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Anthony Grossi

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  • Is It Wrong To Take A Position In A Stock And Then Write About It On Seeking Alpha? [View article]
    last time I checked, no one on SA was pulling the kind of clout needed to move the price of a stock with an article. Write whatever's on your mind.
    Aug 6, 2014. 02:54 PM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Seductive Warren Buffett [View article]
    Seriously? "Buffett had a good run, but at this point there’s really zero reason to believe that his kind of fundamentals-based value investing still gives anybody an edge.

    made me laugh. if you're not investing based on fundamentals, what are you basing your investments on?
    Dec 4, 2012. 04:50 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rooting for a Crash [View article]

    so the link brings up a chart of NEW spending under Bush and Obama and helps show just how big the impact of the wars and the bailout have been. The point is that gov't can respond to but not control external shocks and should focus on policy changes.

    I'm cool with letting the Bush era - Obama extended tax cuts expire, and I am well aware that I hold an unpopular view. It would be nice to see an end to ethanol subsidies as well as purposeful reform to social security and medicare/medicaid, but why would a publicly elected official shoot themselves in the face like that?

    I find it amusing to watch congress argue about borrowing money to pay for spending they already approved. Its like watching a college kid get their first credit card invoice.
    Jul 27, 2011. 06:58 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MLPs And Interest Rates, How Right Is Mr. Gundlach? [View article]
    the "problem" is cost of capital, not interest rates. As long as market participants are buying share issuances MLPs are the place to be.
    May 17, 2013. 04:45 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Undervalued Philip Morris Offers A 4% Yield Backed By Strong Buybacks [View article]
    you realize that they borrow at fixed rates, while anticipating that the dividend payout will increase. They are capturing far more than just the initial spread.
    Aug 28, 2013. 07:16 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How My Family And I Overcame Obstacles To Be Better Off Than 4 Years Ago [View article]
    Interesting set of topics to discuss...

    Am I better off than 4 yrs ago? Yes, by a lot. And neither political party had anything to do with that. Never did and never will.

    it would cost you a lot of money in the last 20 years listening to the business press, because the business press tends to be pro-Republican. In 1992, when Bill Clinton got elected, they said bad things are going to happen to the market, and the stock market went up a lot. Then with Bush, "Great things are going to happen." In this case it was certainly not Bush's fault; he moved right in as the tech stocks were going down Then a boom, and then another bust right at the end. And then Obama came in and "Bad things are going to happen to the market," and it's been back up.

    I'm just saying I don't think who is the president has anything to do with market behavior, and I think we've got 20 years of evidence showing that

    It's a big world out there, and none of us affects things that much. The sky won't fall regardless of who gets elected and its always going to be your responsibility to improve your life, not theirs.

    Thanks for letting me rant with the rest of you
    Oct 2, 2012. 08:51 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Support Chuck Carnevale's Preference For Valuation [View article]
    time in the market is more valuable than timing the market.

    As a DGI guy you should just buy the cheapest DGI stock on your watch list every third month when your dividend check arrives. This will grow your dividend purse and take your emotions out of the game.

    How was that?
    Dec 6, 2013. 01:55 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft: A Strong Buy [View article]
    I disagree with both the author and Jakeman that MSFT's public perception is holding back the stock. IT pro's and consumers alike trust Office products everyday and the scale of "everyone else uses it so we have to, too" is a fantastic business advantage. Also, I don't think the float is a real issue.

    I think the real problem holding back MSFT is the threat of margin compression. The margins in the Office business are around 70%. That's better than the margins at monopolies like Fico. If MSFT's margins contracted to the level of FICO's (60%) that's almost $4 B in lost revenue and the company would still be posting results consistent with a monopoly type business.

    Do MSFT product get commodified when everyone moves to web based OS? I am not enough of a techie to answer that but its a real threat. If MSFT has to drop prices to retain customers that's enough to crush the stock and this big unknown has kept the stock price down for at least the last 2 or 3 years.

    Competitors are willing to spend big money, and lose almost all of it, trying to take business away from MSFT. Don't believe me? Look at how much money MSFT has fiddled away trying to take business away from GOOG.

    Tech companies pursue disruptive and destructive innovations whenever they can — regardless of whether there’s money in it for them. As long as there’s hope, they’ll keep hoping. A well financed irrational competitor is never a good thing (GOOG free Android OS).

    At the end of the day I just don't understand the threats facing MSFT today, and neither does anyone else. And its killing the stock.

    The underlying business looks fantastic and stock looks cheap.
    It's just a question of do you want to play this game or would you rather own something you can forecast earnings?
    Nov 25, 2011. 10:08 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How to Profit From MLP 'Stink Bids' [View article]
    always feels good to be right ;) the best ever stink bid win in history is some lucky bastard in 2008 managed to buy 10 shares of BRK class A for $880 dollars in premarket bid. Flip side of course is some poor retired person prob just lost their life savings.

    Many brokers no longer allow this sort of thing and during the flash crash many trades were canceled (including my 1000 MO @ $13.50).

