Yesterday on Bloomberg, Mr. Laszlo Birinyi stated that we are in a bull market and the S&P 500 may surge 88% to 1700 over the next two or three years.

Now I have read many articles over the years by Mr. Birinyi and he is an experienced and smart investor. I happen to think he is wrong in this case. If by chance he is right, the stock market will then see another even more devastating crash. Why?

I am a big believer in the theory of reversion to the mean. I believe that a healthy resetting is always required for the stock market to continue a move upwards over long periods of time. The recent bear market certainly fell into that category. The S&P 500 finally reverted to its 25 year continuation trend line.

Please see the following chart:

Folks, there is danger ahead. The market, after 14 years,