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Antonio Carradinha

 
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  • Update: Fiat Q2 '14 Earnings Disappoint [View article]
    Although I am out of time to write lately (I'll be back soon) I want to respond to your comment.

    One thing is certain: Fiat Chrysler needs a lot of money to develop the business to an high level. Thus, the sale of an independent brand is an excellent choice. In this case, Ferrari spin-off is far wiser than the sale of Alfa Romeo for example.

    Ferrari is a brand loved and admired by almost all the world, and has no rival at the time. That's why, in my opinion, I accept that Maserati must have a different strategy although it has shown growth out of the ordinary.

    Antonio
    Oct 31, 2014. 03:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Novo Banco Is The Clean Brother Of BES: A Dramatic Case Study In Progress [View article]
    Hi da'zman,

    Thanks for commenting.

    Novo Banco may still need additional provisions on restructured loans.
    But it's possible that the €4.2B of provisions added to the existent ones in 1H14 may be a fair parcel of what is needed. Nobody can know that at this stage, but it's important not to forget that Novo Banco is the "good bank" without the toxic products and financial problems that stayed in BES ("bad bank").

    Moreover, Novo Banco will soon be sold. One way to do this is through an IPO. It is a mere possibility, but in any case it is very likely that the Novo Banco may be listed in Lisbon. Unless it is purchased and integrated into a large bank.

    As you have noticed, I made no assessment of Novo Banco. €3.5B-€4B is a mere assumption on the following provisional bases (not expressed in the article because there is not enough information):

    1. Profits from 2015 onwards.
    2. Progressive recovery of market share and profit growth (at a ~10% CAGR).
    3. Terminal Value calculated on the 5th year representing about €2.6B-€3.2B (average NPV of around €1.8B).
    4. Discount Rate: 10%

    All that is a tentative food for thought.

    Regards,
    Antonio
    Sep 24, 2014. 09:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Oi S.A. Q2 '14 Earnings [View article]
    Hi Russom,

    The company hasn't yet informed the market about it, but in my opinion it should not pay dividends at this stage.

    Antonio
    Sep 8, 2014. 02:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Fiat Q2 '14 Earnings Disappoint [View article]
    Hi Tales From The Future,

    Thanks for the input.

    It is obvious that before the confirmation of the merger, there were several scenarios for the firm. The Agnelli family seemed to be considering options for the future. When it became certain that the cost of shareholders against the merger would not reach €500M, the issue was finally clarified, and the initial plan won't seem to suffer any modification.

    Even so, the launch of the Alfa C4 has a questionable competitiveness given its high cost in the American market. The plan for the Alfa Romeo brand seems to have some risks and may have to be reconsidered later though I still think it's a good bet. On the other hand, Lancia is actually on standby waiting perhaps a still unknown opportunity in the future. For now it's only indicated the continuation of the Ypsilon model.

    Antonio
    Sep 4, 2014. 06:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Oi S.A. Q2 '14 Earnings [View article]

    Telefonica bid for GVT will probably be successful. Then Vivo will merge with GVT strengthening its position as market leader. Therefore, there is room for the other top Brazilian mobile phone carriers to respond, and OIBR move is in the right direction.

    Antonio
    Aug 29, 2014. 02:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Oi S.A. Q2 '14 Earnings [View article]
    Buying TIM was the initial plan back in 2013. Let's see what is Oi's real financial capacity to buy 67% of TIM now. Probably, it will be in partnership with Claro (owned by America Movil).

    Antonio
    Aug 27, 2014. 01:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Oi S.A. Q2 '14 Earnings [View article]
    Hi John,

    Thanks for the kind words.

    Oi is in no danger of seeing its shares dropping until they have an almost complete devaluation. I still think that the alliance even with a company like Portugal Telecom which is weaker now will represent a good step for the future. Both companies - merged or merely with a common shareholder basis - will have excellent know-how, innovation ability, marketing skills and will be well positioned throughout Brazil.

    Naturally, the problems that have affected both companies and that have been mentioned in my articles and respective comments have led Oi to a less important role in the consolidation process of telecoms in Brazil.

    Probably, there will be no capital increase in the near future because TIM is not a target for Oi anymore. So, it's possible that no major dilution will happen for now.

    Antonio
    Aug 26, 2014. 09:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Lloyds H1 '14 Earnings In The Path Of Dividends [View article]
    Hi Raife,

    Thanks for your comment.

    I agree with you completely. In my original article I have stated that "it is sensible to consider the hypothesis of a very large enhancement in case Lloyds begins, increasingly, to distribute significant dividends. In that event, the price could do much better within 5 to 7 years and go near 2007 highs."

    Simply put, LYG has been an excellent investment, but it will probably be an even more valuable long-term play.

    Antonio
    Aug 24, 2014. 01:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Cornerstone Q2 '14 Earnings [View article]

    Thanks for the link, William!
    Aug 21, 2014. 04:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Oi S.A. Q2 '14 Earnings [View article]
    There is a tentative date: December 31, 2014.

    Antonio
    Aug 19, 2014. 08:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Cal-Maine Foods Q4 '14 Earnings With Enlightening Results [View article]
    Hi NL2,

    Thanks for the input and the kind words.

    Given that summer is the low season for eggs, I was pleased with the fourth quarter results.

    Antonio
    Aug 18, 2014. 11:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Banco Espirito Santo: The Way An Insolvent Bank Turns Into A Good Bank [View article]
    Still don't know when BKESY delist from OTC market will happen.
    Aug 18, 2014. 08:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Oi S.A. Q2 '14 Earnings [View article]
    Correction:

    I meant "Good luck to you".

    Antonio
    Aug 12, 2014. 01:31 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Oi S.A. Q2 '14 Earnings [View article]
    Hi invest2bfree,

    In the OI/PT merger there were several mistakes, highly debatable decisions and everything is taking too long.

    Surely you have your strategy. But in my opinion - although the share price could drop further - Oi may present a significant upside potential in the medium to long term. it has to be noted that they are trading at a P/B of 0.45 and a P/S of 0.38.

    God luck to you.

    Antonio
    Aug 11, 2014. 05:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Oi Will Merge With Portugal Telecom Under What Conditions? [View article]
    Hi StandupWall,

    This merger is in a state of confusion not only in Brazil but also in Portugal. However, I just don't agree with your opinion (is it reliable information?) that the merger isn't going to be approved by the Portuguese side. Let's see: PT has lost almost 40% of its value with Rioforte debt and this has absolutely nothing to do with the merger: it was a problem of PT that has been brought to the merger which is entirely different. And PT share prices have really plummeted after that situation, not before. So PT's minority shareholders have to blame PT not the merger. On the contrary, Oi's minority shareholders have been hit hard by all sorts of complications this merger has been showing.

    Antonio
    Aug 11, 2014. 04:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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