    All the same its great to hunt for value in market inefficiencies. If you look hard enough you'll eventually find one. Enjoyed the article, I'm jealous I wasn't one of the people buying EPD below 30
    Mar 16, 2011. 09:11 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Look At Kinder Morgan's Payout Ratio [View article]
    you've inspired me to write an article about the fallacy of distributable cash flow. The problem is not the KMI or any other specific company is currently at fault, but simply because the opportunity exists someone will eventually use an MLP vehicle for fraud.

    Lets say I own a GP with IDRs in an LP and my dividend is based on distributed cash flow instead of profit. If I lend $100 to the LP and they distribute $10 per year for 10 years to the GP, the GP has increased its distributable cash flow but has failed to make any profit.

    This same trick can of course be used to hide unprofitable investments by diverting investors attention to dcf and dividends. The never ending issuance of shares further delays the inevitable by allowing the company to leverage this process.

    See the flaw?
    Profits are always what counts.
    Apr 25, 2013. 06:12 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Morgan Stanley Upgrades Sirius to Overweight, Gives a $2 Target [View article]
    Mr. Oink Oink
    this was a cut and paste article. Its basically a press release from MS reissued by Mr. Russian's websites Sirius Buzz and Satellite Radio Playground. Think of it as free access to an analyst report that the author had to pay for in order to kick it down to us cheapskates in the blogosphere.

    With regards to Mr. Damien Russian, thank you for providing this service, and keep the good info flowing.
    Feb 3, 2011. 02:31 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Portfolio For A Young, Aggressive Investor [View article]
    balanced portfolio of index funds, like the star fund, are a much better place for young investors to start. What will make you the most money in the long run is investing in yourself and living within your means. Think about it mathematically, let's say you can earn 15% in the market vs 7% for an index fund over 10 years and you are a young investor starting with $10 grand; and that this is because you took your own advice about researching and reading for 20 hrs a week. Get out a calculator and figure out how much you earned per hour versus simple indexing. Then take a second to realize how poor the odds are of you actually doubling the market return over the long run. Index investing starts to make a lot more sense once you factor in the opportunity costs.
    Mar 10, 2013. 04:26 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Gold Standard Gets Another Look [View article]
    I must be an idiot b/c I simply don't understand the importance of gold. . It is simply a medium of exchange like any other arbitrary medium of exchange. It is no more a store of value than the dollar (or seashells, jade, livestock, or even stocks). The gold standard does not prevent inflation or deflation. The price of things still went up and down during the time when the US had a gold standard.
    Aug 29, 2012. 03:41 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan Energy Partners: Best Oil and Natural Gas Play in America [View article]
    MLP's grow by issuing shares and building out. The new pipes help generate cash flows to pay distributions at a rate greater than the increase in share float (if it was a good investment). However there are two things to think about if you are not already long an MLP position. #1) the dems have overtly stated that eliminating pass through tax exemptions is part of their plans for overhauling the tax code (and help raise revenues). In the news it will be pitched as eliminating corporate loopholes and or simplify the tax code. This hurts MLP's more than you think b/c of the effect of compound interests on those distribution incentives. I have no idea if they will or can actually pass such a thing, but its on the table. #2) When (if) rates ever do start to go back up MLP's will get squeezed on the margins and grow their distributions more slowly b/c the industry is so heavily reliant on access to revolving credit facilities.

    The authors original intent in the article is spot on. Midstream infrastructure is a great way to play both the energy sector and the growing role of nat gas in the US. Richard Kinder has proven himself a true steward of shareholder interests in addition to being a cunning businessman. And yes KMP was originally started when Kinder purchased $500 Million of pipes from defunct Enron, where he worked at the time, how's that for sticking to your boss.
    May 5, 2011. 07:28 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Glencore IPO: A Bad Sign for Commodity Investors [View article]
    Before we jump to conclusions, I think its worth taking time to detail the "this time its different" side of the story. There are a lot of advantages to Glencore going public. The first among these is that the company can use shares as an acquisition currency. Secondly, a public offering allows departing partners to sell their equity without depleting working capital. There are some limits to how fast a private equity firm can grow. For example, a public listing would give Glencore the scale to undertake very large capital projects or transformational M&A, including the potential takeover of Xstrata (XSRAF) or Anglo American (AAUKY). Glencore already holds 34.4% of Xstrata, and Anglo American was the object of a proposed 2009 "merger of equals" that never happened. So basically, going public gives the company the ability to leverage up.

    There is reason to believe that this IPO could benefit shareholders as well. According to the company factsheet, the company has total assets of $66.3 billion and last year London-based Liberum Capital Ltd valued Glencore at between $47 and $51 billion. That's big enough to put Glencore in the FTSE 100, which translates into a lot of institutional buyers at index funds and pension funds that track the FTSE index. And lets not forget that shares of Goldman Sachs have walloped the S&P since its IPO. If the prevailing demographic patterns regarding the growing rate of consumption in China and other emerging economies proves to be accurate, the next twenty years bodes well for firms exposed to the commodities sector.
    Apr 19, 2011. 08:00 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment