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  • Scanning The SA Family For Alpha: AceSwat [View article]
    * Do you think the market is ready for a major correction sometime this year?

    God i wish! My portfolio has already had a major correction this year and I would welcome even further correction to increase my holdings at even lower prices.

    * Do you believe that the economy is on the verge of another recession along with a bear market?

    Hmmm. I know I am going to get a lot of flak for this one. I don't believe the recession ever ended. We here are on SA are in the group that I believe are the successful ones in the USA. We have money to invest, we are building wealth, etc. Most Americans are not. Many many American families are still struggling in every way. Many work 2 & 3 jobs just to get by. We know that many of the jobs created over the last 5 years are of the lowest quality. We know that most Americans have little or no net worth.
    I think we never left the recession regardless of the govt massaged numbers & polling of .001% of Americans from time to time. Believe it or not many stocks are already in bear markets. The only stocks that still are not are the top S&P 500 stocks as they are the most widely held and invested in. Market breathe stats are confirming this. This will come to an end as well once sentiment changes.

    * Are you selling dividend growth stocks to keep in cash now?

    Heck no! I work, my wife works so we thankfully have a stream of income coming in to support our current life. Selling dividend paying stocks may defeat the purpose of owning them in the first place.

    *As a DGI'er, are you planning on buying more shares of dividend champs when the market corrects?

    Well I don't own any of the dividend champs. For those that do they fall into 2 categories: Those who first bought the stocks long ago and can tolerated a possible fall back to their trend lines of value (as I like to call them) and those who started positions between 2011 & today, who will have to endure capital paper loss for sometime.
    I have been trying to write about this situation covering a number of stocks:
    http://bit.ly/1VvCtDG

    *Are your cash reserves sufficient to give you a cushion so you won't fall into that panic mode of buying high and selling low?

    I don't keep cash reserves. On the first of every month all dividends received from the prior month + any infusion of extra cash I have laying around is invested to create even more dividend streams of income. I never buy high and sell low.

    Best to all and thanks as always to the author.
    Aug 1, 2015. 11:23 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3M Is Getting Whacked By The Strong Dollar; Get Out While You Can [View article]
    IT is more than strong dollar.
    MMM relies on a never ending bull market in equities. It will simply follow the general direction of the market.
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jul 31, 2015. 08:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil misses by $0.11, beats on revenue [View news story]
    Buy XOM?
    Maybe... My thoughts:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jul 31, 2015. 08:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Caterpillar: Long-Term Investors Should Add To Their Positions [View article]
    Interesting.
    Perhaps. Or maybe not.

    Worth a look?:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jul 30, 2015. 04:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent Buy - IBM [View article]
    brian:
    Correct. People should always look at longer time frames to get an idea of where a true trend line of value exists for a stock.
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jul 30, 2015. 11:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent Buy - IBM [View article]
    Best of luck to you.
    I personally do not invest in the "most widely held" and I think you bought IBM a bit early:

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jul 30, 2015. 08:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Own Hundred Thousand Dollar Investment Portfolio [View article]
    Congrats on your success.

    Your portfolio selections could easily be cut in half and you would still have the exact same diversity.

    IE:
    JNJ is in SPY & VHT while all that is in VTI

    You are not really gaining any benefit by owning all those.
    VTI has them all.

    Just saying, but if it works for you more power to you.
    Jul 29, 2015. 02:59 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Is The Time To Buy Twitter [View article]
    TWTR market cap is currently 10X their TTM revenue.

    There will be another bear market...someday. This and the high fliers out there will eventually trade down until their market caps are 3X their TTM revenue at most.

    History does repeat itself. We just cannot time it.
    Jul 29, 2015. 02:53 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Soon Till The Bubble Pops For These Stocks? [View instapost]
    Rope:
    The problem with using numbers and valuation metrics- They only apply to current time. What happens if UNP for example comes out at lowers guidance/ revenue, etc? Now your metrics instead of saying they are undervalued, are now over valued.
    Thus the stock then looks expensive and should be lower.

    Just be careful relying only on numbers & valuation. They can change faster than you can sell.

    Best to you.
    Jul 29, 2015. 08:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Not Rocket Science: STAG Is Now Grossly Mispriced [View article]
    $STAG is suffering from something I have been writing about recently:

    "Investor Sentiment"

    This is a perfect example of it. $STAG has been doing just fine, their company /earnings have been just fine. Even this so called threat of interest rate hikes from .0001% to .0002% in a structurally broken economy are actually quite meaningless.

    Then why is $STAG going down?
    Because once sentiment changes, selling begets more selling until it eventually stops.
    It doesn't matter what the numbers say. It is emotion. It is sentiment.
    My institutional buddy is selling.
    So is this guy.
    So is his other institutional buddy.

    On and on until sentiment changes again. I have been trying to drill this into the head of people who own all those mega cap stocks that think they will never go down again because some numbers are telling them everything is fine.

