Archman Investor

Long only
Archman Investor
Long only
Contributor since: 2009
Company: .
"Archman, guessing you are in the red on FIT, so my sympathy, but I'm pretty sure shareholders aren't just "mom and pops" or individual investors. Hang in there. They monetize data and this is a winner."
My time for investing in stocks like FIT ended when I luckily (oh and it was luck believe me) sold all my JDSU & PMCS close to the top of the year 2000 bull market for huge profits.
If you want to know what I invest in just ask. Don't make yourself sound silly by assuming you have any idea what I own.
Thanks and best to you.
Well you never know!! LOL.
With this market anything is possible. Opportunity for all!!
Hey..Hi BD!!!
Wow. I am surprised. You must really need someone to talk to since you not only followed me to this board but you actually felt the need to talk about me. I'm flattered. Look I get it. It must have really resonated with you what I said about you not having any followers on SA. It is no surprise since you are arrogant and will not accept anyone's alternate opinion from your own.
If this is what floats your boat there is not much I can do to help you. I mean it's not like you even make an attempt to contribute anything to SA on your own, whether right or wrong.
Yet you criticize others for their articles and Instablogs?? Huh? I mean contribute something of your own if your think you know better than me or everyone else. Right? Am I wrong here? Write an article or put up some Instablogs. Make a statement and stand by it. What? No courage? Yeah I get it. I know your type.
But hey if you need someone to talk to I'll listen. I mean look if your in year 18 of a mid life crisis that started at year 40 and you need someone to chat with I am sure there are many people on here you can talk to.
But then again you state: "Its why very little can be learned from these boards"
and continue to comment on these boards. Hmmm. Now I am confused. Very strange. I guess you have a hard time making up your mind. I always knew that about the internet once it went mainstream in the 90's. You get ever person crawling out of their rat holes who normally I wouldn't give the time of day to in real life.
I would still recommend that you make a fake SA profile so at least you can follow yourself. One follower is better than zero followers especially when you are putting everyone else down for their efforts.
Oh and one more helpful really have to get rid of the 1970's Led Zeppelin wanna be rock star pick you are using as your profile pic. It is so dated with the hair & smoke in the air. It really just screams mid life crisis to reinforce the personal issues you seem to be dealing with. Those days are over you know. I mean it is 2016 not 1976.
Well anyway you may not even comment today because you tend to only post on days when the Fed is artificially driving markets higher. Those of us who have been warning people about the waning days of the bull market always look wrong on those days the market is artificially up.
BTW: How's BAC doing since you did your usual arrogant criticism on this comment? :
Oh that's right its down another 25% since then. I guess you would never dream of returning to that article and state you may have been wrong after calling that author "a fool". (your words)
Well maybe you're right. Maybe very little can be learned from these boards especially from those like yourself who contribute nothing to SA in the first place.
You have a great day now. I and others here at SA look forward to you adding something of value (right or wrong) you prepared on your own, that you are willing to stand by and discuss.
Not disagreeing at all.
I added the thing in there because it is just a shame that Wall Street knows just how to unload this thing to the public right before the market starts tanking so mom & pop investors get the shaft while Wall St & company execs get rich.
You are right though this is not
It just happen to be in the same Instablog when I originally put it together. I did not break it out separately.
No other reason.
Buying any stock, Disney included is a dangerous proposition when markets may be in (or in) a bear market.
Numbers, ratios, etc. etc. all that "feel good" stuff people use to try and rationalize buying a stock, is meaningless when compared to institutional/ investor sentiment.
If this is a real bear market selling will beget more selling. Nature of the beast. Always has been always will be.
Tough to say how DIS might perform in the coming months or years but one has to be aware of what "might" happen.
I did address this back in August :
Thanks for the reply.
I just did a quick chart from
The price probably reflects dividends paid but no reinvested (if one reinvests them)
I don't know where things end up but it seems pretty clear things are heading for the bust cycle in the market right now.
I think the Fed fueled bull market since 2009 is over.
Another perfectly timed Wall Street show. Get 'em public while times are good, fleece mom & pop investors. High of $50 now almost $13.
"Our father, who art in heaven
Hallowed be thy......."
Guess that's what it has come to for most.
TWTR, et. al. never looked so good.
Analysts huh?
Where have they been? See slide 3 when stock was back at $144 during early August:
Thank you to the author for the article.
"When genius failed" by Roger Lowenstein. One of my favorite books. Time and time again I refer to this book for there are many lessons to be learned from it, even 18 years after the collapse of Long Term Capital Management.
Or lack there of.
That is the real deal.
"my blue cross high deductible plan for family went from 540 to 1390... so enjoy your 200 lol most of my clients saw a 50% to 120% increase "
There is no question that businesses as well are really getting destroyed by Obamacare. The whole goal of Obamacare in the first place was "vote getting" by offering something to people paid for by others. That's how serfdom works. That is why the govt loves so many people collecting welfare, etc. Keeps people locked into serfdom (but that's a different discussion not to be had here)
The person who had minimal or no health insurance before Obamacare is certainly doing better that before but as we all know = nothing is free. Someone, somewhere is making up the difference.
The bottom line: Businesses are paying a lot more & if you are an individual of any are paying more cause they figure you can afford to pay more.
It's all about buying votes. Nothing more.
"Great stuff, Arch. Elevating pumping one's own articles to an art form"
I am assuming that was a slight against me? I mean it is not like I am writing articles and getting paid nor selling some sort of product when someone reads my Instablog. Maybe I am just trying to help people and give a different point of view.
Nothing wrong with making people a bit more aware. No?
UNP keeps chugging along huh?
The stock as fallen from it's high of $120 to a low of $70, bounced smartly to $77.....
I am sure all the buyers of UNP above $100 are thrilled about that chugging along.
Maybe in the end investor sentiment is really what drives stocks, not numbers and a Fed fueled market:
Not sure exactly where DIS ends up but I started looking at what might happen back on 8/21/15:
Food for thought considering Star Wars, etc.
Wait so I write about UNP when it is $84, it goes to $70 and I was wrong?
LOL. You disappear as the stock keeps going down (you did the same thing over BAC) the you come back as the Fed is essentially going to drive the market higher??
LOL. You have ZERO credibility. None.
I have no intention of responding to any more of your comments because you clearly are a troll and only post when the situation is in your favor. The fact that you have ZERO followers or people who are interested in anything you have to say speaks volumes.
My advice: create at least one fake Seeking Alpha account so you can make it seem that one person follows you or has any interest in what you have to say.
If you feel you need to get the last word here be my guest. There will be no follow up comment by me. There is no point.
"The lower gas prices benefit was sucked up by higher insurance premiums."
Exactly but no one is allowed to talk about it.
Everything is moot now. In my Instablogs of the past few months I have been trying to illustrate where some of the large cap dividend bubble stocks "might" end up going if the truth were ever allowed to rule the market.
You know what? It is never going to happen. The Federal Reserve continues (since 1995) to run the stock market. There is no real price discovery, capital formation, nothing.
There has been no economic expansion since the recession ended, just all the "experts & pundits" using the word recovery. The Fed was hoping to quickly ram through some rate hikes, not because they think things were good. No, because they needed some ammunition to start cutting rates once things started getting really bad.
Now I think they know they cannot do that. At this point stocks could go to a million. Heck why not? It is not a real market anymore.
I guess the real way to invest in this market is keep riding it up, every so often take some away and lock it up so you do not eventually lose it. At some point, some where in the future the market is bigger than the FED and this will all end. There is just no way right now to know when.
I am not putting any "confidence" in the article.
I just thought it might be worth the read.
You have been investing since what.....2013?
I have been investing for over 20 years now. Investing is more than following the usual milked headlines that are spun by the media. Investing means following ALL possible scenarios and keeping your mind open to all possibilities.
See I am sure you could provide links to 5 counter arguments written by the likes of AP, CNBC, Marketwatch, USA today or some other "main stream" media outlets that either outright lie (because their job is never to tell anyone anything more than the most basic info) or get their information from the massaged numbers that the govt puts out there.
While luck does play a part in investing, skill and the correct mindset is what allows people like myself to continually get through the full investing cycles decade after decade.
Most Americans do not. If they even have any money in the first place to invest (when they are not busy buying things they don't need, with money they don't have) they typically do not make it thru one investing cycle because:
A- They don't have a lot to begin with so they throw it all on black hoping for the big payout (that never comes) or
B- They always buy stocks at the top of the market & sell at the bottom.
My advice to you (with utmost respect): you have to live and breathe at least 1 full (2 preferable) market/ economic cycles to really consider yourself an investor.
Consumer credit is how much credit consumers have borrowed and owe to others.
"Every single share I own (and everyone else who owns any shares), extrapolated out using DCF (some of us learned in B-School). That's who got it. And with a 65% payout, that extra penny gives room for maybe an extra two or three pennies of annual dividend increase that wasn't expected.

Amateur question."
Ummm...It was just a joke. You gotta cut down on the coffee.
Revenue down 8% YOY.
Yep but that's a "beat". LOL.
At least they "beat" EPS by a cent. Who got that penny?
Amazing what passes for good news isn't it? 8% less money coming in the door. 8%. That is a lot of money.
We call that a "stick save" in the business.
Way to go PPT. If it was not so obvious it would almost be funny.
Just happen to see this article.
I wrote this back on 8/10/15 in my Instablog:
You may be right about $48.
"Ya, I graduated in 2014 with a finance degree lol I wasn't trying to take shots. It seems like if you don't have a masters, MBA or PHD you aren't in the front office, that's all I meant."
No no. Totally understand. Didn't think you were taking shots. The reality of 21st century: You can no longer go to college for a "passion" that does not pay unless you have a connection in that line of work. For kicks on a Sunday go to department stores and talk to the 20 somethings that work their and see if they are graduated from college. Then ask them what they studied. Enough said.
Unless you are going to college to actually get a degree that offers to some sort of shot at getting a job or starting your own business, people (men & women) would be better off going to learn a trade. The electricians, plumbers & roofers I know are doing great.
"While I agree with the first two points. I think the third point is most important. There are no incentives and it's too expensive to start a business because of government overreach. "
And that is the catch 22 of this country now. The entire US tax code is written for rich people and businesses. Wage earners? Forget about it. You are debt slaves. But....the problem with business now: unless you are raking in so much revenue (like AAPL for instance or some other major corp) trying to run a small to mid size business with employees is almost impossible. You almost have to run your business as a one or two person outfit just to keep it running and keep overhead from killing you.
Many people I know who run businesses are intentionally keeping them small. They would rather work harder to keep more and reap the benefits of owning a business than make the business bigger. How soon until government mandates that all workers only have to work 20 hours / week and get 4 months off a year? LOL.
In case anyone wants to read something interesting.
Forget that it happens to be on Zerohedge. It is written by a third party not affiliated with the website. I think it is well worth the read for anyone not completely drunk off the kool-aid.
Not even really worth responding to. I see you have one comment. You must be passing through.
If you really believe anything you wrote well there is nothing I can do for you.
Personally, politics hold no interest for me and I could care less who is named master & commander of the country.
Turn off the TV. Get some fresh air.
151K payrolls= mostly garbage jobs. We need to be creating 300K / month to keep up with population. Labor participation rate is still awful.
Consumer confidence: Most Americans are broke with little or no net worth. Of course they have confidence. They just don't care anymore. You only live once.
Consumer credit: That has to be one of the most abused numbers out there. Consumer credit= translation= DEBT! The media always spins this as a good number. Consumer credit is nothing more than never ending debt for most Americans.
Most reporting districts throughout the US have been in contraction already.
Thank you Mindseye.
I know as much as the next person. I am just trying to open people's eyes a bit wider. The average investor blindly follows the pied pipers without ever stopping to look around.
Thanks and best to you.
Thanks for the comment. I am just going by what I see. Your comment makes sense however the chart shows otherwise. Time and time again the S & P does revert to the actual long term trend line of value.
I am expecting it to get there again....someday. No idea when and quite honestly with the FED and world's central banks running the show who knows if and when that ever happens.
Thanks again.
The puke phase? Seriously?
This is nothing. This is not even a real bear market yet.
My just completed short Instablog on SPX:
While small caps & some mid caps are definitely in a bear market the large caps & large cap dividend stocks are very much locked in a massive bubble. While some like UNP, CMI, IBM have come down there are so many others like HD, SHW, MMM, etc that have a long way to fall.
Puke phase? No. That is for the end of bear markets. We are still only in a correction mode right now as the market is simply spinning it's wheels at the top here. We are no where near a bear market yet and have a long way to go.
Thanks anyway for the article.
"Not participating in the tech implosion: IBM"
From my July 25, 2015 Instablog:
Good article. I plan on holding RFI for all eternity. I had owned AWP but there was something about them I did not like (could not put my finger on it). I closed out the position.
I looked into IGR but never wanted it enough to buy.
Thanks again.