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Antonio Carradinha

 
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  • Update: Oi S.A. Q2 '14 Earnings
    Thu, Aug. 7 OIBR 20 Comments

    Summary

    • Oi reported weak results for Q2 '14.
    • The company has high debt and needs to generate additional cash flow.
    • As I've stated in my original article, Oi may be a good investment with a time horizon of 2 to 3 years.
  • Update: Cornerstone Q2 '14 Earnings
    Thu, Aug. 7 CSOD 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Cornerstone is still investing for the future.
    • It's significant that the company is working for clients all over the world.
    • In my original article I've stated that the company was a long-term play.
  • Banco Espirito Santo: The Way An Insolvent Bank Turns Into A Good Bank
    Tue, Aug. 5 CRARY, ESFHF, BKESY 2 Comments

    Summary

    • The overwhelming disaster of the Espirito Santo Group has contaminated Banco Espirito Santo.
    • From a bank with no possible survival to a good bank: everything happened in four days.
    • A special legislation to assist troubled banks of the European Union was used for the first time with this Portuguese bank.
  • Update: TIM Participações Q2 '14 Earnings Show Potential For Development
    Fri, Aug. 1 TSU, TI, TEF Comment!

    Summary

    • TIM is an important player in Brazil's mobile telecommunications business.
    • The role of Telefonica is crucial to understand TIM's future.
    • As I have mentioned in my original article TIM's strong market position may determine several options including a takeover.
  • Update: Lloyds H1 '14 Earnings In The Path Of Dividends
    Fri, Aug. 1 LYG 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Lloyds is still dealing with legacy charges which hurt profits.
    • Strategic plans have strengthened the balance sheet to a significant extent.
    • In my original article, I've stated that the bank would reach sustained development.
  • Update: Fiat Q2 '14 Earnings Disappoint
    Thu, Jul. 31 FIATY 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Fiat and Chrysler remain working to solve merger issues.
    • Results of the second quarter were disappointing.
    • In my original article, I've stated my belief in the medium-term upside potential.
  • Update: GOL Traffic Figures For Q2 2014 Are Significant
    Mon, Jul. 28 GOL 6 Comments

    Summary

    • GOL reached its highest ever load factor in Q2 2014.
    • The company remains focused on growing strongly in international market.
    • In my original article I have stated that this strategy is key to the company.
  • Update: Cal-Maine Foods Q4 '14 Earnings With Enlightening Results
    Mon, Jul. 28 CALM 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Cal-Maine is a family owned company that is the largest producer of shell eggs in the United States.
    • The company has been expanding steadily for decades, and has recorded sales growth at a 13.6% CAGR between 2007 and 2013.
    • Confirming its upside potential earnings report for 2014 has reached my higher expectations.
  • Update: Wayside Q2 '14 Earnings With Mixed Results
    Mon, Jul. 28 WSTG Comment!

    Summary

    • Q2 '14 results were mixed, but Wayside preserves a high dividend yield.
    • Competition remains strong and pricing pressure is significant.
    • In my original article, I've stated that gross margin is a key metric that has to be improved.
  • Oi SA And Portugal Telecom Have Signed A New Memorandum Of Understanding For The Merger
    Wed, Jul. 16 PT, OIBR 16 Comments

    Summary

    • Confirming unsolvable financial problems Rioforte defaulted on the payment of €847M to PT.
    • This outcome is very negative for PT, but the two companies have signed a new Memorandum of Understandingfor the merger.
    • The likelihood of this situation was already being advanced in my previous article.
  • Update: Oi Will Merge With Portugal Telecom Under What Conditions?
    Fri, Jul. 11 PT, OIBR, ESFHF 68 Comments

    Summary

    • Oi has asked clarification from PT regarding a €897M subscription of commercial paper issued by Rioforte, a member of Grupo Espirito Santo (GES).
    • GES has huge financial problems which means that probably Rioforte will default leading to highly significant losses for PT and an urgent need to modify the merger terms.
    • As we have predicted, it seems that GES alone has no acceptable options which may indicate not only default but its complete impossibility to find a solution on the medium-term.
  • Oi: The Merger Is At A Stage Of Suspense
    Mon, Jul. 7 PT, OIBR 30 Comments

    Summary

    • A merger that is taking too long to implement.
    • Oi and PT seem to be far from each other in terms of management.
    • The future has to be different in order to meet the real potential of the company.
  • Investing In Quality With My 85/15 Portfolio
    Wed, Jun. 25 CSOD, HIMX, JNJ 33 Comments

    Summary

    • A portfolio to achieve long-term capital appreciation.
    • Only quality stocks, and a time horizon of 20 years.
    • Dynamic management and reinvestment are crucial.
  • Cornerstone Is A Growth Company In Search Of A Bright Future
       • Sat, Jun. 14 CRM, N, ULTI 6 Comments

    Summary

    • The company is a small cap, but has become a global leader of cloud-based talent management.
    • Cornerstone is investing heavily in order to grow around 45% annually over the next years.
    • The company has great potential to gain market share, and a promising customer base will lead to profits within a couple of years.
  • GOL Is Growing, But Remains Out Of Profits - Here's Why
       • Tue, Jun. 10 GOL Comment!

