Archman Investor

Regulators close four more banks, in California, Michigan, Minnesota and Missouri, bringing 2009's bank-failure total to 120. Combined estimated cost to the FDIC's Deposit Insurance Fund of today's five failures: $1.5B. United Commercial Bank, based in San Francisco, was the latest and largest closure.

Oh stop.
It doesn't matter right?

As Larry Krudlow, Michael Darda, Brian Wesbury and SA commentators like Stone Fox Capital would say:

"It does not matter, this is a lagging indicator"

BWAAAAHHH!!!

Keep on pumping guys.
I will keep telling people what they "need" to hear, not what people like you "want" them to hear.

compdivplan.com

Jobs Still Disappearing, But Confidence Is Returning

<<But things could be a lot worse, as the second chart shows. That's the so-called "Misery Index" that was invented in the late 1970s >>

LOL. Oh my god. This is classic Calafia Beach Pundit "everything is just dandy crap.
As per his own sentence, the Misery Index was "invented".
In other words it is bullshit. It is made up.
Another phony, nonsense item that is used as a rationalizing tool to offset the truth.
What freakin nonsense. This outright lying by this man is just beyond disgusting.
Trust me folks, unlike the 20% of Americans now unemployed and another 20% or so at poverty level to begin with, this author, along with his buddies, Larry the Krudlow, Dr. Mark Perry & Brian Wesbury have no concept, none, about the daily plight of average Americans.

What a disgusting display and pack of lies by this elitist.

Period.

Painful Unemployment Report

Way to funny from the kid who claims:
To manage money for friends and family.
Has a blog masquerading as an investment website.
Then (this is beyond absurd) admits thru the links on his blog to Marketocracy.com that his "pretend" funds essentially match the market (only making money in good markets and getting destroyed in bad markets).
This guy or kid is truly following in the footsteps of all the great asset gathers or analysts:
Lie thru your teeth, rationalize all news as good, collect your fees, even as your clients get screwed.
Maybe Stone Fox (sorry i just laugh when I say that name- its so important sounding) thinks he is related to Michael Darda or one of the other liars that will be on Krudlow tonight to keep telling people everything is ok.


On Nov 06 10:38 AM Stone Fox Capital wrote:

> lagging indicators... not much else to say about that

FOMC Statement: English Translation

Karl is a joy to read.
He must look out his shades every night and look for the dark lightless cars that slowly drive by his home. I know I would. This "game" is going to unravel. No question about it. There is no time frame however, so many average Americans who have decided that thinking for themselves is a thing of the past, are going to be stunned at some point.
The lies and manipulations keep building. I have no doubt in my mind it will all end badly and the real recession / depression we should have had for the past 16 months will have to be faced in its entirety in the coming future.
Remember: Ignore the liars who work for the powers that be, ignore CNBC for they are nothing more than paid liars, also ignore the asset gatherers both professional and wanna be (We see many of them here on SA).

These people all do one thing very well:
They keep telling people what they want to hear instead of telling the people what they need to hear.

There are two ways to look at the record daily bankruptcy rate of 6,200 filings (up 25.3% Y/Y): The glass is half-empty (the jump fits seasonality and is the second-smallest Y/Y increase in the past few years, but it's still grim) - or the glass is entirely empty.

Absolutely Jeff. The simple truth of the matter is on of my favorite sayings: "Things take time to occur"

During that slow burn, people are fed massive amounts of lies from the financial media, those associated with the markets like asset gatherers or others, and finally, those average Americans (or Cramericans) who are just god awful investors that they pray each and every day that stocks keep going up, never caring or understanding that the only money moving the stock market up is FED easy money.

Right now I have done the following:
I have taken over half my positions off that i bought at S & P 750 and locked in massive profits : check
I am locking in very nice gains for the year: check
I can look at my portfolio and see that it is at 2009 levels, not 1999 levels like the majority of average Americans: big check.

That last point is the real measure of a portfolio and how you manage it and this is what 90% of Americans do not understand. They flap their arms and believe the liars on TV then only look to their recent gains and convince themselves they are smart. When in reality and over a long term time horizon, the majority of Americans have no business being invested in anything unless they are CD's at their local bank.

Lets ask Cramericans how they made out on that CIT call by the guy with 2000 stocks in his head. He said buy buy buy, and the stock lost 99% of its value.
Zero accountability.

On Nov 03 07:22 PM Jeff Nielson wrote:

> The only possible way that this data can be looked at other than
> being 100% negative is if you accept the "spin" that "the worst is
> over" and all that is left is some residual damage from the "Great
> Recession".
>
> In reality, the U.S. Greater Depression is still in its infancy -
> and seeing bankruptcies ALREADY at this level (despite how difficult
> it is to execute a personal bankruptcy in the U.S. now) is terrible
> news.

A Look at Annual Real GDP Growth

The author wrote:
<<Update: Just to be really optimistic for a change, if Brian Wesbury is right and Q3 real GDP is later revised up to 4% (from 3.5%), and if Scott Grannis is correct that today's ISM rebound results in Q4 real GDP being as high as 5%, the annual decline for 2009 real GDP would be -2.25% instead of -2.4% as shown in the graph.>>

What have I been saying all along? Look who the author is best friends with? Brian Wesbury. Scott (Calafia beach pundit) Grannis.
You might as well throw Larry Krudlow in there too, cause he is best friends with him as well. What do we know about all these men? Their job is to rationalize every single bit of news as good news.

Fact: The latest GDP report was the result of government spending, in an ongoing process of mortgaging at least the next 3 generations worth of debt. Without the massive amount of government spending going on for the past year, GDP would be negative 4% every quarter.

If the government had spent nothing over the past year on the problems in this country, and just let the process work itself out the following would have happened:

A real God awful recession, maybe even depression would have taken place. It would have reset not only the economic values in this country enabling this country to rebuilt and prosper over the next 100 years, but also would have reset the values of the people in this country. We would actually have to think and move away from quantity to quality. Move away from such meaningless nonsense such as their I-Phones, and how many times a day they post on their FaceBook pages about the meaningless things in their lives, such as why they are feeling tired today or when pathetic women write about how they cannot understand why their kids are brats, etc. (Hint: try spending less time on Facebook trying to appear important and more time with your kids)

Right now there are some individual businesses that are doing well, mostly very small firms that aren't completely reliant on the overall economy, but most businesses are getting by only by cutting costs and cutting staff. Real revenue is still going down, a lot.
As per the WSJ this morning, AIG has now missed 4 dividend payments to the gov't yet the stock has been a bottle rocket. So wait, they cannot pay the gov't yet people are putting money this thing?
Also, business bankruptcies are now reaching an all time high and increasing even faster.

Again, these are facts, I present these items to those who are not brainwashed by the likes of Dr. Perry and his friends on Wall Street.

Remember, these people have one job and one job alone:
To keep telling you what you want to hear, not what you need to hear.

Nearly two-thirds of U.S. money managers are bullish on stocks through the middle of next year, Barron's fall survey finds. Money managers expect three sectors to outperform: tech energy and health care. They're bearish on financials and consumer cyclicals, and netural on oil. Top stock pick: Microsoft (MSFT).

Simple truths:
Fact: Asset managers lie.
Fact :Many asset managers are nothing more than con men who are good at selling. They often get their MBA's "after" they are hired by a firm.
Fact: The game is not about asset management. It is about asset gathering and collecting fees of the assets under management.
Fact: These asset managers are actually horrible managers of money. They can only make money in bull markets and 95% of them have no idea how to protect a clients money in a bear market nor do they try.
Fact: Asset gatherers know that there is a sucker born every minute. They lose no sleep over the billions of dollars they lost for average Americans.
Fact: Ignore the very same people who have never seen any of the bad times coming, both in 2000 and in 2008. Instead they use the financial media to lie and cover up for them.
Fact: All financial companies, brokerages, and companies such as Morningstar et al, are all in collusion to pump the stock market and literally steal money from the average American even when they know the outcome will be horrific.

And to this date.....no one has the courage to expose or stop them.

compdivplan.com

CIT's bankruptcy filing, including a full listing of its creditors. CIT lists $65B in liabilities.

We all try and hope that somehow, somewhere, this all matters to average Americans, but alas it doesn't.

Want to see what America has become? Just spend an hour or so perusing television and the various channels.

Sad as it may seem, we have completely lost our way as a country and people. Quantity over quality is all that matters and the things that are given the most importance in our lives are based almost solely on stupidity and brainwashing.

Very sad indeed.

Bespoke with a look at recent 2%-plus down Fridays and how things played out the following Monday.

It really means nothing.
With the FED / Treasury and our gov't blatantly manipulating the stock market there is no way to predict what may or may happen.

What is with this "Bespoke" company anyway? I see them featured all the time as if they are some important investment news outlet. Since when is re-hashing data and passing it off as fresh count as news?

Market: Spooked Today, But Panic Attack Is Likely Temporary

Not even worth a real comment here. Just more of the same from the author who rationalizes every piece of news as good for his asset gathering buddies.

BTW another half dozen banks just went under tonight.

Yeah, everything is good.

Getting Growth Back on Track Could Be Very Rewarding

Concrete:
I said and meant "the firm" he was employed at is an asset gathering firm. Not him personally. Trust me, I am not worried about being slanderous.
The author was an economist for that firm. His job was not to grow assets, yet I am sure he like everyone else at that firm was paid from monies collected from individuals.
thanks


On Oct 29 09:07 PM concrete guy wrote:

> Archman; the majority of CPB's career was spent working for "a Pasadena-based
> manager of fixed-income funds for institutional investors around
> the globe". Note the words "fixed income funds". Your characterization
> of him as a man "who's only job is to grow the asset base and collect
> fees regardless if they lose everyone money" is a slanderous distortion
> based on what????
>
> Well, good luck with your role as SA policeman. Keep working hard
> to squash any hint of optimism that might creep onto this site.

Mike Shedlock has a hard time seeing why markets went giddy over today's Q3 GDP data: "The government sloshed trillions around and yet disposable income is down, jobs are horrendously weak, and the only reason GDP rose is wasteful government spending, cash-for-clunkers and extremely unaffordable housing tax credits whose effect is soon going to start diminishing."

Spoken like a true Wall Streeter. Well, you are trained for a career on Wall Street and are an analyst, so you fit the bill of telling people what they want to hear rather than what they need to hear.

Supposedly managing money for family and friends, and having a free blog masquerading as a professional asset manager site is cute, but quite silly to say the least.
Thank you for providing a link on your site to the Marketocracy site that tracks your "portfolio". Judging from the performance, you truly are a great asset manager: You make money only in bull markets, just like everyone else does, but in bear markets you have absolutely no idea how to protect your clients money and help them preserve wealth.
So yes, congrats. You truly belong on Wall Street.
All the best and keep on pumping!!!


On Oct 29 05:54 PM Stone Fox Capital wrote:

> it isn't about the quality but that the amount was better then expected.
> Fight the trend all you want. By Q4/Q1 the quality will be a lot
> better. What will the excuse be then?

Getting Growth Back on Track Could Be Very Rewarding

Concrete guy:
This particular author as well as others that he follows and knows personally, are part of an elitist group that has the agenda of telling people what they want to hear, rather than what they need to hear. They are bold faced liars who spin every single piece of news as good news, to deceive those who are less informed into believing everything is fine. Review his articles and you will easily see this. This particular author was a former economist at a large asset gathering firm, who's only job is to grow the asset base and collect fees regardless if they lose everyone money. That is the nature of Wall Street and this author was and still is loyal to that world.
As far as being critical of others personally i am not sure of who you mean.
I re-read my post and I am sorry if you thought i was whining. My post was based on fact and unlike the author, I do not attempt to massage the truth in order to hide just how horrible the facts really are.
Let me be clear about something to you or anyone on here.
I may be in the top 10 as far as commentators on SA who have positive comment reviews, however I do not ask anyone for their "thumbs up" comment reviews, nor do i lay awake at night praising myself for all the positive comments I receive. Obviously people know that 90% of the time I speak the truth and do everything I can to expose those who's job it is to fool average Americans, that is why they give me a thumbs up.
Secondly I may have 147 followers on SA, yet I ask for no one to follow me. Again I do not lay awake at night thinking about how great I am that 147 people care about what I have to say. I have better things to do than that. Unlike the Facebook, worker drones that believe people want to hear about every useless thing in their lives, I don't waste my time with that crap.
That is probably why my portfolio is at 2009 levels (where it should be) unlike average Americans who cannot understand why their net worth is at either 1999 levels or has vanished completely.

Once again, I believe in telling people what they need to hear, not what they want to hear.
Today's GDP report was based completely on government intervention and spending. Unemployment (the real number) is over 20% now. There are more people on food stamps and living out of cars than ever before in our nations history. Our gov't is again extending unemployment benefits because things are "so good" now and the recession "is over".
The deceptions never end, but when one takes the red pill and sees the truth, Wall Street, and the media for what it is, then you will always make money and stay one step ahead of them.


On Oct 29 06:08 PM concrete guy wrote:

> Archman: I just don't get all the personal invective directed at
> this author and others on this site. Your post above is more whining
> than thinking. Why hurl insults at anyone who voluntarily publishes
> open and honest opinions? Why be uncivil when you express your disagreement?

Getting Growth Back on Track Could Be Very Rewarding

Heres some "inside thinking" for you Mr. "Every day is a sunny day even as average Americans are living on the street":

The GDP report was nothing more than a massive report on government spending. They are completely mortgaging away the future of this country instead of allowing the economy to reset on it's own. This will, without question prolong this recession and prolong any real recovery.

Of course you have not a care in the world as your bank accounts are chock full of cash from your previous gigs at various high paying places of employment, but for average Americans, these are the worst of times.

Don't believe me? Go for a long walk in an average middle class neighborhood and spew your lies about how everything is rosy and great (per your rationalizations in your previous articles).
Somehow I do not see you surviving your walk down the block.

Dissecting the 'Rosy' Q3 GDP Data

Thank you for the honest and factual article.
Expect many negative comments from those who have no idea how to invest, and who desperately "need" stocks to keep going up to eventually break even (someday).(Think Cramericans)
I mean considering that after a decade, the majority of American's portfolio are still back at 1999 levels, that is pretty bad.

I have not been home much during the day, so I have missed much of the arm flapping that I am sure is taking place on CN"BS".

They try and rationalize that the government can just mortgage away a few generations worth of future real GDP growth, just to prop up our very sick and very indebted current economy and generation at this current time.

Morons one and all running our country right now. Hey but what the heck, our general population does not mind, right?
Let them buy I-Phones, play 24/7 on Facebook and give them reality TV and all is right with the world.

I don't know which is going to be more sad in the near future: The US finally going down the tubes on its own finally providing the necessary reset we need to begin anew OR the 200 million US citizens that are going to be standing around looking at each other, completely dumbfounded and asking each other "Gee how did this happen?"