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Anthony Grossi

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  • Understanding An Investment In Timber REITs [View article]
    Great first article
    Mar 15 10:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Contrarian Idea: Buying Natural Gas When Everyone Hates It [View article]
    there are safer ways to play power markets than directly betting on henry hub prices.

    mlp's benefit from low nat gas price, as do chemical companies

    IPPs benefit from rising gas prices.

    so if you think nat gas will go up it might be better to go long NRG, or EXC and hedge it with a stock like EPD or ASH ?

    just depends on what kind of investor you are, I'm pretty conservative.
    Feb 16 12:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • NRG Will Buck Natural Gas Glut [View article]
    SO is a regulated utility and thus trades in step with interest rates, as it is in essence an income security.

    EXC and NRG are primarily Independent Power Producers (IPPs) and trade in step with the spot price for power
    Feb 15 11:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Selling My Target Date Funds [View article]
    with 10% cash and 18% exposure to europe of course it underperformed the S&P for the very short time range you were invested.

    I'm an SA contributor and have held Vanguard STAR fund since highschool, which is the textbook example of an amateurs all in one fund. I continue to own it because balanced funds work and it has an unbeatable expense ratio. Since I don't have access to DFA funds VGSTX is the closest thing to a global index balanced fund I can find.

    They also underperform when equities get hot. So what.

    If you look at a chart for FFFHX it has almost exactly matched the return of the S&P since inception (2006). I don't understand your argument of dumping a fund and deviating from your retirement plan just because the fund underperformed a benchmark it doesn't even purport to track.

    Why target date funds? Its the cheapest easiest way to build a global index portfolio that adjusts its bond exposure for you as you age. If they had existed back when I got started I would have bought one.

    Instead of giving up an target date funds why don't you quite Fidelity for Dimension Fund Advisers or Vanguard?
    Feb 6 10:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • WD-40: It Could Happen To Anyone [View article]

    important point to note. An explosion like with your GFS or at Union Carbine (my personal disaster stock was UNH and the subsequent back dating options scandal) is a permanent impairment and you should dump the stock when such news arrives. On the other hand an earnings miss at an otherwise sound company (WD40 possibly) can often be an opportunity to add to a position. Risk management is the name of the game. Of course the obvious counter example is Marlboro Friday; what looked like a permanent impairment was actually a brilliant, daring competitive move.
    Jan 12 04:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Schwab: An Island of Sanity [View article]
    Interest rates.

    If (when) interest rates return to 1.25%, then SCHW will realize a revenue increase of approx. $500M to $600M annually from fee waivers on money market accts. Also, since 35% of rev. is from interest, this portion of income will rise. Third, since higher rates reward savings, AUM should also benefit from rising rates. Finally, rising rates implies economic stability if not growth and SCHW benefits from consumer base with money to invest.

    Details in the link from original post.
    Nov 29 10:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Battle Of The Brands Match-Up 1: Pepsi Vs. Coca-Cola [View article]
    re: returns for KO vs. PEP.
    PEP had higher returns for 02 thru 08. That trend broke down with the great recession, and the flight to safety theory reiterates if you look at a 3 month chart. If you go back to the mid- 90's PEP totally dominates KO. So which trend line am I fighting? In the long run PEP is the second best soda company and the number one crisps company, hardly tilting at windmills. If you can buy a high quality company like that (or like KO obviously) at a price you're willing to pay, odds are in your favour.

    The articles' peer to peer numbers comparison should be expected to result in KO having a slight premium b/c its the industry leader.
    Goes Without Sayin
    Sep 22 12:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Stocks For The World's Best Dividend Portfolio [View article]
    I'm going to have to disagree with MO. Falling sales volumes for years can only be offset by price hikes for so long until you hit an inflection point. Other MO product categories like smokeless and alcohol have significantly lower margins and thus shouldn't be expected to make up the difference in earnings.
    KMI, VOD, XOM, KO stalwarts each.
    Since you already have KO as a consumer staple I would look at replacing MO with maybe a diversified healthcare (ABT, JNJ) or branch out and try either an industrial or transportation stock the world probably couldn't work without (CNI, EXPD, GE, 3M).
    Sep 16 06:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rooting for a Crash [View article]
    "I'm only a middle class IT worker, but I'm aspiring to be rich someday. I give to charity of my own accord, but I say screw the government when they think they can be more charitable than me with my own hard-earned money."

    its easy to be generous with other people's money
    Jul 28 01:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Asset Allocation, From Nirvana to Nightmare [View article]
    you and your contrarian ideas. worst case scenario large cap value acts like an infinite duration bond with rising rates and you only beat the treasury markets, more likely outcome is you get index returns with a higher dividend kicker. (b/c the major indices are cap weighted)
    Jul 27 07:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Western Union: Old Name, New Opportunities [View article]
    New development regarding WU
    So basically the CFPB is considering putting on cap on remittance transaction fees like they did with swipe fees at V and MA. Best to sit on the sidelines until this issue gets resolved.
    Jul 21 06:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Western Union: Old Name, New Opportunities [View article]
    Martin you're ignoring that we had a major recession very shortly after WU was spun off from FDC. One that severely hurt the US housing industry, which hires a lot of migrants. The company has increased shareholder equity, increased its dividend, bought back shares, grown eps, generated impressive free cash flows and returns on equity. The market is over emphasizing weakness in the US - Mexico corridor transaction volume, WU is becoming a much more global brand and expanding its market share in mature markets, even in the face of weak employment.

    This link highlights some of the opportunities WU has to expand its product offerings using new technology
    Jul 17 04:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Altria Group Still Has Upside [View article]
    Thank you for your reply Mr. Maniere,

    You're,of course, absolutely right about the addicting nature of smoking allowing for inelastic demand and near infinite pricing power. The analogy I choose regarding book sales was admittedly inapt. The alternatives I was thinking of are either a) quitting or b) choosing smokeless products, c) electronic cigarettes, or finally d) black market or counterfeit cigarettes. The adoption rate of all four of those choices could gain traction in the market place as a result of pricing (rather than health concerns or restrictions on public use). I know from my quarterly conference calls that the Marlboro brand in particular is struggling with counterfeits, though mostly oversees, and that e-cigs and smokeless products are showing modest growth as traditional cigarette volumes continue to decline. Cigarette producers such as MO should be able to offset declining volumes with regular price increases for the foreseeable future, but I fret about a day when those price and demand curves take an ominous turn. As for the FDA regulations, the US government has shown short-sightedness and a willingness to operate at a loss in the past. It is often this threat of death by regulation that makes tobacco companies compelling value ideas. I wish that I would have had the foresight to invest in LO ahead of the FDA proposals regarding mentholated and flavored tobacco, as demographics show that most of today's young adult smokers prefer these products.
    Jun 22 07:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cato's Board Should Unlock Its True Value [View article]
    CATO seems to be proactive about closing under-performing stores, so any real growth in locations takes a back seat to old fashioned profitability. I find it ironic to read a post commenting on managements hoarding cash and opening stores too slowly in retail. Usually the opposites the problem. Fashion is fickle and I tend to stay out of the sector but way to dig into an under followed small cap and find a quality pick. Have you given much consideration to the idea that a real economic recovery (one that creates jobs for the middle/working class) could actually hurt the company as the juniors/misses category trade up to brand name stores?
    May 20 02:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Star Scientific Just Announced They Cured Alzheimer's Disease and Nobody Cares [View article]
    what, no in depth examination of how interluekin affects cardiovascular blood flow? Just kidding...

    Longer term I think you are right about this stock but I was under the impression that the inflammaging human clinical trial was part of the process for CIGX's Stonewall Moist BDL being allowed to show the levels of tobacco carcinogens on labeling and packaging.

    Even if the alzheimer's cure doesn't happen you can still make money when Altria buys the company out for its MRTP patents.

    This is what to look for in a spec stock. This company is either worth nothing or ten plus times what it trades for now. Black-Scholes models can't price options on a stock like this.
    Mar 1 09:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment