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Antonio Carradinha

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  • Wayside: Consistency, Great Dividend, Rising Profits, And Upside Potential [View article]
    Hi joshied,

    Wayside had a long-term resistance at $15.50 which was broken on March, 24 (the day after my article has been written). Then it has climbed too much too quickly. The company was completely in uncharted territory making new highs. RSI was signaling the exaggeration. A correction was necessary, but as it had risen too much it has corrected too heavily.

    Antonio
    Apr 14 04:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oi And Portugal Telecom: A Merger That Can Be A Great Opportunity [View article]
    Hi RPRP,

    On April 1, 2014, Oi's Board of Directors approved the maximum number of shares that may be issued in the primary offering of common and preferred shares. Oi may initially offer 1,917,028,657 common shares and 3,834,057,315 preferred shares, totaling 5,751,085,972 shares, including shares in the form of American Depositary Shares, represented by American Depositary Receipts.

    In fact, you are not eligible for priority subscription if you failed to do this:
    http://bit.ly/RhQJ6T

    This is an Offering to purchase new shares. Please contact The Bank of New York Mellon in order to know everything you have to do later on with your ADRs in this merger process.

    Regards,
    Antonio
    Apr 14 07:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cal-Maine Foods: An Obvious Case Study With A Remarkable Catalyst For 75% Upside [View article]
    Hi eggtrader,

    Thanks for your input, it's important for a healthy discussion.

    I have to say that I don't agree when you say that "the profit party in egg production has been going on much longer than even the most optimistic insiders could of dreamed".

    American egg consumption is growing, egg prices are still very cheap as we may confirm in any long-term inflation adjusted chart. In this industry, supply easily adjust to demand which is crucial. Moreover, we are not in a bubble here. Rather, consumption has plenty to grow for a number of reasons, and prices naturally tend to follow this trend.

    Though Cal-Maine is the number one producer in the world it is a conservative company. I don't see them with much leverage, and they could buy larger companies easily. They are not in a profit party at all, they only have to be consistent.

    Antonio
    Apr 10 12:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cal-Maine Foods: An Obvious Case Study With A Remarkable Catalyst For 75% Upside [View article]
    Hi NL2,

    Thanks for your comment which was a high quality contribution.

    I'm happy you've enjoyed my analysis.

    It's important CALM's intention of adding capacity to replace eggs bought on the spot market. Also seems to me that analyst estimates are too low for Q4.

    Antonio
    Apr 10 07:18 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cal-Maine Foods: An Obvious Case Study With A Remarkable Catalyst For 75% Upside [View article]
    Ok, rdtuck02, thanks for your kind words.

    Antonio
    Apr 10 06:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cal-Maine Foods: An Obvious Case Study With A Remarkable Catalyst For 75% Upside [View article]
    Hi rdtuck02,

    Thank you for reading and commenting my article.

    Can you please elaborate a little more the meaning of your comment?

    Antonio
    Apr 9 06:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cal-Maine Foods: An Obvious Case Study With A Remarkable Catalyst For 75% Upside [View article]
    Thank you, Burt, for reading and commenting.

    About the Ukrainian egg producer Avangard, I think it's a possibility after making a deep research. It was world number 3 in 2012 and seems to have good numbers, but I only looked at a short 1H2013 Key Facts sheet. It's important to study carefully its financial reports, and don't forget that risk is higher than usual there. Ukraine has problems and "production facilities are located in 14 of 24 regions of Ukraine and also in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea". Knowing their exact locations is crucial.
    Good luck.
    Antonio
    Apr 9 12:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cal-Maine Foods: An Obvious Case Study With A Remarkable Catalyst For 75% Upside [View article]
    In order to investigate CALM's strategy, I easily noticed that the market segment of shell eggs doesn't allow any meteoric growth through acquisitions. In any case, CALM will continue to buy smaller companies in the segment, but it has also the chance to grow into other areas of the market. Although management is conservative - which is sometimes a quality - time will come that will open up new horizons.

    As for me, maybe I will write an article on Tyson Foods soon.

