Archman Investor

Hints of Risk Appetite Returning to the Stock Market?

Hints of risk appetite returning?

Where?

Maybe in the high yield corporate bond market and muni markets.
Maybe.

In stocks? I hope the author is not getting overly excited about a no volume rally off a low in November.

This seems to be a "real recession" we have here, finally.

That means rallies, then givebacks, followed by more of the same.

S & P at "trend" (based on 25 year continuation chart) is 750.

The farther we go up above 750, the farther we have to fall back to be at trend. If our government, Fed, and it's "partner" trading desks would stay out of the way and let the market function normally, the S & P would be at 750 now, and we could have 10% (dividends included) total returns a year for the next 20 years. Instead we will keep getting up 20%, down 10%, up 15%, down 30% returns going forward for the next 2 decades. They just cannot leave well enough alone.

The trend seems in place for those who can see it: Buy the S & P when it is within 50 points of 750, slowly short the S & P when it is over 900.

Unless these markets go back to being truly "free" markets, expect big returns on the up and downside over the next 20 years, netting investors nothing, traders who do well a very nice return, and the asset gatherers everything (since they just collect a fee for lousy performance anyway)