long) Look At Birner Dental Management Services [View article]
    BDMS has had a div payout ratio in excess of 100% for the last three consecutive years. I don't think that you did an adequate job of explaining the companies roll-up business model or the problem with their payout policy. This being a (long) look at Birner, those are pretty important considerations. Which is not in and of itself to say that this is a bad stock or company. It is cash flow positive and has earned admirable ROE and ROIC, but has also had declining book value and increasing cost of revenue. If you can get comfortable with a roll-up biz model, its worth a look as an income stock (roll-up model means they rely on acquisitions for growth and ROI)
    Jun 5, 2012. 08:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Elephant In The Room For Passive Asset Allocation Strategies [View article]
    rebalancing completely solves the problem you are discussing.

    By definition you will end up buying of an asset class when it is cheap and less of it when it is over-valued.

    Passive investing still the winner.

    Want visual proof. Look at a "since inception" chart of VWELX (60/40 balanced fund) vs the S&P. (VWELX was founded in 1929).

    End result - a virtual tie with an all equity portfolio.

    All the reward with less risk.

    That's the whole darn point of passive investing.
    Apr 30, 2012. 03:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CarMax, A Growth Story [View article]
    I couldn't find the number for new car sales, but I also didn't look very hard. I know that used car sales are 80% of revenue, and that is were the company's competitive advantage lies. They aren't going to be able to one-up the competition in new cars like they can with used cars. The flip side is that new car sales are higher margin. I would expect them to continue focusing on used cars as far as making earnings projections.
    Mar 20, 2012. 11:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exelon: Power For Your Portfolio [View article]
    I appreciate the compliment. I also like the diversity of your portfolio. I'm also long PM.
    Mar 19, 2012. 12:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment