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Anthony Grossi  

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  • Biglari Holdings, Inc: Sardar Biglari - Bet The Jockey Part III [View article]
    great series so far
    Mar 10, 2013. 11:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Conversion To Franchise Model At DineEquity Makes For An Attractive Dividend Stock [View article]
    so far Marcato has gotten everything they asked for except the $6 dividend
    Mar 7, 2013. 01:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dumbest Portfolio For The Smartest People [View article]
    there are several mutual funds that already replicate the Barclays Aggregate World Bond Index at fairly reasonable expense rates (given the difficulty of replicating that exposure on your own) but of far greater interest to the author of the article, Vanguard has finally announced plans to introduce a global bond index fund, which when coupled with BND, should provide the cheapest means of achieving your vision of a global balanced index portfolio. I currently use VTWSX and LSGLX plus a little dash of BRSIX to accomplish this same goal. Will replace my bond fund as soon as someone creates a cheaper index version.
    Feb 28, 2013. 06:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Companies With A Long History Of Strong ROE And Dividend Increases [View article]
    Concur, its the most interesting on your list for me as well. I think they are nestled into a safe spot in the sense that the gov't will prop up their business on both ends of the market cycle; stimulus to improve employment at some basic level during bear markets and rising rates during times of so-called full employment. Rich valuation but you never know when opportunity will knock
    Feb 22, 2013. 02:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Companies With A Long History Of Strong ROE And Dividend Increases [View article]
    PAYX said they earned 1.2% on the float this year, but I don't know what the "normalized" returns are, obviously higher, but I don't really know. Because of the short time period between money in and money out PAYX is very limited in the kinds of investments that they can make, totally different than long term float like at insurance companies with long dated policies. Also much lower risk (you would hope). I found a line in the annual report that says they earn about 7% of total revenue from interest income but they don't state any assumptions about changes in the interest rate.

    If you were referring to the difference in length of float between written checks and direct deposit, there isn't any. The company receives payments from customers in advance and has a fixed holding period before processing payments. While you would think that a check that gets sat on by an employee before being cashed would increase float time, PAYX has to guarantee payments and fund accessibility and therefore cannot invest this sort of leftover capital.

    If I misinterpreted your point please clarify and I'll try again
    Feb 22, 2013. 08:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Companies With A Long History Of Strong ROE And Dividend Increases [View article]
    PAYX offers direct deposit, doesn't effect their business at all. You can look it up, they charge a direct deposit fee per customer (of $12.50 along with additional fees for W-2 forms ($2.50),etc, etc), and really direct deposit saves them money (no postage, less printing,etc).
    Feb 21, 2013. 08:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advice For Capitol Federal Financial, Inc.: Pay More Special Dividends And Stop The Share Buybacks [View article]
    I'm a customer but not a stockholder. The bank has a stated policy to payout 100% of earnings to stockholders. So $0.30 per year plus a year end special div of whatever is leftover. My take away from this and your articles is that CFFN can't profitably write loans currently and this is why the div policy and share buybacks. It seems that they are following your advice of disposing of equity, if not necessarily in the way that you would have them go about it.

    My question is has the company stated a rational for the buyback programs? They initiated a pretty strong buyback program immediately after the thrift conversion, so it seems they had planned for it in advance, they must have some sort of reasoning. If I was on the board I'd rather give myself a bigger dividend then retire shares. Are they just hoping interest rates go back up?

    Good articles and thanks for the work on such a small company, not a lot of well informed articles come out about ks banks.
    Feb 21, 2013. 03:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Aflac And Japan [View article]
    the most important thing to note here is that investors seem (I can't account for all of them) to be concerned about two things here

    1) Yen/USD
    2) the investment (bond) portfolio

    the first "problem" is completely outside the control of the company and will have little impact on the actual business being valued. As you very well noted in the article.

    the second problem, maybe they did over expose themselves to European denominated bonds, is still largely outside of their control but could have a much larger impact on the actual business.

    In either case the actual underlying performance of the business is not being called into question. Thus, I would have to think that this presents an opportunity to own a great business faced with a temporary setback.
    Feb 13, 2013. 12:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For Intel [View article]
    Now we're just grasping at straws... a bit of an embarassment really

    Intel announces on line TV service,

    http://reut.rs/Wjv0ZH

    Do not expect an article detailing their complete lack of a competitive position against the likes of Netflix, Disney, and Amazon
    Feb 12, 2013. 06:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why General Dynamics Shares Appear Headed Down To $60 [View article]
    I'm hoping for sequestration (because I'm a potential investor, not a current investor) followed by a repeat of the strategy put to such good use in 1992 when the cold war ended; namely, the selling or spinning off of non-core franchises and repurchasing of shares - worked last time. Comments Novakovic has made about some of GD's acquisitions suggests she wouldn't shed any tears at losing some parts of the portfolio. But price would have to be in the 50's to attract my attention
    Feb 4, 2013. 07:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Your Portfolio Can Get Fat On Fast Food In Brazil [View article]
    You claim that "The company also has an agreement with Coca-Cola (KO) that makes BOBS stores the exclusive restaurant outlets in Brazil for Coca-Cola products."

    stop and think about what a ridiculous claim that is. You can buy a coke at damn near every restaurant in this country just like everywhere else on planet earth. Like Coke would be stupid enough to cap their POS's to 900 some odd locations in a country the size of Brasil.

    Furthermore, a simple glance at 10 yr financial data shows that BOBS gross margins and operating margins are half of MCD's.

    And finally, BOBS competitive advantages are grossly overstated. The market here in Brasil was relatively speaking under represented by fast food chains but now we have McD's and BK (the later of which is owned by a Brasileiro). Both of those international chains have better bargaining power with suppliers due to scale and vastly superior brand recognition as well as ad spend. In an industry with no switching costs. When the tourists come for the world cup and olympics they will eat what they are familiar with, just like the have done at every other international sporting event. BOBS is an overpriced imitation about to be replaced by the real thing.
    Feb 4, 2013. 12:16 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Loews: The Perennial Value Stock [View article]
    i get it, but i don't think it makes a meaningful difference

    The full amount of debt is reflected in both holdings (both at CNA and at L) so the market price of CNA is still a valid guide for its "fair value". Since neither company is hiding its debts.

    in L's annual reports they show consolidated earnings and break it down by holding

    at the end of the day L will probably never sell any of its holdings, the stocks are just a proxy for valuing the company's stake.
    Jan 7, 2013. 08:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2013 Ahead: Dreamworks Will Soar [View article]
    I've been reading bull articles on DWA for years, the best of which is by Andrew August aka Frogs Kiss (no offense, I liked your article), claiming that DWA's accounting principles require them to undervalue the film library and that the stock is significantly undervalued therefore. But I don't agree. The library value isn't as strong as people think. The 9 yr old who loved Kung Fu Panda will likely have outgrown the genre by the time the sequel comes out (DWA films take between 3 and 5 yrs to create). These characters have to be reinvented and resold anew with each release and the vast over-supply of films limits the likelyhood of generational hits like Cinderella from happening again.

    DWA is an earnings growth story, as the author points out, with an expanding production schedule, new venture in china, and opportunities to cross sell intellectual property to live shows, cruise ships and theme parks, etc. It will be a bumpy ride.

    The question you need to ask yourself is if the company can continue to reach larger audiences as the average earnings per viewer continues to fall across the industry.
    Jan 7, 2013. 08:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Loews: The Perennial Value Stock [View article]
    hi cesc thanks for taking the time to comment

    i've given your question some thought and i keep returning to the same response...

    the consolidated liabilities are (well should be) reflected in the market price of the underlying securities. specifically, the heavy discount to book of CNA accounts for a large portion of L's liabilities at the conglomerate level. if the market prices of the underlying stocks were "out of whack" (DO looks a little lofty but not unreasonably so) then i think you would have a very valid claim against the parent company, but since the portfolio parts seem pretty fairly valued i think sum of parts analysis holds up.

    hope that answers your concerns, if not just try me again and we'll see if we can reach a better answer.
    Jan 7, 2013. 08:08 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio And Market Stages [View article]
    something wrong with PERM?
    Jan 1, 2013. 08:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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