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Archman Investor  

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  • Buy Blue Chip Stocks Before They Become Blue Chip Worthy [View article]
    Good evening thanks for the comment.
    Investing in closed end funds is meant for long term investors where you are reinvesting the distributions from the funds every month, over and over for decades.
    Me personally: I always prefer to buy additional stock in the CEF's as long as their is a pretty decent discount to NAV. Typically when that it the case the yield on the CEF's is also quite high.
    Right now for instance Emerging Market Debt CEF's have gotten utterly destroyed over the past 12 months. I happen to own ESD which trades at a 18% discount to NAV & has a 9% annual yield. Of course the discount could keep growing & the price declining. But as in all investing everything carries risk. I don't mind buying a $1 worth of assets for 82 cents & getting paid 9% annually to do it.
    The bloodbath in emerging markets will pass someday and the Emerging Market debt CEF's will go back up once again. The hardest part about all investing is buying something when no one else wants it or when it looks like it is going to zero. Most investors buy something "after" it has gone up 500% and the media experts are then telling you to buy.

    Kind of like buying energy related names right now. Do I know when the rout in energy will be over? No I don't. Could energy related names fall another 50% from this level? Yes they could. Will most investors be buying a little at a time in one of the most beaten down market sectors? Of course not. They need to see it go up a few 100 percent and have CNBC telling them it is now time to buy before they buy shares.

    Best to you.
    Oct 2, 2015. 10:17 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Blue Chip Stocks Before They Become Blue Chip Worthy [View article]
    "Case in point: a boring investment in market cap leader XOM 25 years ago has returned 1570%. There's plenty of room for the big guys to run."

    Perhaps. XOM now rakes in $75 billion per quarter. Their market cap justified the expansion over the past 25 years.

    If anyone of the 4 companies mentioned (or others) can rake in min $75 billion per quarter then perhaps you might see V,MA, etc at a 600 billion valuation.
    Oct 2, 2015. 04:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Blue Chip Stocks Before They Become Blue Chip Worthy [View article]

    "Mr. Archman - would you kindly offer your take on 4 $1B-$10B stocks to consider for 20-30 year time horizon?"

    I unfortunately cannot. I no longer invest in individual stocks. My focus is solely on closed end funds that generate a reinvest able yield of 8.5% for my portfolio.

    Thanks and best to you.
    Oct 2, 2015. 12:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Blue Chip Stocks Before They Become Blue Chip Worthy [View article]
    "Let's go back to 1980. Had you bought Wal-Mart WMT, Coca-Cola KO and McDonald's MCD, you would be a pretty happy camper."

    True, but lets not. Past performance does not guarantee future results, ever.
    V, MA, DIS, SBUX are not exactly undiscovered.

    Other than SBUX, the other 3 are already over 100 billion in market cap thus their ability to exponentially expand the market caps similar to KO back in 1980 are slim to none. In other words if you think you are going to get a 10,000% return over the next 30 years psst..I have a bridge to sell you.

    Stocks that trade between 1 billion and 10 billion in market cap have the best chance of providing the sort of returns that KO,WMT or MCD provided investors if they had invested in those stocks in 1980.

    Thanks to the author for the article.
    Best to you.
    Oct 2, 2015. 12:14 PM | 23 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Big miss for jobs numbers [View news story]
    Like I have been saying for a long time:

    Notice....6 years since the so called recession ended, no one, not one single economist, government official, nobody...has used the phrase "Economic Expansion".

    Why? Because unless you are in the top 10% that owns 90% of everything else in this country...there is none.

    Labor participation rate worsens.

    Whatever. I don't understand how anyone can believe any of the numbers out there anyway.
    Oct 2, 2015. 09:09 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A CEF Portfolio For High Current Income With Capital Preservation [View article]
    Thanks Standard Chemist & Left Banker. I appreciate your responses and work.

    I have followed both of you for quite some time. My personal portfolio has evolved over time as I have gotten older and closed end funds make up the bulk of the portfolio as I am looking for more income generation during the last decade and a half of my working life.


    Think about ESD & BME.

    Currently using TZA (up 40%) & SPXS (flat) as a hedge right now though they might come off it we suddenly go into "Santa Claus rally" mode.

    Best to you both.
    Oct 1, 2015. 05:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A CEF Portfolio For High Current Income With Capital Preservation [View article]
    Hi all.
    Does anyone here (including the author) have any thoughts on Emerging Market Debt closed end funds??

    I know that area of the market is toxic right now but $ESD (for instance) is trading at an +18% discount right now.
    That's not to say it doesn't go to a +20% discount.

    $ESD feels hard to pass up here. It is trading at $13 down from $22 and it's 2009 crisis low was about $9.


    Best to all.
    Oct 1, 2015. 03:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investors: Stick To Your Process [View article]
    As always a top quality article by the author.

    No one can argue with the advice. Sticking with your plan is goal #1.

    The mindset for those of us who invest to create huge, re-investable dividend income streams must be rock solid. That is a huge factor. 75% of investing is an emotional/ psychological battle.

    As per many studies done of investor behavior: There are countless of individuals who claim they are long term investors. Yet when the next bear market comes, and the capital loss on paper starts to exceed what they thought was going to be the capital loss number...doubt creeps into the mind. Day after day the doubt grows and wouldn't you know it...that person ends up selling most of their holdings, figuring they are going to $0.

    Of course what happens next? The market stops going down for the next 8 years, you miss the first 500% rebound only to buy and maybe catch the last 50% move. Happens all the time to millions of people. Human nature.

    Do as David says. Stick to your plan / strategy. Keep those "know nothing" salespeople on the financial TV turned off. They truly know nothing.