    Example: tell that to the people who own $UNP. The dividend bubble in $UNP (like some that have popped & many that will pop) for example popped at $120. Since then there is constant rationalization that the stock is cheap based on numbers, etc.
    It is not and here is what I wrote about:
    http://tinyurl.com/nqr...

    Sentiment will change for $STAG at some point.
    Jul 29, 2015. 08:23 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Dividend Growth Stock Portfolio For July 27, 2015 [View article]
    Thanks Eric for a good article and I really like those charts you included!!

    But:
    "The article says: "... overall the portfolio is projected to have an attractive total return of 72% over the next five years, which would equate to approximately 11.5% annualized return."

    In all seriousness and with utmost respect: You can "project" all you want but you could also end up with a 0% return over five year depending on the direction of the market. Considering we "might" be at the tail end of this Fed fueled bull market there is essentially only one direction stocks will go should that be the case.

    I right there with you as far as dividend investing and your portfolio is a good one so I do hope your projections come to pass.

    Best to you.
    Jul 29, 2015. 08:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Millionaires' REITs That Pay Monthly Portfolio [View article]
    "Probably right, time to bail on STAG. Every REIT I own today is up nicely but STAG, down 2.5% now. I'll stick around for xdiv tomorrow and likely sell. Would like to hear Brad Thomas's view on STAG now given the plunge in price today."

    NNN DOC WSR HTA, etc all down today as well. STAG is certainly not alone.

    STAG is not an isolated REIT going down. What is there really to talk about when it comes to price? We all do not have a crystal ball. I read over their conference call transcript. It read very positive to me. The reality is you cannot fight negative sentiment when people, institutions want to sell and that is exactly what is going on right now.

    Actually many, many stocks are in a correction & bear market right now. The US stock market is essentially being propped up by the 50 largest stocks by market cap (wait..haven't we seen this show before? Oh never mind) Then again the general public NEVER learns from history.

    I don't know where STAG is going but every month I DRIP more shares and build up the massive monthly dividend stream.

    Best to you.
    Jul 28, 2015. 04:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Hasbro Seriously Overvalued? Should I Trim It Or Sell It? [View article]
    Paul:
    Hi and thank you for the comment.

    I just want to clarify. My quick review of $HAS and many of the current dividend stocks in my Instablog postings are really just meant a cautionary flags. I mean we both know I have no idea what the future might or might not hold going forward.

    One thing I do know and is shown in the charts: Should real sentiment change and I mean bear market sentiment, every stock I have featured thus far has always reverted back to its long term trend line of value. I do not at all disagree with you that everyone is in the black here.

    But when black turns to red, then red to blood, that is when the 2 types of investors emerge: The one's that are true long term buy and hold investors, and the one's that have bought high, then eventually sell low after buying high, because they cannot take the pain of capital loss anymore.

    Funny thing is people use those terms like "The downside is limited" then 50% later to the downside they can't seem to figure out why it went down.
    The fallacy of investing is to concentrate only on the numbers game yet there have been so many studies out there, etc. that prove in the end stocks move mostly on emotion, institutional/ individual investor sentiment. Clearly we have been and for the most widely held stocks out there (like $HAS) a bull market that keeps going and going while many, many small & midcap stocks are now in full correction even bear markets. These smaller companies typically go down far in advance of the most widely held stocks.

    Based on what I see $HAS short term stock chart looks like an irrational tech stock from the 1990's. If I was personally going to buy $HAS it would be below $45/ share. That is only my opinion though.

    Like I said I don't know the future but it seems clear to me where things might play out should real sentiment change to the downside.

    Just an opinion.
    Thank you Paul and I wish you continued success.
    Best to you.
    Jul 28, 2015. 01:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Hasbro Seriously Overvalued? Should I Trim It Or Sell It? [View article]
    David:

    Something to consider:

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jul 28, 2015. 11:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Millionaires' REITs That Pay Monthly Portfolio [View article]
    "STAG is mentioned as having a margin of safety. Fidelity has a Equity Summary Score that indicates that of the nine analysts mentioned, 4 of them recommend a SELL on STAG. Should we ignore what analysts say about STAG? The S&P Capital IQ report shows STAG as being
    favorable on Return on Equity and Price to Book."

    Bob:

    With the utmost respect:

    These people know nothing. Analysts get paid some serious money to essentially guess. I the 20 years I have been investing I have never once gone by some analyst opinion nor taken them seriously. They are wrong more often than they are right & the average investor makes very little money from analyst opinions.

    Individual investors are better served to do their own DD and be long term investors.

    Again Bob, utmost respect to you but I think you are putting to much weight on people who in reality know little more than you or I about stocks. They just have the marketing departments to make us think they do.

    Best to you.
    Jul 28, 2015. 09:58 AM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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