    Summary

    • After 3 consecutive years of losses, GOL has failed to return to profits in the first quarter of 2014.
    • Jet fuel prices and US Dollar/Real exchange rate have remained in negative levels.
    • International market demand is very promising, and the company has adequate partnerships with larger airlines.
    • Given positive estimates for the rest of the year, valuation previously made remains completely valid.
  • NewStar May Be Acquired And Rise Strongly; If Not, Another Down-Leg Is Likely
       • Wed, May. 14 NEWS 3 Comments

    Summary

    • NewStar Financial is a specialty lender with around $2.5B in assets that has a limited growth potential.
    • With steady profits in the last three years, along with a clean balance sheet, the company seems to stay on the radar of larger banks.
    • Share prices have been in a downtrend since December, and have lost around 45% of its value as sale expectations have failed to materialize.
    • If the company intends to remain independent it has to struggle and most probably get a new business plan.
    • If NewStar agrees to be sold in the short-term it may be worth around 1.4x book value, or $17.80 per share - a 55% upside.
  • Kodak's Fresh New Start May Be An Opportunity For Investors, But Caution Is The Buzzword
       • Fri, May. 9 KODK 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Kodak has been a company with a long and extremely valuable history; now, its fresh new start is an opportunity to show its ability to innovate.
    • The company filed for Chapter 11 protection in early 2012, and has emerged for a new life in September 3, 2013.
    • Kodak is no longer producing cameras, has discontinued several businesses, and has sold the licenses of 20,000 patents.
    • The company - reorganized and lean - is now in the competitive business of commercial printing technology; innovative new products are also being developed.
    • Valuation has a few tricky assumptions, and medium-term projections are subject to relevant risks; it is essential to analyze the situation throughout this year. For now, I'm on the sidelines.
  • GOL Will Fly Higher And Faster With The Help Of New Partners
       • Tue, Apr. 22 GOL 7 Comments

    Summary

    • GOL has a business plan suited to its main business risks: the oil price and the exchange rate of the dollar against the real.
    • After years of profits, the company had to contain costs, boost revenue and optimize supply.
    • An excellent Loyalty Program and extended strategic partnerships with Delta and Air France-KLM are key factors for its development.
    • After a high loss in 2008, GOL returned to negative territory in the last three years; the company has a turnaround in progress.
    • With an improving 4Q13 and a demanding strategy plan, the company can sustain risks, stimulate the business, and represent a promising investment.
  • Cal-Maine Foods: An Obvious Case Study With A Remarkable Catalyst For 75% Upside
       • Tue, Apr. 8 CALM 24 Comments

    Summary

    • With a market capitalization of $1.48B, Cal-Maine is the largest producer of shell eggs in the United States.
    • Cal-Maine is a company that has grown firmly throughout decades. Once a target for short positions, the company is now free from this problem.
    • The company has been a leader in industry consolidation and its growth strategy is more than ever strongly based in acquisitions.
    • Sales have been increasing at a steady pace; while selling prices are up and feed costs down, demand remains very strong, and value added products are gaining market share.
    • Stock prices have maintained an upward long-term trend; with strong catalysts, valuation of ~$2.64B leads to 75% upside.
  • Wayside: Consistency, Great Dividend, Rising Profits, And Upside Potential
       • Mon, Mar. 24 NSIT, PCMI, WSTG 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Wayside is an undervalued micro-cap offering sophisticated information technology solutions, and it focus on niche market segments.
    • The company has no debt, has been profitable for over a decade, and pays a dividend yield of 4.33%.
    • Being a solid company, it has plenty of room to develop the business, and can be a great investment.
    • To significantly boost net income the company needs to increase gross margin just slightly; if it succeeds, valuation of ~$122M would lead to 60% upside.
  • TIM Gets An Unexpected Catalyst: Sale To The Liking Of Authorities, 40% Upside
       • Tue, Mar. 18 OIBR, PT, TEF 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Telecom Italia, which has been experiencing financial problems, holds a 67% stake in TIM, the second-largest Brazilian telecommunications company.
    • TIM is having a good performance, especially when compared to its peers, and its value may increase accordingly.
    • Telefonica dominates the management of Telecom Italia; considering that it also owns VIVO, leader of the Brazilian market, Anatel wants a quick solution in terms of market consolidation.
    • TIM shareholders are in a winning position. While there is the option of joining with GVT, the most likely outcome is the sale and division of assets by its rivals.
    • If Telecom Italia agrees to sell all of TIM's assets in parts to its peer group, share prices will tend to rise consistently. Valuation of ~$16B leads to 40% upside.
  • Tesla: A Crazy Bubble, A Valuable Investment, Or A Project With Truly Gigantic Potential?
    Tue, Mar. 4 TSLA 69 Comments
  • Is The Euro Worth 38% More Than The Dollar?
    Mon, Feb. 24 FXE, UUP, EUO 16 Comments
  • GOL: Will It Fly Higher After February 26th?
    Thu, Feb. 20 GOL 6 Comments
  • Fiat Chrysler Automobiles: A New Life, 80% Upside
    Mon, Feb. 17 FIATY 11 Comments
  • Goldman Sachs Will Climb Soon
    Wed, Feb. 12 GS 5 Comments
  • Cal-Maine Foods: This Solid Company Is A Buy
    Mon, Feb. 10 CALM 9 Comments
  • Japanese Stocks Crash: What To Do?
    Fri, Feb. 7 EWJ 11 Comments
  • Oi And Portugal Telecom: A Merger That Can Be A Great Opportunity
    Fri, Feb. 7 PT, OIBR 46 Comments
  • Apple: A Piggy Bank Forever?
    Wed, Feb. 5 AAPL 22 Comments
  • Lloyds: Announced IPO Can Be A Resounding Success
    Sun, Feb. 2 LYG 15 Comments
  • Junior Gold Miners: Is This The Wake Up After A Nightmare?
    Tue, Jan. 28 ANV, EXK, GLD 14 Comments