    Only modify that portion of your plan if a specific company gives you a reason to change your outlook for the company itself.

    Thanks again to the author.

    Best to all.
    Sep 30, 2015. 04:28 PM | 47 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Things Getting Sticky At 3M? [View article]
    The only that matter for $MMM is the direction of the market & investor sentiment. It will trade with the market. It always does. Watch the general market & investor sentiment. If the bear market really gets going please be careful out there.

    From my 8/3/15 Instablog:
    Sep 30, 2015. 08:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks set for sharply higher open [View news story]
    End of quarter window dressing.

    Expected. Trend has changed. Sentiment has changed. 6 year bull market "almost" over.

    $IWM has only another $1 or so down to completely break uptrend since 2009.
    $SPY would have to break $180 to break it's trend since 2009.

    $IWM will not do it today as the powers that be need the market to close higher today. I would be watching very carefully into next week. IF $IWM goes $SPY will be right behind it as has been the case in every single bear market in US history.
    Small Caps always lead both up and down.

    Be careful out there.

    Best to all.
    Sep 30, 2015. 08:16 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MLP investors, worried over Williams deal, head for the exits [View news story]
    Considering this thread was started from a small series rather than a full blown article it is great to see everyone working together and discussing this issue and market sector.

    There is complete and utter carnage right now in the MLP, pipeline, midstream (whatever you want to call it) sector.

    I don't know where the "bottom" is nor does anyone else. These stocks, closed end funds, ETF's etc of the companies are down 40,50,60 % right now.

    I LOVE carnage like this. If you have a time horizon longer than the attention span of the average Millennial, you will definitely make some serious capital appreciation plus dividends over the next 10 years. Again I do not know where or when a bottom will be put in place though from my experience bottoms in stocks are a process not an event.

    At some point the stocks of these companies will stop going down and with any luck instead of just shooting right back up, go sideways for 6-8 months so a true bottom will be easier to see.

    As I have changed my investing focus to more income oriented investing over the past 6 months I recently started a position in FPL (Just added some more shares today as a matter of fact).

    These MLP's etc. are a necessary part of infrastructure. They are not all going out of business. Besides stock prices going down I see that Shell is not going to drill in Alaska now. I also as an investor, want to watch for bankruptcies OR takeovers by the companies that will survive.

    The news is beyond negative and everywhere you look people think this sector is worth almost zero.

    That is when you buy. What does the average American do?

    They wait until:
    The stocks go up 300%.
    Wall Street then tells then to buy.
    CNBC tells them to buy.

    We know better though. Buy fear. There may be a lot more to come but if you have the time frame we are more than 3/4 of the way to the capitulation point.

    Hang on and good luck to all.
    Sep 29, 2015. 04:28 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Periscope Is A Bigger Opportunity Than Twitter Itself [View article]
    "Too many people are Kardashian-wannabes and think creating some lame video is going to make them millions."

    James you said it.
    That's really it.

    That's our country now. You have way too many people looking for an easy way out. Our country suffers from "mediocrity" now. You have the productive taking care of the non productive and the non productive blaming everyone but themselves for their current situation.

    It all fits in with the current "bread & circuses" mentality here in the USA. When you look at the amount of:

    Income inequality.
    Horrific race relations.
    Child hunger in the US.
    Real unemployment.
    Lack of real net worth for 85% of the country's citizens.

    One would think there would be a whole heck of a lot more uproar seen around towns, states and the nation's capital.

    Yet...there is little if no uproar. Keep the masses occupied, entertained and believing that those in power really care about them, what do you have?

    Power. Control.

    Best to you.
    Sep 29, 2015. 08:21 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Periscope Is A Bigger Opportunity Than Twitter Itself [View article]
    "Wouldn't you agree it's easier to make money off "dumbed down zombies" than not?"

    "Absolutely. Would not argue that point.

    "So why are you upset?"

    Me? Nah. Or maybe I'm just tired of the zombies wasting their time and money on things that don't improve their lives, while trying to blame the productive of this country for all their problems.

    "Seems you're evoking your insecurities."

    Um yeah...sure that's it.

    Periscope will make money."

    Don't think so, but good luck with that.

    Best to you.
    Sep 28, 2015. 09:04 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Periscope Is A Bigger Opportunity Than Twitter Itself [View article]
    The majority of what you see on Periscope:

    "Watch me drive to work"
    "Watch me drive on the weekend"
    "Watch me sit at my desk at work"
    "Watch me cook a pork tenderloin"
    "Watch my doggie do tricks"
    "Watch me do laundry"
    "Watch my fish"
    "Watch me start a fire"
    "Sketching-girl with a very large sword" (Whatever that joke BTW)
    "Cleaning my office"
    "Watch me at the food court"
    "Come chat and watch the toads"

    On and on.

    Welcome to the world of never ending stupidity. Just another place where the narcissistic masses can come and pretend their lives have some sort of meaning by broadcasting their meaningless stuff in the hopes that someone or anyone will acknowledge their existence.

    Fact: If more Americans put even half the effort into the things that would improve their livelihood they would not be in such sad shape in every aspect of their lives. They might even stop blaming those of us who made a choice to succeed in life.

    I tell ya, the crap that is invented to keep people in a dumbed down, zombie like state is just mind boggling.
    Sep 28, 2015. 08:45 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MLP investors, worried over Williams deal, head for the exits [View news story]
    You buy when no one wants them.

    If you feel you want to sell when they are at the highs you say to the buyer: "Here take mine".

    The doom and gloom articles about the demise of an absolutely necessary part of our energy infrastructure are comical.

    Valuentum? LOL. Aren't they SA's #1 newsletter sales outfit?
    Sep 28, 2015. 08:20 PM | 34 Likes Like |Link to Comment