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  • When Compared To Isis, Alnylam's Valuation Does Not Make Sense [View article]
    Isis and Alnylam are both RNAi platforms, so given their similarities, I believed it made sense to compare the two directly in order to better explain why ALNY appears overvalued. Both companies point to their RNAi expertise and try to come up with early-stage discoveries that they can then partner with bigger pharmaceuticals.
    Dec 19, 2012. 10:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alnylam: No Approved Drugs, No Promising Candidates, No Justification For $1 Billion Valuation [View article]
    Yes, you're right that Alnylam has useful intellectual property (though much less now than previously due to the Tekmira settlement) which has value. However, for Alnylam to provide true proof-of-concept and rerate that IP, it needs to generate effective results in a real clinical situation, rather than simply in volunteer subjects.
    Nov 15, 2012. 07:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alnylam: No Approved Drugs, No Promising Candidates, No Justification For $1 Billion Valuation [View article]
    Yes, Alnylam does own 17% of Regulus shares post-IPO. That stake is worth ~$30 million. We will discuss Regulus more in our second article.
    Nov 15, 2012. 07:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alnylam: No Approved Drugs, No Promising Candidates, No Justification For $1 Billion Valuation [View article]
    Thanks. We agree with you that competition from Isis' TTR drug is another significant risk factor that the market may not have factored in. We will discuss Isis' drug in detail in the second part of our report.
    Nov 15, 2012. 03:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alnylam: No Approved Drugs, No Promising Candidates, No Justification For $1 Billion Valuation [View article]
    There may be a large difference between how healthy volunteers and sick patients react to the same drug. Alnylam has previously demonstrated robust clinical activity in volunteers that failed to translate to satisfactory results in a subsequent study. Time will well, although given the limited size and scope of Alnylam's Phase II TTR trial, it may be quite awhile before we see if the drug is effective in patients or not.
    Nov 15, 2012. 03:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alnylam: No Approved Drugs, No Promising Candidates, No Justification For $1 Billion Valuation [View article]
    Thanks for your comment. You are correct that Adcomm narrowly recommended approval of the drug, and the FDA may still approve it when it decides next year, though the significant safety concerns make approval far from a sure bet. A recommendation from the advisory committee does not mean that the drug will be approved by the FDA, given the 9-6 mixed vote, and it was the safety concerns that caused that mixed vote.
    Nov 15, 2012. 10:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oncolytics Sharply Overvalued Following REO 018 Trial Failure [View article]
    Please refrain from name-calling by saying that I am a hack and implying that I have less than 2 brain cells. Instead, I would appreciate it if you would address our arguments in the article if you disagree.
    Sep 17, 2012. 10:40 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peregrine: Bavi Results Are Overhyped And Inconclusive [View article]
    Certainly, the Chicago Multidisciplinary Symposium in Thoracic Oncology and ESMO would allow a late-breaking presentation that may nevertheless lead to a failed study. Not every late-breaking presentation has to be good data.

    Let's take a step back and review what our article said. It said that we haven't yet seen sufficient data to make the conclusions necessary that justify a $300 million valuation. This stock has gone up too far too fast based on an 8k and various management communications that haven't been sufficiently conclusive. And the last time this happened, with front-line NSCLC, investors were caught blindsided when the actual study data was released, as opposed to the preliminary reading.
    Aug 23, 2012. 11:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peregrine: Bavi Results Are Overhyped And Inconclusive [View article]
    If you'd like to donate to cancer research in order to contribute to the fight against cancer, this site may be helpful: http://bit.ly/NiY4Qj.

    I'd personally favor that relative to purchasing shares of PPHM, given that Bavi's progress has been relatively bumpy.
    Aug 23, 2012. 10:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Peregrine: Bavi Results Are Overhyped And Inconclusive [View article]
    If your retirement plan and 401K is long a large number of biotechs that were trading at 50 cents and in danger of delistings three months ago, you either need to ensure that you understand the intricacies of drug discovery so that you can respond to our arguments with coherent responses, or you need to find a new retirement planner.
    Aug 23, 2012. 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peregrine: Bavi Results Are Overhyped And Inconclusive [View article]
    Please refrain from wishing me to have lung cancer.
    Aug 23, 2012. 10:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peregrine: Bavi Results Are Overhyped And Inconclusive [View article]
    They worked out well. We were able to express our opinions and engage other investors in a much-needed dialogue about their valuations.
    Aug 23, 2012. 10:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peregrine: Bavi Results Are Overhyped And Inconclusive [View article]
    Oh, give me a break. Do you think we're some mob-funded Cramer-loving boiler room with financial backings from Michael Milken and Ivan Boesky?

    No, we just think PPHM is overvalued and is on its way to $1.50 or lower, because it never deserved the rapid ascent it experienced in the past two months.
    Aug 22, 2012. 01:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Peregrine: Bavi Results Are Overhyped And Inconclusive [View article]
    I'll address a few of these points.

    First, you argue that the ATM program is over because the last date of share increases reported was August 16. So we're to believe that as of a week ago, share dilution is finished at this company? Given the cash burn, it's unlikely that the dilution is anywhere close to over, regardless of passing comments that the CEO made at Wedbush.

    To the remainder of your points, you're mainly discussing items that the CEO is "expecting". He's expecting to find a partner. He's expecting to progress to Phase III trials. He's expecting to release actual concrete data on September 7th. PPHM management has been expecting many things from Bavi over the past 8 years. And yet investors keep being disappointed over and over again, whether it's disappointing results with Cotara or stumbles with Bavi's NSCLC Front-Line tests. After more than two decades of never having advanced to Phase III trials or found a partner, Peregrine has rightfully lost its ability to convince investors that its rose-tinted expectations, hopes and dreams are worth actual dollars of market capitalization. They no longer deserve our benefit of the doubt until the science has actually proven itself, which it has repeatedly failed to do.

    That's why the market has been receptive to our article. An examination of PPHM's history makes it clear that this is a management team that has been overly optimistic in the past, and its May data simply do not show enough hard data that investors can hang their hat on. No p-values, no HRs, a lack of discussion of base assumptions, too small a sample patient size, etc.

    Therefore, this Phase II cancer drug biotech that has been trying to bring its flagship drug into Phase III trials and find a Big Pharma partner for eight years does not deserve a $300 million market cap. It merely deserves option value. We'd be generous to give it a $100 million market cap, which equates to a sub $1.50 stock price.
    Aug 22, 2012. 12:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Peregrine: Bavi Results Are Overhyped And Inconclusive [View article]
    I'd reply, but your comment mainly is about whether I exist, which, indeed, I do. I discussed relevant points about the May data, whereas you simply championed that scientific results will win the day.

    I'm sure we'll see whether scientific results will help out the longs - an examination of Peregrine's history, as well as its May results, indicates that this stock price will be much lower sooner than later.
    Aug 22, 2012. 12:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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