    Antonio
    Apr 9 07:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cal-Maine Foods: An Obvious Case Study With A Remarkable Catalyst For 75% Upside [View article]
    Hi seviay,

    Thanks for your kind words.

    I really liked your comment. CALM is a small unknown stock almost not covered by professional analysts. It's virtually a family business, but with large dimension in its market segment. I also like their sound characteristics and well measured progress. In any case, the potential is huge and it doesn't happen because it is the world's largest shell egg company. Its management is highly experienced, and the business is very solid. I know the markets... and I will not be disappointed if my target is reached only a "bit" later. We'll see.
    Regards,
    Antonio
    Apr 8 06:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cal-Maine Foods: An Obvious Case Study With A Remarkable Catalyst For 75% Upside [View article]
    Hi swimjames,

    Thanks for your comment.

    Although English is not my first language, as you said, I'm very careful not to make mistakes. That's exactly what happened in this case. I think I'm quite right here, and you aren't.

    I used "remarkable" as "optimal" or "notable", meaning that an investor who buys a CALM share at $60 or $62 ensures that his losses will not exceed $10-$12 per share (with a stop loss or not). As I believe that the price of CALM will reach $110 by the end of the year, I will have a 1:5 risk/reward, or an excellent or optimal or even remarkable risk/reward.
    A 'remarkable' risk/reward doesn't imply high risk and low reward, but instead a very interesting and low risk/reward ratio of 1:5 in this case.

    I ask you to read the introduction to this paper.
    http://bit.ly/Q0QkEy

    Regards,
    Antonio
    Apr 8 05:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oi And Portugal Telecom: A Merger That Can Be A Great Opportunity [View article]
    Hi Mahendra,

    Market cap is currently around R$5B. Regarding the new Share Offering, the main issue is the demand. Will it be enough? The price is also very important. In this offering, price will be determined by book building in which the company sets the value of the shares that it will sell according to market demand.
    It may happen that the price will be R$1.75-R$2.00 per share which would give $0.78-$0.89 per share. The dilution will be always very large, but the basis for the development of the company will be far better.

    Regards
    Antonio
    Apr 7 07:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oi And Portugal Telecom: A Merger That Can Be A Great Opportunity [View article]
    Hi AKMK,

    Oibr shares are non-voting preferred shares (Friday's close was $1.34)
    Oibr-c voting shares are lesser in number, and trade at a small premium (Friday's close was $1.43).
    That's exactly why 1Oibr-c (voting shares)*0.9211=Oibr (non-voting preferred shares)
    or
    $1.43*0.9211=~$1.34 ("should" trade at $1.32)

    The premium is due to the voting capacity (before the merger). As there will be only one class of stocks after the merger, the exchange terms between shares to be reflected on the merger date only takes into account trading volumes and prices.

    In my view, OI PN, or Oibr stocks should be trading at a premium as it happens in other large companies in Brazil. However, investors give more value to control and voting capacity.

    I hope that helps.
    Antonio
    Apr 5 09:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fiat Chrysler Automobiles: A New Life, 80% Upside [View article]
    Hi DavidHart,

    Thanks for commenting.

    I don't think Fiat will cheapen Chrysler brand. While recovering Chrysler, it was management and technology that saved the company. Certainly, Fiat knows what to do about cars and the Jeep line is no exception.

    Antonio
    Apr 1 07:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wayside: Consistency, Great Dividend, Rising Profits, And Upside Potential [View article]
    Hi chrispw,

    Thanks for your kind words.

    You are right regarding the reduction in taxes. The effective tax rate for 2013 was 32.1% compared to 39.6% in 2012. Naturally, I saw that as a positive factor for the future.

    I'm glad that just after my article share price has climbed 13%. But I agree with your opinion about the trading plan.

    Good luck
    Antonio
    Mar 26 07:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wayside: Consistency, Great Dividend, Rising Profits, And Upside Potential [View article]
    Hi farmed out my savings,

    Thanks for your kind words.

    At last, Wayside has broken up that resistance exactly after my indication. I'm very glad it has happened like that, hope some readers have bought early in the day.

    Antonio
    Mar 24 03:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
262 Comments
176 Likes