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Antonio Carradinha  

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  • Update: Lloyds H1 '14 Earnings In The Path Of Dividends [View article]
    Hi Raife,

    In my opinion, negative surprises related to legacy issues will tend to be of little relevance. I think that in all likelihood LYG will return to pay dividends from now on.

    On the share price I see a stabilization in the short term due to the expectation that the Government will sell its entire stake. But in the medium/long term I still think that the upside potential is huge.

    Jan 23, 2015. 01:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Lloyds H1 '14 Earnings In The Path Of Dividends [View article]
    Hi sam,

    It is expected that Lloyds will announce a dividend payment for 2014 at the time of its annual report on 27 February.

    Jan 21, 2015. 08:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Serious Problems In The European Union Will Drag The Euro Down [View article]
    Hi Rinascimento,

    Thanks for reading and commenting my article.

    My analysis is aimed to the evolution of the euro exchange rate against the dollar. Of course, the specific analysis of the euro is very important because the single currency is in crisis.

    The euro is down for almost a year against the dollar, obviously not followed by the dollar. Everything is interconnect now, but we have to study currencies which have different evolution trends.

    Jan 7, 2015. 01:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Fiat Q2 '14 Earnings Disappoint [View article]
    Although I am out of time to write lately (I'll be back soon) I want to respond to your comment.

    One thing is certain: Fiat Chrysler needs a lot of money to develop the business to an high level. Thus, the sale of an independent brand is an excellent choice. In this case, Ferrari spin-off is far wiser than the sale of Alfa Romeo for example.

    Ferrari is a brand loved and admired by almost all the world, and has no rival at the time. That's why, in my opinion, I accept that Maserati must have a different strategy although it has shown growth out of the ordinary.

    Oct 31, 2014. 03:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Novo Banco Is The Clean Brother Of BES: A Dramatic Case Study In Progress [View article]
    Hi da'zman,

    Thanks for commenting.

    Novo Banco may still need additional provisions on restructured loans.
    But it's possible that the €4.2B of provisions added to the existent ones in 1H14 may be a fair parcel of what is needed. Nobody can know that at this stage, but it's important not to forget that Novo Banco is the "good bank" without the toxic products and financial problems that stayed in BES ("bad bank").

    Moreover, Novo Banco will soon be sold. One way to do this is through an IPO. It is a mere possibility, but in any case it is very likely that the Novo Banco may be listed in Lisbon. Unless it is purchased and integrated into a large bank.

    As you have noticed, I made no assessment of Novo Banco. €3.5B-€4B is a mere assumption on the following provisional bases (not expressed in the article because there is not enough information):

    1. Profits from 2015 onwards.
    2. Progressive recovery of market share and profit growth (at a ~10% CAGR).
    3. Terminal Value calculated on the 5th year representing about €2.6B-€3.2B (average NPV of around €1.8B).
    4. Discount Rate: 10%

    All that is a tentative food for thought.

    Sep 24, 2014. 09:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Oi S.A. Q2 '14 Earnings [View article]
    Hi Russom,

    The company hasn't yet informed the market about it, but in my opinion it should not pay dividends at this stage.

    Sep 8, 2014. 02:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Fiat Q2 '14 Earnings Disappoint [View article]
    Hi Tales From The Future,

    Thanks for the input.

    It is obvious that before the confirmation of the merger, there were several scenarios for the firm. The Agnelli family seemed to be considering options for the future. When it became certain that the cost of shareholders against the merger would not reach €500M, the issue was finally clarified, and the initial plan won't seem to suffer any modification.

    Even so, the launch of the Alfa C4 has a questionable competitiveness given its high cost in the American market. The plan for the Alfa Romeo brand seems to have some risks and may have to be reconsidered later though I still think it's a good bet. On the other hand, Lancia is actually on standby waiting perhaps a still unknown opportunity in the future. For now it's only indicated the continuation of the Ypsilon model.

    Sep 4, 2014. 06:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Oi S.A. Q2 '14 Earnings [View article]

    Telefonica bid for GVT will probably be successful. Then Vivo will merge with GVT strengthening its position as market leader. Therefore, there is room for the other top Brazilian mobile phone carriers to respond, and OIBR move is in the right direction.

    Aug 29, 2014. 02:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Oi S.A. Q2 '14 Earnings [View article]
    Buying TIM was the initial plan back in 2013. Let's see what is Oi's real financial capacity to buy 67% of TIM now. Probably, it will be in partnership with Claro (owned by America Movil).

    Aug 27, 2014. 01:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Oi S.A. Q2 '14 Earnings [View article]
    Hi John,

    Thanks for the kind words.

    Oi is in no danger of seeing its shares dropping until they have an almost complete devaluation. I still think that the alliance even with a company like Portugal Telecom which is weaker now will represent a good step for the future. Both companies - merged or merely with a common shareholder basis - will have excellent know-how, innovation ability, marketing skills and will be well positioned throughout Brazil.

    Naturally, the problems that have affected both companies and that have been mentioned in my articles and respective comments have led Oi to a less important role in the consolidation process of telecoms in Brazil.

    Probably, there will be no capital increase in the near future because TIM is not a target for Oi anymore. So, it's possible that no major dilution will happen for now.

    Aug 26, 2014. 09:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Lloyds H1 '14 Earnings In The Path Of Dividends [View article]
    Hi Raife,

    Thanks for your comment.

    I agree with you completely. In my original article I have stated that "it is sensible to consider the hypothesis of a very large enhancement in case Lloyds begins, increasingly, to distribute significant dividends. In that event, the price could do much better within 5 to 7 years and go near 2007 highs."

    Simply put, LYG has been an excellent investment, but it will probably be an even more valuable long-term play.

    Aug 24, 2014. 01:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Cornerstone Q2 '14 Earnings [View article]

    Thanks for the link, William!
    Aug 21, 2014. 04:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Oi S.A. Q2 '14 Earnings [View article]
    There is a tentative date: December 31, 2014.

    Aug 19, 2014. 08:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Cal-Maine Foods Q4 '14 Earnings With Enlightening Results [View article]
    Hi NL2,

    Thanks for the input and the kind words.

    Given that summer is the low season for eggs, I was pleased with the fourth quarter results.

    Aug 18, 2014. 11:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Banco Espirito Santo: The Way An Insolvent Bank Turns Into A Good Bank [View article]
    Still don't know when BKESY delist from OTC market will happen.
    Aug 18, 2014. 08:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment