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Antonio Sammut

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  • Cheap Oil Prices Do Not Benefit The Economy [View article]

    Good article, although incomplete. While I agree that oil related jobs will be lost, there is no way to know the significance of this compared to the other dynamics that are set into motion with the collapse of oil prices. My thesis is that oil prices will stabilize and that our economy will get a much needed boost from consumers having more money in their pockets.
    Jan 19, 2015. 08:19 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market 2015: A Sector By Sector Valuation Perspective - Part 1 An Overview [View article]
    Tax Efficient

    Try which is the Options Education Council. In addition your brokers website could have a lot of good introductory information. I know that Fidelity does. Another good source is They have introductory, intermediate, and advanced topics on video for free.

    Jan 9, 2015. 10:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market 2015: A Sector By Sector Valuation Perspective - Part 1 An Overview [View article]
    Another excellent article Chuck. I look forward to your sector analysis. Some sectors clearly have the wind at their back. For example, health care due to the aging baby boomers. Other sectors are highly cyclical and dangerous if you do not recognize when they have turned over and headed down. Market perceptions change very fast. For example, the oil shale revolution was going to save us a year ago and today it may no longer be viable.

    I also believe that it is safer for retirees to generate income by writing options rather than holding stocks for dividends. The reason is that it takes a lot less money to generate a given level of income with options than it does with dividends. A slower growth market environment would seem to favor options even more. Most retirees are scared of options or do not want to put the effort to learn how to use them properly.
    Jan 8, 2015. 06:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Likely Happened To Dividend Growth Retirees In The Recessions [View article]
    Dale, Thank you once again for another excellent article that I believe is going to create a lot of discussion. I believe your data clearly shows the power of dividend growth investing. To practice this religion successfully, you must follow its important rules as pointed out by many authors on SA. I believe that one of the important rules is focusing on the value of the business you are a part owner of, rather than the market induced price fluctuations.
    Oct 22, 2014. 08:33 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Not Quite A Death Spiral But A Resounding Bayesian No To IBM As Odds Increase That Buffett Got It Wrong [View article]
    The excellent article on IBM by Peter Greulich describing the problems at IBM also describes the state of affairs of many large established companies that are dying a slow death. The advantage that Warren Buffet has is that if he does not like what he sees, he generally has enough clout to get it changed.
    Oct 20, 2014. 04:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Offshore Drillers Are Now Struggling To Find Customers [View article]

    Thanks for a very good article of off shore drillers. I would have appreciated this information months ago when I followed a bad recommendation to buy ESV. Even though the company looked good and the dividend looked secure, I did not count on the sector getting crushed. I thankfully got out before all the current damage appeared. I also think that there is more damage to come to the sector and I would be very reluctant to get back in until there is good evidence that the worst is over.
    Oct 13, 2014. 07:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Playing This Yo-Yo Market [View article]

    I agree with your assessment that this may be more that a correction. However, no one knows. If this is more than just a correction, the names like APPL and GILD will hold up initially and then sell off as panic sets. I don't think investors should wait until the market is down 20% to get a game plan together and to get more defensive. I think Bret gives some very good advise in this article.
    Oct 12, 2014. 11:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: It Is A Correction, Not A Crash [View article]
    Thank you for another well reasoned article RS. Excellent comment:"This is a correction, not a crash. Nobody knows if it will last a long time or a short time and nobody knows if the market will go into bear mode." I believe that if you are going to stay fully invested no matter what, then it pays to be invested in quality. You will still experience a significant draw down, but you can maintain your confidence knowing you hold great businesses that will weather the storm and recover.
    Oct 11, 2014. 08:38 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Lesson Learned: The Unfortunate Case Of GT Advanced Technologies [View article]
    Bill, Thanks for extracting some lessons from an unfortunate event. I see some other lessons:

    1. If you are going to buy hype instead of solid cash flow and valuation, recognize that you are speculating rather than investing. If you must speculate, stay small to limit your risk.

    2. A surprise bankruptcy catches almost everyone by surprise. However, any single company can come up with a negative surprise short of bankruptcy. If you do not want this kind of negative excitement, look to ETFs, where no single negative surprise should matter much.

    3. If you are investing rather than speculating, it pays to invest in quality. I do not see much of a chance for the dividend champions such as KO, WMT, JNJ, and others to go bankrupt. Of course they can produces smaller negative surprises.
    Oct 8, 2014. 08:18 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Still Sell Apple And Expect A Market Crash? [View article]
    In the long term, we are all dead. However, in the mean time we try to do our best. Since over the long term, the market has gone up, buy and hold has worked if you have had the time to ride the market roller coaster. Riding the roller coaster is easier when you are getting paid to ride. Buy and hold does not work if you panic and sell out when the market bottoms or you need to tap a significant amount of your equity when the market is down.

    If you are going to use buy and hold, it makes sense to only be holding quality companies that have increased their dividends for many years consecutively. David Fish publishes list of dividend Champions, Contenders, and Challengers. Having these stocks helps you to ignore the price during a big draw down because your dividend income keeps coming in and increasing.
    Oct 2, 2014. 08:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Defense Wins Championships: The Defensive Sector Anomaly [View article]
    Charlie, Excellent article and charts. I fully agree that you do not have to take big risks to make big returns over the long run. This article solidifies why a member of my stock club produced a return that was head and shoulders above everyone else and the market by optimizing utility picks. Second, volatility is not risk because everyone reacts differently and because when the big moves come, everything is positively correlated. That is, the assumed diversity is out the window.
    Oct 1, 2014. 03:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Myths About McDonald's Struggles [View article]
    John-Erik, Thank you for the good article. McDonald did well in the big 2008 downturn. When things get tight, its tough to beat the value that McDonald offers. Almost all McDonalds that I pass have lines almost all the time. I do not see the same lines at other fast food restaurants, except for Tim Horton in the morning. I am looking for a better entry price to go long. I believe patient investors will get a better price if McDonalds continues to disappoint.
    Oct 1, 2014. 02:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirees, Don't Count On Stocks To Deliver From Here [View article]
    Dale, I think retirees have to take control of their retirement and not totally rely on the market to save them. Some ways this can happen include: a) Learn to play both sides of the market so that the next bear market does not set you back many years, b) continually look for ways to develop new income sources. In today't ls world, you can be successful starting internet based business that you can operate from home, c) Take the time to learn to harness the power of options to generate more income at less risk than owning the market or individual stocks. d) Get more value for the money that you do have. A dollar saved is worth a lot more than a dollar earned. e) Get control of your spending.

    Just a few ideas.
    Sep 30, 2014. 10:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retired Investors: Learn The Success Secret Of All Great Value Investors: Part 2 [View article]
    Thank you Chuck for another excellent article. I think it's a lot easier watching a significant draw down in your portfolio when you do not need to tap your equity. If you have sufficient income without needing to tap your equity, you can be a lot more rational.
    Sep 23, 2014. 12:34 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We Can't Redefine Risk, It's The Price Silly [View article]
    Dale, This is an excellent article. A couple of things you should probably look at is the price sensitivity of each of your holdings during the last bear market and make a rough calculation of the draw down, if another bear market hits and you do nothing. This can be pretty sobering. Second, don't buy the idea that you can not time the market and bury your head in the sand. You can, in fact, reliably tell when the market has rolled over and changed a major trend. Instead of just mitigating the damage that a bear market will do to your portfolio, I think you should prepare yourself to profit from the bear market with various instruments.
    Sep 23, 2014. 08:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment